How high can the S&P go?

[Romeo]

Quote from Pabst:



Thank's for the acknowledgement guys. The next cycle will indeed be a short opportunity Romeo, and yea I'd say 1050 is as good as anywhere else I can see. I'll be trying to figure out probable dates but my guess is that October's payroll number on the 3rd could be a Huge down day.

I'm glad we're back to agreeing on a top around 1050.

All I can add is that you may not have to wait til 10/3 for the downer. It could happen at any time after 1050.

Inandlong, all I was saying was that some of "the crap" is also entertainment for the readers. And if this thread stays its course (and I know it will b/c of you and me and Pabst!), there will be alot more substance to this thread, sprinkled with just enough humor to keep people interested.

Basically, the section removed was funny to most, and would have been enjoyed as part of this thread. I was the one being called an idiot, and I certainly don't mind. Actually view it as a complement considering the source.

 

[Romeo]

Quote from Mvic:

can be a very lucrative strategy (especially in a range bound market as we have had on the SP last few months before it broke out) with good money management. It allows you to increase your probability of a profitable trade substantially while allowing allot of leeway regarding accurate prediction of price movement (in otherwords if you sell a 1050 call you come out of it with a profitable trade as long as the SP closes at 1050+ premium collected).

How would you deal with a move above 1050, would you then sell a higher strike or would you cover with the futures? Would you wait until you got to break even to cover?

In the long run does this strategy beat the SP on an annual basis?

I sweated out this month and strike price (1050) to the bitter end. I was lucky by a day. These things can go from 3 to 15 to 30 in a heartbeat. So naked selling is not for everyone.

How would I have dealt with a move above 1050 in the past weeks? I would have run like a chicken and covered because that means the option would have risen to over 10, and then we're talking about some major losses.

 

[Mecro]

I'm being amazed everyday that there are still buyers willing to long this ridiculous overbought market.

At first I did not think it would break 1050 but now I'm thinking 1100 will be surpassed.

Many people are going to be very hurt sometime soon.

 

[Mvic]

glad you made out on that trade.

I wonder if a strategy of selling progressively higher call strikes would work even in a rising market. For example, you sell a 1050 call when the price is around 1020, then if it hits 1050 you buy a future and sell a 1060 strike, if it hits 1060 you buy a future and sell a 1070 strike and so on. If the market keeps rising, so much the better you are completely hedged and will collect the full premium on all your positions (also the deeper the option is in the money the less premium value it will have and thus will allow you to close out hedged positions that are deep in the money to free up margin for new naked out of the money calls). If the market drops you just cover your futures as they fall below the strikes. Spacing the strikes using say the weekly ATR or some factor of it (backtesting might help in determining the most profitable factor)will help avoid one getting chopped to bits.

Indeed, to increase profits one could sell out of the money puts too and sell the futures as they broke through the various strikes. Meanwhile the calls are doing very nicely, vice versa.

What is the main problem with this strategy? Obviously one has to a be very well capitalized and money management needs to be very disciplined. Does this strategy yield enough profit for it to be worth while (i.e. does it beat the SP)?

 

[inandlong]

Quote from Romeo:

Basically, the section removed was funny to most, and would have been enjoyed as part of this thread. I was the one being called an idiot, and I certainly don't mind. Actually view it as a complement considering the source.

Hey buddy, you have another excellent thread going that generates a lot of speculative interest. It is in play daily right now and that makes it even more fun. We both know how quickly a spark turns into a flamefest and ruins a good thread.

If we were all uptown having a beer and railing on each other face-to-face, it would be different. But the printed word bro'..... ain't nothin' but black and white. I know you like to spar, and I know you don't mean any personal affront. But...LOL... I am the only one who seems to know!

Onward brother.... 1160 anyone?

 

[soler]

this chart was created by my company.
this is where the SPX can go (short term)

 

[futuretrade]

Quote from inandlong:


Onward brother.... 1160 anyone?

I think 1100 is definitely possible. Hoping for 1150!

I thought it would never get this far. But given the NAZ close above 1900 today, I think this market has a lot more steam left in it. Best of luck.

 

[BlueHorseshoe]

As high (or as low) as it damn well wants to.

My vote is that this is a bull-ina- bear market, but it could very well last for several more months ... that is unless SARS comes back this winter and bites us all in the arse! Looking for some early SARS cases to emerge in the first half of November - then we are in a whole new ballgame. Begin selling Asia, then cover and sell the US.

 

[Romeo]

Quote from inandlong:

You mean like the post that quoted another member and said his post was ignorant and he either doesn't trade or loses money, followed by the post that said he does trade and loses money because he trades... like all of us, followed by the post that berated the member for saying that, followed by the post that explained to the berater that the beratee was not berating the berater, followed by the post by the beratee agreeing with the explainer that he was not berating the berater, followed by the post that said the beratee's first post went way over the head of the berater, followed by the post where the berater apologized to the beratee and then said the member who is referenced first in this post is an idiot, followed by the beratee's post saying no prob to the berater and indicating all this crap would be deleted?

And my question is rhetorical because that is the entire substance of the posts that were deleted. So except for the fact that my call that we have seen the high this week until we see the next significant low was deleted also, the rest of it had absolutely nothing to do with "How high can the S&P go."

What you wrote here is FUNNY stuff. But its the cliff notes version. Yes, this all happened, and it was hilarious, somewhat like you've captured. But you know what? The original version was the best b/c it was most authentic. It was real. Your comical version is just summary.

I totally understand what you're doing. I'm just saying that between you , me and Pabst, I'm sure there will only be sparks, no flames, and a rousing discussion. I know what a flame war is, I've won enough of them, and I'm retired now. But, I will respond to nonsense with some wit. That's what makes the world go round.

Keep up the good work, Romeo

 

[Walther]

Quote from inandlong:

post that explained to the berater that the beratee was not berating the berater, followed by the post by the beratee agreeing with the explainer that he was not berating the berater, followed by the post that said the beratee's first post went way over the head of the berater, followed by the post where the berater apologized to the beratee and then said the member who is referenced first in this post is an idiot,

LOL!! I just want to add that proper spelling for a " berater " is a "berateur " ....lol...
Walter