Your analytical skills on this are way off. As a value investor with a better then average sense of where things go longer term, all I can say is following these kind of biases is how you can lose a lot of money. Note the thread title, and ask yourself what "sell off". Why would anyone buy and hold SQQQ against trend ? Well, I know why but it's more times then not a bad idea.
How I'm Trading the Volatility: Live trades (Jan)
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
Your analytical skills on this are way off. As a value investor with a better then average sense of where things go longer term, all I can say is following these kind of biases is how you can lose a lot of money. Note the thread title, and ask yourself what "sell off". Why would anyone buy and hold SQQQ against trend ? Well, I know why but it's more times then not a bad idea.
What do you mean, "what selloff"? The selloff that this guy (KC) picked up on and started making money on from almost the very day it started. I see it pretty clearly on the chart. He must have seen the bottom right when it happened. And I already predicted months ago based on my own theory, not what I was told, that there would be a lot of fear and uncertainty in the week before the election, translating to another big market move.
I have a feeling your "better than average sense of where things go long term" framework doesn't include the fact we are currently in the Great Depression 2.0 with over 30-40% real unemployment, that all of these much lauded tech companies are a sham 10x worse than the last sham (as I am well positioned to know, as a computer programmer and polymath), and that a massive crash is near at hand, centered around the tech industries.
If my prediction of a crash causes you to say I'm "way off", then I guess you must be bullish. How do you figure the repo market collapse in Sep 2019 into your predictions?
From where I'm sitting, it looks a lot like an economic crash has been building for a long time, that the wheels were clearly coming off the train by late Sep 2019, and that the "virus" was unleashed right on time as cover and excuse for the collapse that was already built in. With the Democrats being positioned to be most heavily on side of the lockdown, so they will get the blame for the masks and the economic collapse.
And that's basically exactly what's happening. So where are you in disagreement?
I have a feeling your "better than average sense of where things go long term" framework doesn't include the fact we are currently in the Great Depression 2.0 with over 30-40% real unemployment, that all of these much lauded tech companies are a sham 10x worse than the last sham (as I am well positioned to know, as a computer programmer and polymath), and that a massive crash is near at hand, centered around the tech industries.
If my prediction of a crash causes you to say I'm "way off", then I guess you must be bullish. How do you figure the repo market collapse in Sep 2019 into your predictions?
From where I'm sitting, it looks a lot like an economic crash has been building for a long time, that the wheels were clearly coming off the train by late Sep 2019, and that the "virus" was unleashed right on time as cover and excuse for the collapse that was already built in. With the Democrats being positioned to be most heavily on side of the lockdown, so they will get the blame for the masks and the economic collapse.
And that's basically exactly what's happening. So where are you in disagreement?
What trend am I buying and holding against, exactly? Looking at the chart, long term and short term, shows this ETF is pretty much bottomed out in the cycle, or damn close to it, and based on what I do know, or suspect, I believe there will be large upheavals in the near future which will send volatility soaring. The volatility chart supports me in this as well, given that we are at some of the lowest levels since March and yet there are all kinds of danger and warning signs ahead.
Right now I think there is a lot of happiness and enthusiasm as people rush out there and make various plays they've been preparing for. That will change. I already see what appears to be a steady influx of interest back into this ETF, despite dropping VIX curve. The ETF dropped slower than VIX did.
I can use my "Hollywood movie" watching skills to easily see how the "election" thing will play out. Right now the "valiant hero" is struggling against mighty opposition. Everything looks to be against him. The crooks have almost won. But he fights valiantly, so on and so forth, and he eventually wins. That's exactly how it's scripted.
None of this is bias, it's data collected and a theory formed. Should it turn out to be wrong on any level, then I have to collect that data and refine my theory. Works the same in any line of work.
Right now I think there is a lot of happiness and enthusiasm as people rush out there and make various plays they've been preparing for. That will change. I already see what appears to be a steady influx of interest back into this ETF, despite dropping VIX curve. The ETF dropped slower than VIX did.
I can use my "Hollywood movie" watching skills to easily see how the "election" thing will play out. Right now the "valiant hero" is struggling against mighty opposition. Everything looks to be against him. The crooks have almost won. But he fights valiantly, so on and so forth, and he eventually wins. That's exactly how it's scripted.
None of this is bias, it's data collected and a theory formed. Should it turn out to be wrong on any level, then I have to collect that data and refine my theory. Works the same in any line of work.
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HOLD SQQQ??
One or 2 good reasons;
as insurance hedge against TQQQ/QLD dropping.BUT no insurance premium is worth the cost of goods insured/LOL
Some simply take QLD profits every now + then.
No inverse ETF is designed for holding long/thats not wise. Im holding spxs with a loss bigger than 5.33%, this week, but its nowhere near the size of my spxl/upro.
IF SPXL does not perk up by year end [not adding to spxs this week]I may trade lees of that usual good trender………………………………………………………………………...
Good points guys. Looking at S&P chart we're near prior resistance. I bought a bit of SQQQ UVXY into the close for swing trade, still holding light size.
I expect another stock market selloff like last week soon, so I scale in and out of inverses depending on direction and price action. They are risky and difficult to trade, best held no longer than a week imho
Banked overnight profits in pot stocks during morning run, rebought a bit into the close ACB TLRY CGC MJ.
Those are my favorite sectors now
I expect another stock market selloff like last week soon, so I scale in and out of inverses depending on direction and price action. They are risky and difficult to trade, best held no longer than a week imho
Banked overnight profits in pot stocks during morning run, rebought a bit into the close ACB TLRY CGC MJ.
Those are my favorite sectors now
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Considered adding to my spxs or spxl/upro;
maybe next week?? Took qqq/QLD profits.Bought some more TAN...……………………….
So where do you decide you are wrong on this trade or your theory? What if the S&P goes to 4500 before we crash?
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I scale out at 2day lows and back in at 2day highs.. eg I'm mostly cash now. Very much a continuous martingale type approach.
Until you get a better more reliable data feed you should use bracket orders.
That way regardless of whether you have a connection once your order is opened you have your target and stop in place.
I realize it takes away the opportunity to manage the trade in real time but with your situation it is probably worth the sacrifice.