How far will the Euro fall if Greece goes into 'bankruptcy'?

How far will the Euro fall?

  • Nearly collapse, causing other countries to default

    Votes: 4 11.1%

  • Over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 20%-50%

    Votes: 6 16.7%

  • Under 20%

    Votes: 26 72.2%
  • Total voters
    36
Quote from chaykapwr:

Forget the default...the ECB will be most likely pumping 1 trillion euros at the end of the month.

You must be crazy if you think the euro will be up after that
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Ditto. These guys posting above proclaiming the rise of the Euro like are the epitome of what is wrong with the EU, at least IMHO. Way too much national pride, way too little judgement and realism.

These Greece guys are standing up in their government like they're Julius Caesar. Greece? Country? 21st Century? HA! :D:D Carry on with the printing of your payroll checks, going to your 'civil servants' and lazy unemployed losers. Oh and don't forget the health care and high speed trains! ..SOCIALIST!!!! :eek::P

Cheers --
 
Quote from macroman:

what if chinese print yuan, and lend them to EU ?

this will strengthen EUR and weaken yuan. 2 flies with 1 stone
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Doesnt matter, the LTRO at the end of this month is already going to happen. It will be 1 trillion +. The ECB will have a bigger balance sheet as a % of GDP then the US. It will be huge. Watch the euro tank
 
Quote from chaykapwr:

Doesnt matter, the LTRO at the end of this month is already going to happen. It will be 1 trillion +. The ECB will have a bigger balance sheet as a % of GDP then the US. It will be huge. Watch the euro tank
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you may be right but i dont like betting against what chinese official says.

however there is more than one view on this EURAUD or EURUSD.

EURAUD at all time low will continue falling for now. EURUSD have no idea.
 
Quote from tenthousandmen:

Ditto. These guys posting above proclaiming the rise of the Euro like are the epitome of what is wrong with the EU, at least IMHO. Way too much national pride, way too little judgement and realism.

These Greece guys are standing up in their government like they're Julius Caesar. Greece? Country? 21st Century? HA! :D:D Carry on with the printing of your payroll checks, going to your 'civil servants' and lazy unemployed losers. Oh and don't forget the health care and high speed trains! ..SOCIALIST!!!! :eek::P

Cheers --
More...

If you get rid of a weak country the currency could wind up stronger from the jettisoning of it. That was all I was saying.
I would think by now there'd be some pretty good plans for what to do if Greece goes back to the drachma. Of course the Europeans do have a tendency to surprise to the downside when it comes to their preparations for this kind of thing. Still, it's hard to believe they'd be that negligent/incompetent.
Even if Greece & Portugal both go I could easily see a higher euro. Only if you get into Spain or Italy or Ireland does the scenario get definitively dicey.
Belgium splitting up would also be kind of ... interesting.
 
Quote from trefoil:

If you get rid of a weak country the currency could wind up stronger from the jettisoning of it. That was all I was saying.
I would think by now there'd be some pretty good plans for what to do if Greece goes back to the drachma. Of course the Europeans do have a tendency to surprise to the downside when it comes to their preparations for this kind of thing. Still, it's hard to believe they'd be that negligent/incompetent.
Even if Greece & Portugal both go I could easily see a higher euro. Only if you get into Spain or Italy or Ireland does the scenario get definitively dicey.
Belgium splitting up would also be kind of ... interesting.
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There is no provision in current Treaties for anyone leaving the Euro. Actually, it is not known if a country that joined it can legally do it without violating the joining agreement. All European texts are incomprehensible the same way the EU websites are. It is hard to understand what the EU is all about and its rules. For example, some claim the ECB cannot print any money by law above some small amount. Others claim the ECB will inject 1 trillion by the end of the month. Some others claim that the ECB has secretly printed money and deliver them selectively to some nations and corporations.

Even worse is the story about the emergency facility of printing money locally. Some say the Irish used it and printed about 40 billion Euros and solved their problems. All these are secretive, incomprehensible policies that point to the fact that the EU is something else than a straight union of countries with common objectives.

Expect this something else to end soon and together with it the Euro. Before that the turmoil generated while countries discover that the EU is something else and not a legitimate union of countries with the same objectives will bring the Euro much below parity with the dollar and possibly test the lows of 2000.
 
Quote from macroman:

mate, dont let your emotions cloud the thinking.

Chinese reckon eur will be up on repatriation of of euros and Merkel face at the end of china visit confirms her begging visit worked.
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+1

Akuma
 
Quote from trefoil:

If you get rid of a weak country the currency could wind up stronger from the jettisoning of it. That was all I was saying.
I would think by now there'd be some pretty good plans for what to do if Greece goes back to the drachma. Of course the Europeans do have a tendency to surprise to the downside when it comes to their preparations for this kind of thing. Still, it's hard to believe they'd be that negligent/incompetent.
Even if Greece & Portugal both go I could easily see a higher euro. Only if you get into Spain or Italy or Ireland does the scenario get definitively dicey.
Belgium splitting up would also be kind of ... interesting.
More...

What you're saying about the jettison is booting Greece from the EU BEFORE they default. While I would think this is a good thing on an emotional side (and I bet the Germans do too), nobody can actually believe this will happen, especially since this was never outlined in the 90s during the formation of the EU (AFAIK).

If Greece defaults, the Euro WILL decline. The question is if it's decline will push Portugal, Spain, Ireland and especially Italy (they're the largest in Euros) into default because they're in such a delicate, barely stable position. The answer is: VERY, VERY close. Certainly too close for any institutional person would want to digest.

It will be like a self fulfilling prophecy: The Euro will begin it's huge decent to 50% (a realistic number of where it would be with Italy, Spain and Greece gone), and people will continue selling and switching currencies because of the **fear**. Anyone emotionally arrogant enough to not believe this is going to get hooked.
 
Quote from chaykapwr:

Forget the default...the ECB will be most likely pumping 1 trillion euros at the end of the month.

You must be crazy if you think the euro will be up after that
More...
I will keep selling into every new euro rally into new multi-week highs - this trade has been paying very well! I have pounded every new highs rally in the 2900's up through 3200's. I want some greek debt deal news to offer 3300's next week!
 
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