How is this strategy possibly sustainable?

wxytrader said:
You guys are missing the subtly of my argument...I'm not saying the P/L are different I'm saying the probability of P/L is different.
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I still ask you to show the setups you exactly mean, because your crypto statements can be misunderstood.
Ie. which one has the 90 strike, which one has the 110 strike etc. etc. Please fill it in optioncreator, save it, and post the link or the screenshot, so that everybody easily sees what exactly you mean. To stop stealing the time of the participants here...

You had claimed this:
wxytrader said:
The 90/110 bear call spread will outperform the 90/110 bear put spread 4:1
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Quanto said:
I still ask you to show the setups you exactly mean, because your crypto statements can be misunderstood.
Ie. which one has the 90 strike, which one has the 110 strike etc. etc. Please fill it in optioncreator, save it, and post the link or the screenshot, so that everybody easily sees what exactly you mean, to stop stealing the time of the participants here...

You had claimed this:
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I know ..and on Christmas eve..
 
wxytrader said:
I know ..and on Christmas eve..
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Back on post#45 or so, dest gave you his lifeline to understand. I saw it. He was doing what I would do if I were in his spot, which is speak to ye in that which you would understand, and have you adsorb it.


 
wxytrader said:
You guys are missing the subtly of my argument...I'm not saying the P/L are different I'm saying the probability of P/L is different.
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Quoth the idiot.

How can equivalent structures have different probabilities?

I will accept your absurd argument if you can quote the mid on the NDX Jan 16 forward.
 
You both are being trolled and losing.


upload_2023-12-25_9-12-30.jpeg
 
wxytrader said:
I am referring to selling option because the probability of profits when buying options is horrendous...selling a credit spread is always preferable imo to buying a debit spread.
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There is no difference between credit and debit spreads. Generally ppl source the OTM spread due to perceived liquidity.

A call credit spread = the same strike(s) put debit spread bc puts are calls and calls are puts. When we discuss the box it's bc cs are = ps. A box is a cs and ps. Another way to look at it is a synthetic long at x, synthetic short at y (long box). Or a guts strangle and an outside strangle.

There was a guy at Quad Capital (prop firm) that was a retired NYSE floor broker and would only short guts strangles because the credit was juicy. Dude had a $6MM house on Long Island so maybe he's right?

The synthetic = the forward. If you look at the box as a long and short synthetic at different strikes then it's easier to understand the importance of the synthetic/fwd in pricing relationships.

The options are marked to the forward at the date you're trading.

Long stock + put = call (marked to fwd).
Short stock + call = put

Calls are puts...

You're explicit that credit spreads are better bc you don't understand arbs. It's not that arbs are persistent or prevalent as they are based on counter-party to flow (you are flow; initiating as price taker).

So, there is no problem with your ignorance of the fungibility of calls to puts or credit to debit. I mentioned earlier that calls appear overpriced relative to puts if you are simply looking at AVGO shares and not the synthetic. It's meaningless to you as you're simply trading the prevailing price as a punt in shares. You're not going to go broke bc you've chosen a cs over a debit spread. It's just stupid to die on that cross.
 
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