How I'm Trading the Volatility: Live trades (Jan)

[daveblanchard]

So where do you decide you are wrong on this trade or your theory? What if the S&P goes to 4500 before we crash?

How about you stop giving me the third degree and just let me learn on my own--which happens to be something I'm really good at?

I don't waste too much energy focusing on "what-if" scenarios. Right now I'm taking it day by day as it happens, while also observing how events continue to play out exactly as I thought they would, which gives me confidence that my theory is correct. As I said before, I'm not into gambling.

This is why I don't even like to interact with humanity anymore; you're way too invested in trying to prove me to be an idiot, when long experience shows: nope, not an idiot.

 

[daveblanchard]

Until you get a better more reliable data feed you should use bracket orders.

That way regardless of whether you have a connection once your order is opened you have your target and stop in place.

I realize it takes away the opportunity to manage the trade in real time but with your situation it is probably worth the sacrifice.

Since those fixes yesterday this connection is now rock solid. Even the slowness doesn't really matter anymore, because the pages now load as they should without random interruption.

I'm mitigating the other problem of unexpected broker site logouts by keeping multiple copies of that page open, and always keeping them refreshed as much as possible. If one of those tabs redirects to the login screen, then after logging in I can go use one of the other tabs while that one is reloading.

The ticker feed from Yahoo is solid also. It is much, much, much better being able to sit there and watch it tick up and down, rather than always having to be clicking the button on the Fidelity site. I can get a lot better "feel" for it that way.

Now with these fixes in place, I feel a lot more confident about being able to get orders in without trouble. It's way easier to place the actual order also because I have the ticker right there to the left of the browser window while entering the order limit, so I can hit the right number much more exactly, right in that second, instead of having to jump back and forth to the chart.

At least half the money I have lost already is due to these technical problems. Others were just silly noob mistakes, like placing orders at "Market", only to find that Fidelity interprets that to mean "buy at the absolute worst price possible." There have been timing errors also, but nothing fatal, and all being valuable experience.

I don't care what kind of money I happen to lose right now in this minute. So what? I'm learning, day by day. When I've learned enough, and am having a good pattern of success, then I can fund the account more and try to actually grow it.

 

[formikatrading]

Good luck to you.

How about you stop giving me the third degree and just let me learn on my own--which happens to be something I'm really good at?

I don't waste too much energy focusing on "what-if" scenarios. Right now I'm taking it day by day as it happens, while also observing how events continue to play out exactly as I thought they would, which gives me confidence that my theory is correct. As I said before, I'm not into gambling.

This is why I don't even like to interact with humanity anymore; you're way too invested in trying to prove me to be an idiot, when long experience shows: nope, not an idiot.

 

[daveblanchard]

So Fox News projects Biden wins the presidency. Right. I'm guessing that will be the dominating headline all weekend.

What happens next?

Everyone goes long on Biden-friendly stocks, of course. Those who had already gone long buy even more. Expectations of great profit are ahead.

But wait.

Suddenly Trump makes progress on his legal actions. Biden loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Georgia. Probably all three. It seems to be how this thing is scripted.

So what happens then? In the market, I mean.

And in the mean time, what happens Monday when all of the Trump-friendly stocks plummet and all of those people bail out?

 

[Nine_Ender]

How about you stop giving me the third degree and just let me learn on my own--which happens to be something I'm really good at?

I don't waste too much energy focusing on "what-if" scenarios. Right now I'm taking it day by day as it happens, while also observing how events continue to play out exactly as I thought they would, which gives me confidence that my theory is correct. As I said before, I'm not into gambling.

This is why I don't even like to interact with humanity anymore; you're way too invested in trying to prove me to be an idiot, when long experience shows: nope, not an idiot.

You acted like you wanted advice then slammed us with some deep set biases you hold onto. This thread is about a "sell off" that eventually failed last week. The reasons why it failed are clear if you read the press and how people framed what happened during the week. I made my trading mistakes in the 1980s and 1990s. The #1 error was getting shaken out of strong value plays when markets corrected or even did nothing short term ( ie no patience ). I also have noted that trying to short stocks or indexes is far harder to time then simply going long when an obvious bottom forms.

 

[daveblanchard]

You acted like you wanted advice then slammed us with some deep set biases you hold onto.

Who has been slammed exactly? I don't even remember speaking to you. What advice have you given me?

This thread is about a "sell off" that eventually failed last week.

It did not "fail." It ran its course, setting the stage for what appears to be the next brief period of exuberance, before a shitload of volatility next week.

Sort of reminds me of that movie "Downfall", with Eva Braun and a bunch of Nazis partying and dancing drunkenly in a ballroom, before a bomb explodes in the alley and blows all the windows out, sending them all to the floor.

The reasons why it failed are clear if you read the press and how people framed what happened during the week.

And that reason is.....?

I made my trading mistakes in the 1980s and 1990s. The #1 error was getting shaken out of strong value plays when markets corrected or even did nothing short term ( ie no patience ). I also have noted that trying to short stocks or indexes is far harder to time then simply going long when an obvious bottom forms.

Are you aware of these things I am explaining about how the election skit is scripted? Do you think any of this drama might have any possible effect on the market over the next few weeks, as the battle continues (they are called "battleground states" now), back and forth, going to the Supreme Court, being decided by a "biased" judicial in a 5-4 decision?

Is any of this about the Great Depression 2.0 getting through at all? Unemployment deep in the double digits? Repo market collapse in Sept 2019? Mass homelessness, with tent cities popping up even in flyover country? Total destruction of small business? CDC abrogating centuries of contract law with the stroke of a pen, halting all evictions nationwide? I mean I can go on, and on, and on with the shit that keeps piling up on top of this heap.

Maybe your timing problems were because you didn't have this kind of information available.

Maybe you live in a bubble world where the only thing that exists is the stock market, and fundamentals no longer matter.

Not saying any of that is true--just that it might be true. But I'm not here to make that judgment. Let's see what the actual market has to say.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Who has been slammed exactly? I don't even remember speaking to you. What advice have you given me?



It did not "fail." It ran its course, setting the stage for what appears to be the next brief period of exuberance, before a shitload of volatility next week.

Sort of reminds me of that movie "Downfall", with Eva Braun and a bunch of Nazis partying and dancing drunkenly in a ballroom, before a bomb explodes in the alley and blows all the windows out, sending them all to the floor.



And that reason is.....?



Are you aware of these things I am explaining about how the election skit is scripted? Do you think any of this drama might have any possible effect on the market over the next few weeks, as the battle continues (they are called "battleground states" now), back and forth, going to the Supreme Court, being decided by a "biased" judicial in a 5-4 decision?

Is any of this about the Great Depression 2.0 getting through at all? Unemployment deep in the double digits? Repo market collapse in Sept 2019? Mass homelessness, with tent cities popping up even in flyover country? Total destruction of small business? CDC abrogating centuries of contract law with the stroke of a pen, halting all evictions nationwide? I mean I can go on, and on, and on with the shit that keeps piling up on top of this heap.

Maybe your timing problems were because you didn't have this kind of information available.

Maybe you live in a bubble world where the only thing that exists is the stock market, and fundamentals no longer matter.

Not saying any of that is true--just that it might be true. But I'm not here to make that judgment. Let's see what the actual market has to say.

You seem lost in hyperbole. You can believe what you want, I am very strong on fundamental plays and long term trends / technicals. I'm not saying a correction is impossible, Covid is real. However, most US elections are bullish for stocks short term and November/December are often bullish for IT / Banks. Which is not to say they will necessarily rally from here but a large correction seems unlikely.

I could direct you to what I said in March shortly before the bottom on this site.

 

[deaddog]

At least half the money I have lost already is due to these technical problems. Others were just silly noob mistakes, like placing orders at "Market", only to find that Fidelity interprets that to mean "buy at the absolute worst price possible." There have been timing errors also, but nothing fatal, and all being valuable experience.

I don't care what kind of money I happen to lose right now in this minute. So what? I'm learning, day by day. When I've learned enough, and am having a good pattern of success, then I can fund the account more and try to actually grow it.

It's nice to have half your problems solved, on the downside the rest is your responsibility.

It's good to see that the money isn't important. It seems that discipline might be. Do you have a written trading plan.

 

[daveblanchard]

A written trading plan? Of course I don't have a written trading plan. I only have about a hundred gigabytes of books, a hundred megabytes of notes on every subject under the sun, about twice that amount of data in my head. All aimed towards predicting what some of you clearly believe cannot be predicted. What in the world would a "written trading plan" possibly do to help here?

Writing. Some of you are just really big on writing, for some reason. I remember back in school, how everybody was big into writing. The teacher spoke, and they were all the time writing, mindlessly. Just copying shit down. Instead, I was listening. Thinking. And then went on to ace every single test with ease.

I learned to think first, before developing all the copious amount of paperwork mentioned above. Actually, it was a necessary prerequisite, because I can think about a hundred times faster than I can write. To always be writing would be to slow my thinking to a crawl.

Do you think you, as a specialist, are going to teach me, a polymath, how to learn? We have a completely different way of thinking about everything. You do not understand my way of thinking, and never will. You are definitely in no position to judge my way of learning.

Nine_Ender thinks the market is going up. I see things playing out differently, and that a lot of people have been fooled into thinking things are just fine and peachy when they clearly are not. So I'm going to have to go with my own knowledge on this one, wrong as it may end up being. Because I simply cannot, as a generalist, take anything that a specialist says at face value. Specialists do not, in general, understand how limited their knowledge actually is. Especially the arrogant ones.

The #1 lesson I learned almost day one in this business, is trust my instincts. My first big loss, a 12 point loss instead of what should have been a 5 point gain, came from self-doubt after some sarcastic dipshit laughed at my suggestion there would be a downturn the next week. That was the Friday before the big drop on Monday before the election. I then received more tips from well meaning others which, if followed, would have compounded losses. So I don't take your word as gospel just because you're so experienced. I have to learn it for myself.

 

[KCalhoun]

Valid points from all. Ddog 100% right re bracket orders, I use fidelity OTO conditional orders for daytrading because it automatically sets your trailing or hard stop, which is essential.

Market has been cycling up and down for over a month now and is at prior resistance, so anything can happen. If the pattern repeats we may get a drop next week. Friday's dojo indicates indecision. Also VIX at support = bearish as it and UVXY are Very likely to bounce soon.

I'm personally still shocked that the market hasn't crashed yet due to earnings misses, coronavirus and unemployment. I've been saying that for months: fed qe etc stim spending propped it up, when the market finally does sell off it will likely be extreme. But price action is all that matters.

Like hafez said, "trade what you see, not what you think". Best trading quote ever.