There are also people who have traded a lot and might be successful in their own approach or domains but just because they dont understand your reason for doing something then it must be gambling. Its not how they did it and how they learned it therefore its wrong!
How long did it take you to realize that you were a gambler?
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
Namath's definition is incomplete.
Any correct definition of "gambling" includes "probability of win/loss", not just risk of loss. (Namath went to 'Bama. How smart can he be?)
what do you mean by ‘probability of win/loss’?
empirically ascertained ratio? as in: if a,b and c are present then XYZ advanced 7 out of 10 times in the past? so you P(win) = .70 if you go long? or something along those lines?
Yeah, met him when sitting down....When you go for a walkabout, ever run into Crocodile Dundee? What's he like?
The probability of win/loss and the payout (odds) in gambling are fixed and not in your favor. Take Roulette for example... the probability of winning is either 37:1 or 38:1, but the payout is only 35:1. The diff is the house "edge". That is if you play long enough, you're supposed to lose everything. (That's how they build those huge hotels and monuments to decadence.
) You're only hoping to prevail in the short run in spite of odds against you overall. Some people call that "entertainment".In trading, the probability of win/loss as well as the "payout" (reward) are variable and NOT "fixed and against you". You can put everything in your favor by what you know and how you behave.
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but how do you determine what the probability of win/loss is? a success ratio of a set up determined via a backtest? a personal 'feel'? how do you distill it?
You can try to figure a "success ratio" by checking out your correlations through past charts and see how many work and how many fail. Knowing a "percentage" on that isn't especially useful, however. You can have success if your wins are only 40% if the reward-to-risk is often 3:1 or so and you limit the size of your losses. Years ago I sometimes kept track of percentage wins, but I haven't done that for a long time. I can have a notion and quickly check it out over past charts and know whether it's good enough to put money on or not. (One of my favorites surprises even me. Almost every time I see it, it works.)
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WELL, as a kid/never considered myself a gambler; but did gamble for a few years in a pool hall.Comissions were to hi back then to trade. As far as today, trading /investing never has been gambling, no matter how many times the WSJ says it is/LOL...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Some people confuse high probability with infallibility+ gambling with stupid risk.Stupid risk in trading is not gambling/its just stupid risk/LOL Good question
How did you "gamble" in a pool hall? Did they have slot machines? Keno?
(Playing pool for money isn't gambling. I did plenty of that myself.)
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WELL , actually since a cop occasionaly stuck his heads in that pool hall;
he may have not considered gentlemen playing for $00.25s gambling. A REALTOR friend told me if I bought a cheap home on his lake subdivision ''thats gambling''[ I laughed to myself ]+ asked him ''how could that be gambling??''
He says ''that house has been moved.'' So thats not gambling thats stupid risk!!LOL
Strange neighborhood; I never bought the moved home cheap + the dam broke later/flood. Has a happy ending his wife planted tomatoes in the damp lake bottom
