How is retail day trading anything but a gamble?

[ironchef]

Absolutely, at the tick level the market is virtually random, all the price action is generated by totally unpredictable buy and sell orders.

I mean don't even try to trade a head and shoulders formation on a tick by tick chart, for example, it won't work.

If nothing worked at a tick to tick level, how did Livermore make his millions reading tapes?

I am not arguing because I agree with your statement that the shorter the time frame the noisier the price movements.

I always wonder whether it is possible to filter out the noise and pick out the signals?

 

[smallfil]

There is only one truism in the stockmarket, it is big moneyed hedge funds, banks, brokers, mutual funds who move the stockmarket. Retail investors and traders do not have enough monies to move the stockmarket. Yet, legions of traders think their trades affect stocks they trade. It does not. You do not matter. What is important and you should realize if you want to make monies is never go against the trend. The big boys will run you over like a pancake and laugh at your silly ass.

 

[speedo]

Trying to explain price development on ET can be like trying to explain a magic trick to a cat.

 

[Tradex]

If nothing worked at a tick to tick level, how did Livermore make his millions reading tapes?

Jesse Livermore made the bulk of money holding a trend, not scalping (or even day-trading) stocks.

 

[Overnight]

Trying to explain price development on ET can be like trying to explain a magic trick to a cat.

Cats ARE the magic trick.

 

[speedo]

Jesse Livermore made his fortune holding a trend, not scalping (or even day-trading) stocks.

Jesse Livermore didn't have a computer. If he had, his market cycles might have been considerably shorter....or maybe not, but in any event, hold a trend till it ain't and therein lies the art and the science of the thing.

 

[speedo]

Cats ARE the magic trick.

View attachment 229888

I love cats but they are not deep thinkers.

 

[themickey]

Trying to explain price development on ET can be like trying to explain a magic trick to a cat.

Starting from monthly bars, as the bar time period shortens, so too the randomness factor increases.
No one can say that a 1 day bar somewhere does not have a random factor, but cumulatively they begin to make sense, not perfect sense otherwise trends would be perfectly aligned.
Once you get below a 5 minute bar the randomness exponentially increases.
A genuis may be able to trade a tick by tick chart, but I doubt they would be profitable even without the commissions.
And to say "every bar has a reason", "no bar is random"..... mind boggling crazy, but please continue with that thought, read Al Brooks books, I love seeing people waste time and getting caught up in minute stupid TA detail, the more distracted by irrelevant crap the better.
But back to cats, when my cat walked across my keyboard and placed a trade, that fat pawwed trade was a winner and my cat does all my trading now.
I've now created a cat algo.

 

[ironchef]

I love cats but they are not deep thinkers.

No need to be deep thinkers, like traders, just has to be nimble and quick on its feet.

 

[Real Money]

"markets are random", "PA/TA doesn't work (whatever the fuck means)", "only the institutions can make money, the markets are rigged"

My favorites "you can't beat the market", "there are no legal edges", "price is random", "daytrading doesn't work", "you can't beat the algos", "HFT always wins", "daytrading is for suckers"