How is retail day trading anything but a gamble?

Sekiyo said:
We don’t care about you o_O
Views are not yours.
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Well, NOT according to @themickey who placed importance on "VIEWS". To directly quote him:

"7000 views in this thread, there ya go mate, an audience to swing to. :)"

I guess his audience estimates are being surpassed! CONGRATS!

PS. @Sekiyo Spoken like a true Zen Master...
 
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Dandr39 said:
I have to admit I've only just started learning to trade/invest myself. I'm quoting books and courses I've been working through. It is a sweeping statement, but there seems to be a lot of evidence that supports the Efficient Market hypothesis (the idea that all information about a securities price is already 'priced in'). Any new information is rapidly priced in long before any retail investor can exploit it, ie, almost immediately.
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The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a bit of a joke when you think about it, how can one ever know that every bit of information is reflected via price? One might argue every known bit of information is reflected in the price, but known to who?

There was a discussion on this recently by the 'founder' of the theory (Fama) and probably the biggest name in Behavioural Economics (Thaler) -


Basically you cannot ever test the Hypothesis, so it is pretty worthless. That said, if you believe that all information you need to know is contained in the price..... Well, then one can study price and use that to determine likely future moves and ignore everything else...
 
mrtimharrington said:
Well, then one can study price and use that to determine likely future moves and ignore everything else...
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...Ok, will do.
i like to use the 200sma as a target sometimes
when taking a trade between the fitty and 200,
in the direction of the 200,
know what i mean vern?
Fitty to 200 9899.png

 
mrtimharrington said:
The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a bit of a joke when you think about it, how can one ever know that every bit of information is reflected via price? One might argue every known bit of information is reflected in the price, but known to who?

There was a discussion on this recently by the 'founder' of the theory (Fama) and probably the biggest name in Behavioural Economics (Thaler) -


Basically you cannot ever test the Hypothesis, so it is pretty worthless. That said, if you believe that all information you need to know is contained in the price..... Well, then one can study price and use that to determine likely future moves and ignore everything else...
More...
Edward Thorp said market is not efficient and we need to figure out the efficiencies that give us edge over the market.
 
mrtimharrington said:
The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a bit of a joke when you think about it, how can one ever know that every bit of information is reflected via price? One might argue every known bit of information is reflected in the price, but known to who?

There was a discussion on this recently by the 'founder' of the theory (Fama) and probably the biggest name in Behavioural Economics (Thaler) -


Basically you cannot ever test the Hypothesis, so it is pretty worthless. That said, if you believe that all information you need to know is contained in the price..... Well, then one can study price and use that to determine likely future moves and ignore everything else...
More...

You are indeed correct, EMF and both Fama are an Absolute Joke! For better insights: http://www.edwardothorp.com/

Fama is a loser, and Thorp is a winner...
 
kmiklas said:
With all the talk of resistance levels, moving averages, trendlines, etc., what stops a big player from dropping a massive trade and smashing your position?
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because he will not make money doing that.

the bigger player wants to make money and he will not get it by destroying everyone in the market place
 
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