How long did it take you to realize that you were a gambler?

[Scataphagos]

i like joe namath’s simple test

it’s gambling if:

a. you have to pay to play or risk losing money to play

b. you win money if favorable outcome occurs

but not all gambling is created equal. there’s advantage play and there’s uncontrolled gambling against very bad odds

where do you fit in on that scale?

Namath's definition is incomplete.

Any correct definition of "gambling" includes "probability of win/loss", not just risk of loss. (Namath went to 'Bama. How smart can he be?)

 

[themickey]

Most traders lose early on in their experience. That's because they're trading on hope instead of knowledge.

If you trade with "proper knowledge and discipline" (easier said than done), then you WILL NOT HAVE LOSING STREAKS!

Years ago I once had a string of 9 consecutive losers. I have a friend who trades and once had a string of 14 losers. That was waaaaay back when.. before we really understood.

Now... I should NEVER have a string of consecutive losers... though I may have a "cluster of maybe 4 losers". When I get a cluster of losers, I recognize that I'm probably "trading around the wrong bias". That is, I'm "buying the dip" when I should not be... or I'm "shorting strength when I should not be". It doesn't take 10 losers to figure that out.

My real live frequent experience: I'll sometimes hit a very strong brief profitable run then give some back.
I'll get whacked hard other times and if living through the pain I'll make it back quickly.
So, I'll have sometimes 2-3 weeks of losses (did so very recently) and then it comes gushing back in.
So, the point being, it is hard to control profits or losses for me because trading is always about give and take, profit follows losses & vice versa continually.

 

[Scataphagos]

My real live frequent experience: I'll sometimes hit a very strong brief profitable run then give some back.
I'll get whacked hard other times and if living through the pain I'll make it back quickly.
So, I'll have sometimes 2-3 weeks of losses (did so very recently) and then it comes gushing back in.
So, the point being, it is hard to control profits or losses for me because trading is always about give and take, profit follows losses & vice versa continually.

No offense intended, but it sounds to me like your methodology needs more work.

 

[themickey]

No offense intended, but it sounds to me like your methodology needs more work.

Oh, what sort of pa returns were you expecting on trading bank?

 

[Scataphagos]

Oh, what sort of pa returns were you expecting on trading bank?

Pardon? I don't understand your question.

 

[themickey]

Pardon? I don't understand your question.

Returns per annum.
Higher the risk, higher reward, which translates to higher volatility.

 

[Scataphagos]

Returns per annum.
Higher the risk, higher reward, which translates to higher volatility.

Years ago I thought "proper trading par" to be 20%/year. I traded mutual funds and a timing service for clients averaging 41% compounded, for 18 years. (I often heard, "that can't be real", "that can't be possible"). I had a software package where I had to ask the writers to expand certain fields because the program wouldn't graph properly.... They said, "never heard of such a thing". Their programmed field maximum allowed for "only" about 8,000% within their time limits. All of that was before there were leveraged and inverse funds/ETFs... all done with "Price TA", sector rotation and Relative Strength Analysis.

Now days we've got leveraged choices up the wazoo... so I can't quantify anything about "volatility" and expected "per annum" returns.

 

[themickey]

No offense intended, but it sounds to me like your methodology needs more work.

Trading is a continual learning curve, yes, always working to improve.

 

[Scataphagos]

Trading is a continual learning curve, yes, always working to improve.

That you have good strings of success is a good thing. Worth your while to figure it out more so that you don't have bad strings. It's doable. Believe me.

 

[Scataphagos]

Trading is a continual learning curve, yes, always working to improve.

You can get to the point where you have 60%-ish win rate with always 3:1+ profit potential. That is, you make the plays where you can imagine/see where you "might make 3:1 your risk". Many will break down before that, but some will go for much bigger gains. THAT's how you're supposed to be playing the game. And with those odds you can't possibly lose unless you get brain lock.