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How I'm Trading the Volatility: Live trades (Jan)
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
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Huge gainer on 1 year chart;
i traded FCX when it was in teens.
I think Carl Ichan had a position in it, but its trending better than when i was in it/traded single stocks...............................................................................................
thx, etf tab revealing 4:1 call/put ratio uvxy sqqq
its odd biotech inverse labd strong, i bought inverses, in case jan drop, sm size 11k worth
"sometimes ya just gotta say, what the fuck" - Risky Business
happy new year guys
#lastbearstanding
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An update, since Oct 31, roughly when we talked about the trend, my entire account is up 30.7% with a very heavy bias on commodity based stocks. Any short strategy in US markets would have been a struggle in this time period. I suspect given normal historical patterns, this may be the case for 2-3 more weeks, but I say that with no certainty. My point is never write off the opinions of experienced investors/traders; even if you don't agree with them there is always something to consider. I've been trading or investing off and on since the 1980s, I get active when market conditions dictate it. Cylicals have been great plays since the Covid correction; US IT as well but I decided the Cdn cyclicals were a less risky play for myself ( due to rising CDN$/US$ and I didn't expect such the heights we are at now in IT stocks this year ). Ken loves to trade the triple shorts but I look at historical patterns and think mid to late January, especially if we go 5-10% higher, is a much better time to consider those plays.
As I posted in March, overall performance by end of year imo will be less about playing the correction and more about how you played the inevitable recovery in stock indexes. It is very, very hard to time a correction; crashes are fairly rare.
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Good points... I overtraded inverses post-April because I had some great winning TVIX swingtrades earlier eg bought 56 sold 940 plus daytrading before and during march selloff.
Likely you're right re mid January or later before a drop. I'm using loss of sp 3550 support to trade size..
the payoff potential is very big, even a mean reversion pivot into where they traded last March is 4x+.. but I agree re very hard to catch. I keep taking shots bc selloffs are fast and I don't want to chase, it's easier to position size if in early.
Commodity rally picking up tonight might be very lucrative tomorrow. Technicals were suggesting so, recent Monday's have been bullish for Gold, but until it follows through you can never be entirely sure. Luckily for me TSX was unusually weak on Thursday so I didn't sell anything ( I actually rebought EDR/FVI/HBM in the morning ). Mining and energy can be as dynamic as leveraged short plays if you get on the right side of the trade. Always a chance the gap up tapers some later tonight but I think this is likely a real move the way it set up last week.
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SPXS is up last i looked \but typical good entry price of#3.990 still leaves me doWn a bit.Took profits on UPRO early today, KC.This DEC reminded me of 2019 DEC, so upro/spy dividend hold worked well/again.
Another advantage to getting in spxs early; if a small entry position turn$ profitable a bit /can always take small profits early
[Usually pays well or very well to take long profits late in an uptrending bull market.................................................................................]
