How is Probability of expiring on TOS calculated?

although they can be some sort of measure, probability of expiring/touching on tos is just another tool and i can see how a trader can be easily drawn to it and rely solely on this tool but the problem is that markets move and next week's calculations will be different from today.
 
Let's say you want to use an income strategy on the market, why not try to get the best deal and choose a security with the ideal probility of expiring out of SPY or DIA or IWM for instance? The calculations I use help me do just that.

I don't overlook technical and fundamental analysis when entering and maintening a position.
 
Quote from eldorado1:

Let's say you want to use an income strategy on the market, why not try to get the best deal and choose a security with the ideal probility of expiring out of SPY or DIA or IWM for instance? The calculations I use help me do just that.

I don't overlook technical and fundamental analysis when entering and maintening a position.
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Not saying that they aren't relevant measures.

It is just a different way of looking at the option value. You must have a fundamental of technical view that is independent of the option pricing.
 
Quote from eldorado1:
Let's say you want to use an income strategy on the market, why not try to get the best deal and choose a security with the ideal probility of expiring out of SPY or DIA or IWM for instance? The calculations I use help me do just that.

I don't overlook technical and fundamental analysis when entering and maintening a position.
More...
The calculations you use don't really help you do anything of the sort, unfortunately. If only things were that simple, we'd all be bajillionaires in no time flat.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The calculations you use don't really help you do anything of the sort, unfortunately. If only things were that simple, we'd all be bajillionaires in no time flat.
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PLS, its only a small fraction of a trading plan.
 
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