How I'm Trading the Volatility: Live trades (Jan)

[daveblanchard]

I understand. I'm not a common idiot. I don't care if I lose every penny of my $500. I will just refund the account and try again, with new knowledge.

Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned the part about being a noob trader. Every time I do that, I get treated like a common idiot. I should have billed myself as an expert, as that's what it seems people usually end up thinking I am anyway, and it would avoid having to go through the various stages of pain for all involved, like the one guy who haughtily announced he was going in for another 100k on a sliding stock against my advice yesterday, about 30 minutes before the market opened and the slide continued. He assumed I was a knowledgeable insider trying to steer him wrong, and I guess he was really sure of it.

Point being, I'm not a total idiot, and you can't legally give me investment advice, yadda yadda. Good to get all of the boilerplate out of the way.

By the way, I would consider consulting an "investment advisor" about anything to be exactly what a common idiot would do, but whatever.

Here is what I posted elsewhere about the outlook for this coming week:

One has to read the news the same way they read it in the Soviet Union: not to find out what to think, but to find out what they want you to think.

Case in point: a Google search for "who wins the election." To hear all of those results tell it, Biden's got it in a bag. One of these experts said she was a "wisdom of the crowd" person. I never did share that philosophy. See, here I am thinking that the crowd is dumber than a hammer, and about as knowledgeable as a box of rocks.

You can get great investment advice from these trash articles. All you have to do is the exact opposite of what they tell you. "I just don't know what to invest in right now, so I'm going to stay far away from stocks," pouts billionaire Stanley Drunkenmiller. His thought-provoking recommendation: invest in airlines and hotels. Yes, what a great value! Airlines and hotels is exactly where you want to be positioned just before WW3.

I see a lot of very scary articles on various mainstream investing sites right now which say in no uncertain terms, clear enough that the common idiot can understand it, that the show's over, stock market's way too overvalued, it's about to crash, etc. And those are the articles people will be reading this weekend, after a major week-long downslide. Meanwhile the news is also telling them that Biden, the guy who all the prognosticators say will be bad for stocks, has got it in a bag.

So given all of the above, am I wrong for expecting a big slide on Monday?

 

[vanzandt]

omg....

sorry, i gotta cut and paste.

"up we go".

 

[murray t turtle]

Anyone else trading inverses? Post your ideas, strategies for next week.... thx!

%%
YES,KC I did a 20 or 50 year study of DOW/S&P 500 for the month of SEPT;
guess which one lost the most???????
I made less in dxd than sdow made last week== but enjoyed it more/less stress.TECS+ SQQQ may stress but @ least they pay well/better for a profit.
I think NOV 1st-NOV 16 maybe wild,,,,,,2020 has been more volitile than normal;
still long TECS+ related.Maybe nov 16 before we know Trump wins--not a prediction.
Considered trading/DRIP, maybe, but that stinking 1 year chart looks uptrendy,downtrendy, confusing/LOL...………………………………………………………………………….
May get back in spxs,start small again, that way I have the option of a reasonable add on + profit reguardless.[I thought these were exclamation points/actually caution signs// even more important with leveraged x3 etfs]

 

[murray t turtle]

omg....

sorry, i gotta cut and paste.

"up we go".

%%
UP we go; depends on the stock/ ETF;
SPXS,sdow,dxd finished OCT up...……………………………………………………………………...
But its still an uptrending bull market you know.

 

[KCalhoun]

%%
YES,KC I did a 20 or 50 year study of DOW/S&P 500 for the month of SEPT;
guess which one lost the most???????
I made less in dxd than sdow made last week== but enjoyed it more/less stress.TECS+ SQQQ may stress but @ least they pay well/better for a profit.
I think NOV 1st-NOV 16 maybe wild,,,,,,2020 has been more volitile than normal;
still long TECS+ related.Maybe nov 16 before we know Trump wins--not a prediction.
Considered trading/DRIP, maybe, but that stinking 1 year chart looks uptrendy,downtrendy, confusing/LOL...………………………………………………………………………….
May get back in spxs,start small again, that way I have the option of a reasonable add on + profit reguardless.[I thought these were exclamation points/actually caution signs// even more important with leveraged x3 etfs]

Great points...... guess sp re study

Will check drip, I'm in SCO

Right re SPXS SQQQ SDOW,, those and TZA are favorites

 

[murray t turtle]

Great points...... guess sp re study

Will check drip, I'm in SCO

Right re SPXS SQQQ SDOW,, those and TZA are favorites

%%
You are right;
even though it was not a real big difference.
SPY is the liquidity leader, so I tend to do more spxs/spxl/upro than udow or sdow.
SPY tends to go up more over a longer period of time; maybe a wild week this week.
UDOW chart looks very bearish, not even positive for year...………………………………………..;sdow is beating spxs, last 4 weeks+ last week

 

[KCalhoun]

%%
You are right;
even though it was not a real big difference.
SPY is the liquidity leader, so I tend to do more spxs/spxl/upro than udow or sdow.
SPY tends to go up more over a longer period of time; maybe a wild week this week.
UDOW chart looks very bearish, not even positive for year...………………………………………..;sdow is beating spxs, last 4 weeks+ last week

Thx re SDOW vs SPXS, right re SPY I follow it and VIX and TRIN closely.

Lesson learned = I trade inverses aggressively when TRIN is bearish >1 especially when TRIN >1.5 ....very valuable tip

 

[KCalhoun]

Futures down a bit, go bears!

 

[vanzandt]

%%
UP we go; depends on the stock/ ETF;
SPXS,sdow,dxd finished OCT up...……………………………………………………………………...
But its still an uptrending bull market you know.

Naaa.
the whole shootin' match will head north soon enough.
Too much fear.
Buy the dip Murray.

 

[daveblanchard]

If one takes this premarket trading at face value, all worry has been erased since Friday. Markets are expecting a big, roaring day today, one article says, with a gain in the DOW. But I've been seeing nothing but doom and gloom articles all weekend, and even lots of worry and doubt in the "good news" articles. Going to be very interesting to see how this plays out today. I'll be glued to the screen for the next few hours...