How I am investment in Oil

[FroggerMan]

Past performance is irrelevant here. The oil curve has never been priced the way it is now. Also, just because it tracks the index perfectly less expenses, doesn't mean it tracks the spot price of oil perfectly. Those are two different things.

From the prospectus:

 

[FroggerMan]

CRUD's first day of listing was 2006/09/22 and had a NAV of 40.57 per share. WTI had a spot price of 59.79.

On 2020/04/13 CRUD had a NAV of 3.48 per share. WTI had a spot price of 22.36.

Over that time, CRUD has fallen 91% while the spot price of WTI has only fallen, 63%.


During a period where oil fell sharply and then rose again as OP is predicting on 2008/07/14 CRUD had a NAV of 87.39 per share. WTI had a spot price of 145.16.

On 2011/05/02 CRUD had a NAV of 31.74 per share. WTI had a spot price of 113.03.

Over that time CRUD fell 64% while the spot price of WTI only fell 22%.

I am assuming there have been no stock splits from CRUD, if that is not the case I will adjust my numbers.

Data from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm and https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/pro...ged-etps/commodities/wisdomtree-wti-crude-oil


Edit: Same shit with USO. All you retards can kiss my ass.

 

[FroggerMan]

 

[chasinfla]

Guise,

About USO -- does this have a decay component like vix products do? That is, is there a penalty for holding it?

I could google it but want to hear my peeps on the subject.

TIA

 

[chasinfla]

Guise,

About USO -- does this have a decay component like vix products do? That is, is there a penalty for holding it?

I could google it but want to hear my peeps on the subject.

TIA

Ah, I see this question has been well covered in this thread already. NM.

 

[chasinfla]

40USD is break even price for most countries.

says who?

 

[ballsofgold]

Because the whole world already did this before you? And they did not do very well...

Although I agree it's a much better idea than buying oil futures (as an investment)...

buying something today after a 50 percent retracement gives u a much better roi if u are bullish, especially since there is roll yield in the etf.

 

[JFonseca]

I have done a back test in the period from 23rd April 2007 to 1st July 2008. In this period the situation was similar to what I think we are facing. CL will more than double its value within an 18 months time frame.

In this period
CL gained 114%
OIL gained 124%
BCOMCLTR gained 121%
CRUD gained 95%

I am using CRUD instead of OIL because I am concerned of the impact of the insane inflows OIL is getting, which might create some problems during roll overs. But, to be honest, I am not sure if CRUD will not face the same issue. The bottom line is that I believe I will be able to capture most of the ride up with CRUD. My only big question is: Why I am not brave enough to put 100% in LOIL?

 

[JFonseca]

Where

I have done a back test in the period from 23rd April 2007 to 1st July 2008. In this period the situation was similar to what I think we are facing. CL will more than double its value within an 18 months time frame.

In this period
CL gained 114%
OIL gained 124%
BCOMCLTR gained 121%
CRUD gained 95%

I am using CRUD instead of OIL because I am concerned of the impact of the insane inflows OIL is getting, which might create some problems during roll overs. But, to be honest, I am not sure if CRUD will not face the same issue. The bottom line is that I believe I will be able to capture most of the ride up with CRUD. My only big question is: Why I am not brave enough to put 100% in LOIL?

*** where you read OIL it should be USO *** Sorry

 

[hrokling]

Please read this post published at Seeking Alpha from a few days ago regarding USO and the supercontango for WTI-contracts. This could save you some money.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337417-uso-strongly-decline-due-to-roll-yield

The Dec 20 WTI contract settled at 33.82 on Friday. If you believe front-month WTI to trade at $40 in November, then that is the contract to buy, and net $6 per barrell. Just as there's usually no free lunch there simply is no way to avoid paying to roll contracts forward along the curve.

Ref your test example, a lot of that time there was backwardation which actually contributes for USO to outperform the futures contract. For the next six months: Do you think the world will scramble to find oil to use, or is there an oversupply?