How important is the win percentage?
- Thread starter Trade Prophet
- Start date
However, quant traders, like those doing statistical arbitrage (Ed Thorp for example) usually have very high win rate and few drawdowns, unlike us option traders chasing convexity.
Trading and investing is very similiar
IE. if all stocks or 95% of the stocks are losers and will become worthless in the 'long run' your chance of making money investing in that exchange is only 5%.
known as you win rate. 2 out of ain't bad if your gains are twice as large as your losses.
IE. if all stocks or 95% of the stocks are losers and will become worthless in the 'long run' your chance of making money investing in that exchange is only 5%.
known as you win rate. 2 out of ain't bad if your gains are twice as large as your losses.
You have find a mentor and quality trading program/course and pay for it. That is what I am doing. This way you do not have so many opinions from alot of people. Because some people like to bullshit and mess around and just pull stuff out their ass. When I started buying trading courses, I started to learn more and more in an ogranized/structure way. And not waste alot of time with 20 different opinions.
I was just like you asking simple questions like win rate stuff, which is good always ask questions, but eventually you gotta stop bullshitting around and go buy quality trading programs and trading course and seek and pay mentors. This is the best way to get profitable. It is too much work trying to do it yourself and you waste alot of time, better to pay someone to teach you.
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Ed Thorpe had a high win rate in the number of months his fund was profitable, this in no way implies a high trade win rate. For him it was a numbers game, a small edge applied over a large enough number of trades to come out winning nearly every month.
Thorpe always emphasizes his fat pitch trades for the funds success, concentrated bets (Kelly), which by nature have low win rates - a small number of trades are big home runs, the smaller winners & losers typically scratch each other out.
James Simmons, the king of quants, with his army of PHDs and latency edge has a 50.75% win rate.
“We’re right 50.75 percent of the time… but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time. You can make billions that way” James Simmons (pg 272)
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The question is irrelevant and the answer is the same, it is irrelevant.
Let's use an NFL example. Ask any NFL player or coach which one would they choose, having an undefeated record in the main season or winning the SB? One team can win 18 games in a row and still lose the SB while the other team making it to the playoffs with a 8:8 record (can even be a wild card) and winning out, eventually being the champions.
Let's use an NFL example. Ask any NFL player or coach which one would they choose, having an undefeated record in the main season or winning the SB? One team can win 18 games in a row and still lose the SB while the other team making it to the playoffs with a 8:8 record (can even be a wild card) and winning out, eventually being the champions.
comagnum,
What does that mean by " but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time."
But don't pay too much. In this business, the amount you pay doesn't always equate how much success you will get.
Pay attention to some ET posters and you will pick up a lot of good trading ideas/skills.