How I'm Trading the Volatility: Live trades (Jan)
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
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May get out of TECS/ today depending on profit + loss;
+ in spxs depending on UPRO/SPXS.........................................
Market continues to punish the short side.
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NOT really punish the short side/if one knows how to cut a loss;
easier to make money last week,ytd mostly,on long side..........................................LOL
https://www..com/analysis/emini-nested-wedge-rally/#15-if-there-is-a-reversal-down-where-is-support
"Is the Emini in a new bull trend?
The question is, is the daily chart still in a trading range, or has the breakout been convincing enough so that traders believe there is now a new bull trend? Unless the bulls start to get more and consecutive bull bars closing near their highs, this week’s breakout will fail. Traders will see it as a new high in the 4-month trading range, and they will look for a reversal down. With everyone on TV so bullish, if the Emini starts down, it could fall quickly as everyone suddenly realizes that they are long at the top of a trading range.
But if the Emini begins to form many bull bars closing on their highs, then traders will conclude that the rally is in fact the start of a new leg up. The target above is the 4,000 Big Round Number, which is about a measured move up from the 4-month trading range.
If the Emini reverses down soon, how far down will it go? At a minimum, traders will look for it to get back to the middle of the 4-month range. That is around 3400, and it is below the November 10 higher low. Traders should not be surprised if it goes all the way below the 3200 bottom of the range.
Remember what I wrote about the monthly chart. It looks like the Emini will be sideways to down for the 1st half of 2021, even if it goes higher into January. If so, the Emini should get down to the bottom of the range by mid-year, and probably sooner."
"Is the Emini in a new bull trend?
The question is, is the daily chart still in a trading range, or has the breakout been convincing enough so that traders believe there is now a new bull trend? Unless the bulls start to get more and consecutive bull bars closing near their highs, this week’s breakout will fail. Traders will see it as a new high in the 4-month trading range, and they will look for a reversal down. With everyone on TV so bullish, if the Emini starts down, it could fall quickly as everyone suddenly realizes that they are long at the top of a trading range.
But if the Emini begins to form many bull bars closing on their highs, then traders will conclude that the rally is in fact the start of a new leg up. The target above is the 4,000 Big Round Number, which is about a measured move up from the 4-month trading range.
If the Emini reverses down soon, how far down will it go? At a minimum, traders will look for it to get back to the middle of the 4-month range. That is around 3400, and it is below the November 10 higher low. Traders should not be surprised if it goes all the way below the 3200 bottom of the range.
Remember what I wrote about the monthly chart. It looks like the Emini will be sideways to down for the 1st half of 2021, even if it goes higher into January. If so, the Emini should get down to the bottom of the range by mid-year, and probably sooner."
interesting analysis, I like your points. I will keep day and swing trading
momentum stocks that are taking out new highs. But I am patiently waiting for a major pull back or sell off because this market definitely seems overbought.
Overbought but no signs of major sell-off yet. No interest in trying to get cute on the short side.
Agree; I'd want to see at least a few red days in a row before shorting size.
VIX interesting, hammer & low tails recently; I'm looking for pivot long UVXY