How high can the S&P 500 go by year end?

L

Laissez Faire

Hello everyone,

I can't be the only one who's getting dizzy up here, but this market simply keeps going and going. :)

As of today's Close - the S&P500 index is up 24,60 % on the year. With approximately 35 trading days left of the year we can put that in a simple historical perspective...

If we look back to 1990 - the average yearly gain on a positive year is 18,01 %. So, we're clearly above average already.

The 5 largest yearly gains since 1990 in order:

upload_2021-11-4_22-11-52.png


Since 2000:

upload_2021-11-4_22-12-26.png


Okay. So, if we assume that the S&P does a really good year and closes at 30% - that takes us to a yearly close of 4882,75. 202 points higher than today.

Could it be possible that we rival the best year since 1990 at 34,11 %?

That would take us to a yearly close of 5037,25. 357 points higher than today.

It seems incredible that we can see a 5000 print and even a close this year, but technically it seems to be a genuine possibillity. Even if we don't go that far it still seems like there can be some juice left in this market by looking at such historical figures.

Note: These are closing figures, but all these years typically closed near top of the range.

Any takers?
 
I think with FED intervention, no historical numbers matter. Market can go up 50% every year going forward, just keeping Pace with inflation. Seeing this market melt up might not be due to a strong economy or positive outlook, but rather pricing in persistent inflation.
 
If we consider there is a chance of 30-50 % correction, it means institutions are selling for long term. But selling to then buy what? Will they sit in cash? Maybe you sell some SPY which got you 30% so you can buy crypto and make 100%, but no way are you selling to sit in cash for a couple of years.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Hello everyone,

I can't be the only one who's getting dizzy up here, but this market simply keeps going and going. :)

As of today's Close - the S&P500 index is up 24,60 % on the year. With approximately 35 trading days left of the year we can put that in a simple historical perspective...

If we look back to 1990 - the average yearly gain on a positive year is 18,01 %. So, we're clearly above average already.

The 5 largest yearly gains since 1990 in order:

View attachment 270614

Since 2000:

View attachment 270615

Okay. So, if we assume that the S&P does a really good year and closes at 30% - that takes us to a yearly close of 4882,75. 202 points higher than today.

Could it be possible that we rival the best year since 1990 at 34,11 %?

That would take us to a yearly close of 5037,25. 357 points higher than today.

It seems incredible that we can see a 5000 print and even a close this year, but technically it seems to be a genuine possibillity. Even if we don't go that far it still seems like there can be some juice left in this market by looking at such historical figures.

Note: These are closing figures, but all these years typically closed near top of the range.

Any takers?
More...

I said earlier this year I thought 2021 would play out very similar to 2019. Not many years have 5-6% GDP growth, strong corporate profit growth, and 0.25% interest rates. So the case for a strong year grew even more as we got through the year.
 
I keep selling/hedged on new highs then wait for patterns to enter. Been doing for 3.5 years and last year was one of my best years ever. As Indexes goes higher been exiting stocks as well. Going to dump 60% of stocks by years end, keeping best paying dividend optionable stocks. Of course I profit well being eventual extremist, even if it takes years to find extremes. Not that am looking forward of collapse of economy especially with President Biden steering the ship...making it easy for former President Trump.

All USA stock Indexes with exception of Midcap which had congestion on monthlies, in Rocketship mode. Real Estate has jumped overall 15% on low end, cost $12 for pint of Strawberries in WA, ES open interest falling, Nasdaq has more volume than open interest.
If I had a 401k company retirement plan, time to start shifting some of it every month. Can be year early, best to be early than late.

Problem with inflation, at some point people can't afford to put gas in their cars, more people on food snaps, multiple family living, this will start the tumble.

Waiting for VIX to get to 11 or lower, then just buy unhedged.

More millionaires comes out of recessions and stays the course cause of hardships.

https://kulluvalleyschool.com/js/blog/more-millionaires-made-during-recession-dfa145

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham-says-203300474.html
 
Laissez Faire said:
Hello everyone,

I can't be the only one who's getting dizzy up here, but this market simply keeps going and going. :)

As of today's Close - the S&P500 index is up 24,60 % on the year. With approximately 35 trading days left of the year we can put that in a simple historical perspective...

If we look back to 1990 - the average yearly gain on a positive year is 18,01 %. So, we're clearly above average already.

The 5 largest yearly gains since 1990 in order:

View attachment 270614

Since 2000:

View attachment 270615

Okay. So, if we assume that the S&P does a really good year and closes at 30% - that takes us to a yearly close of 4882,75. 202 points higher than today.

Could it be possible that we rival the best year since 1990 at 34,11 %?

That would take us to a yearly close of 5037,25. 357 points higher than today.

It seems incredible that we can see a 5000 print and even a close this year, but technically it seems to be a genuine possibillity. Even if we don't go that far it still seems like there can be some juice left in this market by looking at such historical figures.

Note: These are closing figures, but all these years typically closed near top of the range.

Any takers?
More...

Well people thought it had topped at 4546. LOL
 
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