Quote from sjfan:
The problem is, how do you determine the loss that is "the maximum likely" in a time horizon. That's the literal million dollar question. If you can do that right, the rest is just arithmetics (or, at least reasonably solvable).
This is the smartest single comment on the thread and in my experience the correct route to the answer begins down on the French Riviera.
Forget using Kelly unless you are sat at a blackjack table. As has been stated here previously the underlying assumptions are fundamentally flawed when applied to the markets.