How high can the S&P go?

Status
Not open for further replies.
I had no idea the amount of margin being used on the Nas. Question is who is using it? The folks buying or the folks shorting? When you have some of the hi fliers with 125% of their float shorted it makes me wonder if we are either going to get the short squeeze of a lifetime or a break of seriously profitable magnitude? Thanks for mentioning the article Plumber.

Also see that Barrons is looking for 1055 as a possible high.
 
Quote from Pabst:



I'll be trying to figure out probable dates but my guess is that October's payroll number on the 3rd could be a Huge down day.
More...

Quote from theplumber:

... My geometry and astro together yield either Sept 26 or Oct 2 for a high for the year....
More...

Hmm. Pabst flunked geometry, and the only Astro stuff i know is that the Cubs are gonna knock 'em out of the NL pennant race, But I think that 10/3 we get hammered and that may mean a 10/2 high!
 
Please let me clarify what I said, "high for the year" may not be the high for the move. 2004 may surprise even the bulls I think so be very carefull about holding long term shorts like you could in the past.Many are watching the SOX or other popular index's but what lead this last little cycle up was the S&P retail index, a day earlier than the S&P for that matter. Another index that catches my attention is the Value Line index and Morgan Stan Cyclical index. Almost forgot the gold/dollar ratio and 10's and 30's, or maybe the divergence between the historical vols and the implied vols in tech or maybe ....... I'll stop while I'm ahead.

Quote from Mvic:

I hope you are both right about Oct 2 being a high. I am itching to short the NQ again.
More...
 
Quote from Mvic:

I had no idea the amount of margin being used on the Nas. Question is who is using it? The folks buying or the folks shorting? When you have some of the hi fliers with 125% of their float shorted it makes me wonder if we are either going to get the short squeeze of a lifetime or a break of seriously profitable magnitude? Thanks for mentioning the article Plumber.

Also see that Barrons is looking for 1055 as a possible high.
More...

I missed the article but it appears that Barron's is lifting my good calls and passing them off as their own.

Which stocks have 125% short interest? Post them and we'll see if they go lower. I say they cannot go lower until the short interest drops. No stock can decline with over 100% short interest, I think.
 
Quote from theplumber:

Please let me clarify what I said, "high for the year" may not be the high for the move. 2004 may surprise even the bulls I think so be very carefull about holding long term shorts like you could in the past.Many are watching the SOX or other popular index's but what lead this last little cycle up was the S&P retail index, a day earlier than the S&P for that matter. Another index that catches my attention is the Value Line index and Morgan Stan Cyclical index. Almost forgot the gold/dollar ratio and 10's and 30's, or maybe the divergence between the historical vols and the implied vols in tech or maybe ....... I'll stop while I'm ahead.

More...

I think we're basically talking short to intermediate term, definitely not into 2004.

Anyway, we have Oct. 3rd as a possible plunge date from Pabst. While I'm looking for the high for 2003 sometime in the next two weeks.
 
Quote from Romeo:



I think we're basically talking short to intermediate term, definitely not into 2004.

Anyway, we have Oct. 3rd as a possible plunge date from Pabst. While I'm looking for the high for 2003 sometime in the next two weeks.
More...

Agree again with you Romeo. While my work suggests a bad October, I'm not looking for a perma-top until Q1 2004.
 
Some of these large short interest's may be arbs trading in front of anticipated new issuances. Although with NetFlix I'd be surprised. They're sitting on some cash.
 
if theres one thing I've learned, it's don't underestimate the trend.

I don't know how high it could go, but it hasn't shown any signs of weakness (yet).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top