How is ''trend trading'' any different from 'chaser trades'???
- Thread starter spanish89
- Start date
Price often stays in ranges, where all breakouts turn into headfakes, and trend trading gets you killed.
When the market goes from trend to range, you need a way to stop trend-trading and either stay in cash, or start range-trading. You also need a way to know when it shifts back to trending again. Otherwise you'll lose during the one market phase what you made during the prior.
Quote from spanish89:
ALoha, this is 1 thing that i am seriously seriously struugling with now that i ahve had to start doing intrad-day trades on oil, as its no longer 'midterm direction' tradeable!!
Since July oil was an obvious sell it was going down below 100, so all you had to do was ONLY SELL, eneter sells during the day of the spikes and hold for few mins to hours (with giant stoploss).
Trend was obvious down, and so all you had to do was just make sure you had a big enough stoploss, and you were guaranteed to make 100s ticks per day selling.
Now however oil has become a 'ranging market, with severe intraday spikes'!
But so my main question is how do you distinguish ''trading the daily trend'', from 'doing 'chaser trades'??
Since when i look at the chart, see that oil has fallen $2 or 3dollars down in absically a straight diagnonal line, that should mean that you wiat for a dip and then buy at the support level, as it wil be getting pullback.
However for the last 2weeks nearly everyday the ONLY way you could have made money trend trading would have been by gambling using chaser trades!!
Whene you see a trend that is there and as happened, on what basis can you distinguish CONTINUING to trade in that direction and just hope that the trend doe scontinue and not start to pull back,
from that just being a chaser trade???
Ive attached a screen shot to show what i mean....
For the fractal you show, there are three places to look:
1. Even harmonic step functions.
2. Linda Rashski (sp)
3. The closed thread called SPM boot camp. There you will see a person who has a chart like yours and an indicator "tuned" to the chart fractal. jahajee may be his handle. What he did was some "tuning" that lets him trade intraday to pick off the turns because he has price and the indicator histogram in synch. reverse engineering or playing with the two variables, fractal duration and indicator non bridging, can keep you in any market and on the right side all the time.
If you look at the pennant on the S&P Itermediate term or position trading term, you can get a glimpse of the next couple of days.
My comments apply in the sense of having a neutral bias and from the viewpoint of making what the market offers as the offer is made segment by segment.
As you see, there are these plateaux and each is followed by a "blow out" series of rapid price shifts.
If you just want fast money and only occassionally, you can just trade the blowout period occassionally.
the talking heads have a long bias and so they see good (long} and bad (short) days. I do not understand their specific commitment to having to be this way. But it is certainly entertaining on TV.
There are some big "blowout" shifts coming up. One may be more related to election polls shifting. as Congress does its thing, there may be some "indictment" "blowout" days as well. News stuff.
Price can do one of the following at any given time.
a) dance inside a range
b) trend
c) do head fakes
It is your job as a trader to
a) determine which state we currently in
and
c) react
TV
PS: did you react to the missing b
a) dance inside a range
b) trend
c) do head fakes
It is your job as a trader to
a) determine which state we currently in
and
c) react
TV
PS: did you react to the missing b
Arggghhh this market is really fucking me off ovr the last few days, cos baiscally the only way i could have made money would to have gambled by seeing that the oil and dow have been sliding so much, and so then instea dof accepting that i missed it, i would have had to just plonk on sells then and just hope that the market kept sliding even more oversold.
I instead waited till down spikes, and then bough it for the pullback, but it just keeps sliding down and down!
I instead waited till down spikes, and then bough it for the pullback, but it just keeps sliding down and down!