How high can the S&P go?

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Now sees 1150 on the S&P Composite Index.

P/E ratio stays the same, with earnings getting better.
Doesn't see the FED raising rates until 2005.

Hmmmmmm...

70% equities
27% bonds
3% cash

Overweight: Retail electronics, autos, home builders, industrials.

Chip Dixon of Lehman sees this as similar to the '92-'93 period.

Hmmmmm......
 
And the majority are shorters :D

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
REPORTABLE POSITIONS (FUTURES ONLY) : AS OF:10/28/03
-------------------------------------------------------------: NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL : COMMERCIAL : TOTAL : POSITIONS
--------------------------:----------------:-----------------:----------------
LONG : SHORT :SPREADING: LONG : SHORT : LONG : SHORT : LONG : SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($10 X DJIA INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 36,291
COMMITMENTS
8,787 14,356 1,705 20,504 11,366 30,996 27,427 5,295 8,864
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS WEEK (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 3,642)
-608 572 719 3,628 2,329 3,739 3,620 -97 22
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
24.2 39.6 4.7 56.5 31.3 85.4 75.6 14.6 24.4
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL LARGE TRADERS: 105)
33 28 11 32 21 70 55
 
Quote from Romeo:



Gee, that's harsh. I don't think I deserve that. I made a contribution in this thread. I thought you understood that.
More...

Romeo...

some of us were wondering if you'd offer your opinion on buying in the money (ITM) puts on SPX in the next couple days? Or.. what OTM calls are you selling now that you consider a slam dunk?! Given your topping scenario.

Any comments...

I ask because you are rarely wrong... and... because you claim to trade off your predictions/calls. :eek: :p

I am long SPX 1025 calls and short SPX 1070s and long 1090 calls (ratioed) all legged into at what looks to be very good levels. Plan on buying 1020/30 SPX puts today or Monday... hoping to leg into credit spreads, anticipating SPX expiry at or near 1045-50-55 with upside to 1070 +/- 1-4. However, would it surprise me is we saw 1080-85.... no! Nor would it, if we saw 1020?

In fact....nothing surprises me in this ersatz-bubble market, part deux!!!! Heck... was long KLAC stock, and short strangles. Woke up recently to see it down from 60+ to 52+.. .. after a WARNING.... then watch as it V-bottomed only to make a new high yestereday. NOW that's something I've never seen in 20 years (as for as the rapidity of filling such a large gap). Fortunately I did not sell any stock; that's the good news. The bad news (for me) was.... had I been psychic and ignored years of watching post-warning stock behavior... i.e., expecting to see "some" consolidation, if not LOWER prices for a while... then I would have backed up the truck with long calls, rather then selling some more calls (after closing the original calls for nice ++ on the gap down) ... when it rallied to 57.50.... (figuring that level would be at or near the expiry pin) that (now) are ITM... and at a loss?? Of course... all my short puts are toast to the longs... so I guess my position works out to winning the pot in a high/low game.

Although my comments on KLAC may be (OT) on this forum.. the moral is: keep cool under fire, don't add to losses.. and exercise patience in sync with the overall theme/trend/climate of the market envrions, i.e. "bullish" ! Funny that most of my years in trading have been 'more' as a contrarian trader... then pure trend follower. Go figure! Had this been a March warning would have taken the lumps, and closed KLAC at a loss.

With respect to the SPX, the trend is still higher, and only 'brave'? contrarian thought would indicate shorting in any size.

Having seen that with KLAC (and MERQ also b.t.w) it will be veeerryy interesting to see how all this fervor and buying frenzy pans out when enough sheep get into high valuation equities! Unless PEGs and p/e 'rise' (fall) to the expectations of the masses and funds... soon.

ICe
:cool:
 
The average gain from a low two years before an election is 44% going back to 1960.

That's roughly 1150 for this cycle, based on the Oct 02 low.

Betting against this mkt has been an exercise in pain.

This is May 1970-72 all over again; Nifty 50 type era..just the names have changed.

Best,
David
 
Quote from iceman1:



Romeo...

some of us were wondering if you'd offer your opinion on buying in the money (ITM) puts on SPX in the next couple days? Or.. what OTM calls are you selling now that you consider a slam dunk?! Given your topping scenario.

ICe
:cool:
More...

1075 calls.
 
Quote from inandlong:

For better or worse, I am inandlong, and by golly I hope this good employment news is the real deal because I am really in and long.

Ooooops, the market is open..... good luck today.
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I thought you were bearishly biased? The bulls have turned you? Be careful!! A few too many bulls now for my taste.
 
Quote from Romeo:



I thought you were bearishly biased? The bulls have turned you? Be careful!! A few too many bulls now for my taste.
More...



way 2 hold down the fort romeo.

I know I've said this before but unless we get some multiple closes above 1060.00 in the ES.............romeo is still DA MAN!:D


way 2 go dude!
 
Quote from Romeo:



1075 calls.
More...

well... took some SPX 1040 puts on the opening gap higher... been trying to spread them all day against 1060 puts, not easy to get a bid in this frenzied buy-all-dips, market! :p


ICe
:cool:
 
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