How inflation can re-emerge

[Motivator]

Inflation can re-emerge in the following ways:
1) Rates get too low
2) oil prices rise
3) America depending much less on buying goods from Asia, particularly China. Cheap goods from China was a big reason why goods inflation was so low for the past 15 years.

Personally I think the fed, via the bond market needs to let rates naturally normalize with no interference , most notably bond purchasing. Unless there is something very ominous, the fed needs to step back and let the market do its thing so to speak. The fed is much too focused on financial markets and its interference is dangerous. I also think the fed is being influenced by political pressures due to the election year.
If unemployment starts moving up quickly and the economy slows markedly, the fed needs to be very careful.
opinions?

 

[Money Trust]

Re-emerge? Inflation went somewhere?

 

[zdreg]

The bright red star Aldebaran disappears behind Saturn's rings only to reappear later.

 

[TrAndy2022]

Inflation can re-emerge in the following ways:
1) Rates get too low
2) oil prices rise
3) America depending much less on buying goods from Asia, particularly China. Cheap goods from China was a big reason why goods inflation was so low for the past 15 years.

Personally I think the fed, via the bond market needs to let rates naturally normalize with no interference , most notably bond purchasing. Unless there is something very ominous, the fed needs to step back and let the market do its thing so to speak. The fed is much too focused on financial markets and its interference is dangerous. I also think the fed is being influenced by political pressures due to the election year.
If unemployment starts moving up quickly and the economy slows markedly, the fed needs to be very careful.
opinions?

US inflation is under control, is my opinion. We can only speak of estimated falls going larger or less over time. But inflation should come down in 2024 and 2025. So it is only a matter how many rate cuts are in play for 2024 and 2025. That is what is interesting for US stock market and also the US Dollar. I would expect that it will get harder to come inflation further down after a certain threshold, still above 2% target but well below actual interest rates level. I do not see your fears to be true dangers coming on the front. My opinion.

 

[2rosy]

Inflation can re-emerge in the following ways:
1) Rates get too low
2) oil prices rise
3) America depending much less on buying goods from Asia, particularly China. Cheap goods from China was a big reason why goods inflation was so low for the past 15 years.

what's your definition of inflation? I don't think anything in your list contributes to inflation which I define as reduced value of money

 

[Scataphagos]

Re-emerge? Inflation went somewhere?

Yeah, right. Government/Fed/Powell have been talking "inflation 2-3-5%" when it's been double digit all along... for at least the last 10 years. Still is 10+% in spite of Powell's spew. Lying bastards! (Don't believe it? Just check your "prices paid" for everything YOU have to pay for. Do you realize an auto mechanic these days wants $150/hr for cranking a wrench... or a house cleaner wants $50/hr for running a mop or a rag? My HVAC servicer (former) charged $234/hr,* plus parts (FYI, a furnace fan motor will cost ~$600, in case you're interested), to clean my furnace. Has everybody been overwhelmed by greed and lost their F'n mind?)

*Only charged me that ONCE... until I found our their hourly rate and was shocked by their bill. My fault.. I should have inquired about "hourly rate" in advance. (They billed themselves as "discount services". DISCOUNT, MY ASS! Lesson learned.)

 

[schizo]

Inflation can re-emerge in the following ways:
1) Rates get too low
2) oil prices rise
3) America depending much less on buying goods from Asia, particularly China. Cheap goods from China was a big reason why goods inflation was so low for the past 15 years.

Personally I think the fed, via the bond market needs to let rates naturally normalize with no interference , most notably bond purchasing. Unless there is something very ominous, the fed needs to step back and let the market do its thing so to speak. The fed is much too focused on financial markets and its interference is dangerous. I also think the fed is being influenced by political pressures due to the election year.
If unemployment starts moving up quickly and the economy slows markedly, the fed needs to be very careful.
opinions?

Your point about the Fed intervention is a valid one. However, inflation is more psychological than economical. Ask any Venezuelans, who have lived with runaway inflation for years now, whether they give rat's ass about it. You just need to buckle down and spend less, they'll likely say. Those who live in the West, especially the US, are pussies. They've never experienced poverty or have no inkling what it feels like to go to bed, night after night, with insatiable hunger.

 

[Sergio123]

what's your definition of inflation? I don't think anything in your list contributes to inflation which I define as reduced value of money

Oil hits every layer of the physical supply chain.

There will be inflation as part of the easing is political for investments into renewables.

 

[Sergio123]

Yeah, right. Government/Fed/Powell have been talking "inflation 2-3-5%" when it's been double digit all along... for at least the last 10 years. Still is 10+% in spite of Powell's spew. Lying bastards! (Don't believe it? Just check your "prices paid" for everything YOU have to pay for. Do you realize an auto mechanic these days wants $150/hr for cranking a wrench... or a house cleaner wants $50/hr for running a mop or a rag? My HVAC servicer (former) charged $234/hr,* plus parts (FYI, a furnace fan motor will cost ~$600, in case you're interested), to clean my furnace. Has everybody been overwhelmed by greed and lost their F'n mind?)

*Only charged me that ONCE... until I found our their hourly rate and was shocked by their bill. My fault.. I should have inquired about "hourly rate" in advance. (They billed themselves as "discount services". DISCOUNT, MY ASS! Lesson learned.)

You don't want them to make money for coming over to your house or working at an auto shop while you sit on your ass staring at a chart all day?

AI won't be able to do physical labor anytime soon.

 

[vanzandt]

AI won't be able to do physical labor anytime soon.

From 2017:

..
You find me a YouTube video of a robot that can change the alternator on a 1995 Nissan 300ZX.
Then I'll believe in the power of robots over humans.