Equities and ETFs, these strategies run at around 40%
And options, here it's a split vote - selling runs at around 65% and buying at around 30%
But again due to the explosive potential of buying options, the winners make up for the losers
How important is the win percentage?
- Thread starter Trade Prophet
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And options, here it's a split vote - selling runs at around 65% and buying at around 30%
But again due to the explosive potential of buying options, the winners make up for the losers
I agree, I'm happy everyone is contributing, i will use the pearls of wisdom here for my next article on the topic, wish I could use them for the initial one provided in the link of the 1st post, but will definitely use for the 2nd one,
a humble thanks for everyone
What are you trading? What's the time frame?
And a fifth trade averaging down long. Another winner. Purple horizontal line was my initial entry level follow it to the left end you see the green triangle entry. The lower green triangles were additional averaging down entries. The righthand side red triangle is my exit of all contracts at one whack. Once I get at least 1 tick profit on my initial entry I am looking at exiting. Avoid greed. It will lower a win rate.
Depending on the improvement rabbit hole depth you care to travel, MAE and MFE can be useful for upping performance of overall trade method/style, specific setups, specific entry and exit techniques, and even market environments.
Personally I analyze my primary overall method, which is volume correlated to PA, not the other way around. I also make note of environment on a daily basis, not by trade. The environment serves as a "filter" of sorts... this is how the trade method, based on real-time analysis and actions performs in different environments, and is now comparable to actual profit/loss, wins and losses. Improvement in entry/exit/stops becomes possible!!
Its a simple glance for learning how much gets left on the table (how good is the exit signal), as well as how much drawdown if any, is necessary (how good is the entry signal). Like I said... how far down the rabbit hole do you want to go? My trade parameters/expectations are different with a VIX around 30 vs 15. My trade parameters/expectations are different in summer, etc, etc, etc. MAE/MFE gives me that insight.
I am an independent, flat EOD, full-time futures trader.
I draw a lot of lines. I can never tell which line price will react to but Price ALWAYS reacts to some line whether it be support or resistance.
Right price is trading in a bull channel and in a nested triangle at the Apex so it is in the BO mode. It simple cannot stay at the Apex. I will watch and see what it does.
Right price is trading in a bull channel and in a nested triangle at the Apex so it is in the BO mode. It simple cannot stay at the Apex. I will watch and see what it does.
Emini ES futures but I get my trade signals from other markets to trade the Emini ES.
1min (high volatility market conditions)
2min, 3min, 5min, 15min and 30min normal trading conditions
wrbtrader
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No. I don't trade combinations or spreads.
When long options, the premium is typically my stop. When short the cash/covered are. Don't do naked anymore, way too painful when I was wrong.
since you asked, the win ratio depends on the duration your measuring, yes there is time we, or
Perhaps i have ultra low winning % but the loss is so small where you can afford to get hit 20 times and the one trade that makes it covers all the losses. It also depends on if your measuring over all performance or per instrument measurement, most of the time at least for me i do NOT heavily calculate this ratio because out if 10 hands dealt there is no way to know which one is winner or loser and again duration gets involved the winners/loser ratio can again be affected, being systematic i take every signal. Winner or losers i cant and i do not input my feeling and i follow it no matter what , After recent mayhems and wild swings, ive changed my systems to trade only instruments with options, because systematically you cant accurately calculate losses forward looking if the instrument gaps against you but you can if your buying options. This caused a massive shuffle in instruments being traded
so whaat the win ratio? Depends on duration and depends if your talking entire systems calculation or per instrument calculation but as others mentioned here its not as important as knowing how much you can lose in the worse of the worse situations
most importantly this to ANY trader, automated, systematic, or discretionary or whatever is
Position size because even if you got 90% winning ratio you can fuck it up if you take a larger position or smaller on that one losing trade which obviously you wont know in advance this happens because people tend to be emotionally connected to an instrument or think its too cheap (like me in crude oil) or too expensive (like me in palladium) but worse sometimes its happening and they do NOT knwo at all in my experience most traders maybe not here hardly know what ot means to systemize position size, you ask them what size you took on this and that and u get two different answers and if u ask why they be like oh this stock is 20
Bucks and this one is 80 bucks yet you will
Find the size they took on the 20
Dollar stock is 3 times higher than the position they took on the 80
Dollar stock
this can fuck it up all
edit: even the same amount of contracts all the time is not the same size, because the value of those contracts notional changes daily even though margin might not right away, like the es for example, 2 contract when its at 3000 is not the same as 2 contracts when its at 2500
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options can change that drastically