How far down was the Naz in the 2000 .com bubble burst?

[Overnight]

...The faster we increase both productivity and energy supply, the earlier the market comes back up.

No. The market will not go back into a sustained uptrend until the Fed pauses rate hikes/pivots.

Increasing productivity is the LAST thing the Fed wants to see. It wants to see us losing jobs, and losing homes, because the Fed mandate is no longer about maximum employment. It is all about 2% inflation! That is what they want and by hook or by crook, they will get it! Say goodbye to your 401K!

 

[TheDawn]

No. The market will not go back into a sustained uptrend until the Fed pauses rate hikes/pivots.

Increasing productivity is the LAST thing the Fed wants to see. It wants to see us losing jobs, and losing homes, because the Fed mandate is no longer about maximum employment. It is all about 2% inflation! That is what they want and by hook or by crook, they will get it! Say goodbye to your 401K!

No I have to disagree with you, @Overnight. Creating a recession is NOT the goal of the Fed. Its objective is to control inflation yes and sometimes recession is an unfortunate side-effect of the Fed's inflating-fighting monetary policy but it's not Fed's goal to see that we lose our jobs, our homes and etc. either. Not all tight monetary policies result in a recession or a severe one. Whether we land in a recession or how severe the recession is going to be, like I told you many times before, will depend on our own productivity and how well we can control energy prices which is a large component of the input cost of any products. If tomorrow, our productivity increases by 100% and we find an alternative abundant energy source that can totally replace or supplement fossil fuel, there would be no more inflation then there would be no incentive for the Fed to continue to tighten monetary policies. There are countries like Canada who's already slowing down the pace of raising interest rates and Canada is not even the biggest oil producer in the world. Guess which country is the largest oil producer in the world??!! It's not Saudi Arabia. It's United States of America!! So it shows we totally have the power to control inflation without increasing interest rates too much to the point of causing a recession or a severe recession.

 

[Overnight]

...If tomorrow, our productivity increases by 100% and we find an alternative abundant energy source that can totally replace or supplement fossil fuel, there would be no more inflation then there would be no incentive for the Fed to continue to tighten monetary policies...

But that is not going to happen! That is fantasy land! We are stuck with wage inflation, fossil fuels and US-worker productivity in the toilet. Hell, there was a report on productivity released recently! Damnit, where is it...

Here...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/

 

[TheDawn]

But that is not going to happen! That is fantasy land! We are stuck with wage inflation, fossil fuels and US-worker productivity in the toilet. Hell, there was a report on productivity released recently! Damnit, where is it...

Here...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/

That's why I said,

People need to get off their a$$ and fucking work or build robots to produce stuff!! That's the only way to curb inflation. Monetary policies can only do so much.

That's not fantasy land. These are real solutions to solve real problems. Pass a law that says everybody above the age of 18 must work 8 hours a day otherwise they will be doing community service for no pay and also increase the production quota for oil in America and then ship our products all over the world I guarantee you inflation will be solved in no time. But of course we know again how competent Biden is.

And like I also said before,

What they should've done, of course looking from hindsight was at least keep the interest rate unchanged or even increase the interest rate at the same time when Biden was handing out money to encourage saving so people would put any extra money into saving accounts instead of pumping them into the asset market especially when there were no available products to buy due to a drop in productivity. This would've reduced the magnitude of inflation and at the same time decrease the possibility of any bubbles in the asset market.

But of course, nobody could see that at the time. Everybody was all preoccupied with covid and that everybody's got bills to pay. We always fix everything afterward just like what Ironman says:

 

[Overnight]

That's why I said,



And like I also said before,

But this time it is different, because the Fed peeps can no longer trade the market. They are very angry tigers now, and give zero shits about the market, the people, and everything else. Powell is now FINALLY doing his job, which is what he should have started doing 18 months ago. Control inflation. He is now going to steamroll inflation into oblivion at the cost of the little guys through incessant rate hikes, job destruction and wage devastation.

 

[nrstrader]

The golden age of passive index investing is totally dead.

The index is going to give poor returns for a long time and the process that made stock picking stupid the last decade is now going in the opposite direction.

I am less concerned about the depth of the peak to trough drawdown than the width of the drawdown.
Taking out Nov 19 2021 - 16,057.44 on the Nasdaq is so far away from right now it is comical. That print is like max liquidity, with interest rates floored, max cheap oil and all players pushed out as far as can be on the risk curve.

Drunkenmiller lays out the main problem right here and how everything is in reverse

 

[Scataphagos]

Good GOD. Now I am outright terrified.

Actually, 83%. One fund I know of was a 2X leveraged Nasdaq fund. Lost 97.5%! The decline from top to bottom took about 2 1/2 years.

IMV, we have not yet had "the bear market". In a genuine bear market, hope and optimism are displaced by fear, loathing, and despair for weeks/months. The current market is still high on hopium in spite of the declines so far.

 

[Scataphagos]

That's just correction. As long as they haven't dropped to pre-covid level, they are fine.

 

[SunTrader]

That's just correction. As long as they haven't dropped to pre-covid level, they are fine.

What????????

Those are percentage drops from ATH's. Not pre-Covid levels.

 

[murray t turtle]

Good GOD. Now I am outright terrified.

%%
QQQ did even better\ not so scary in 20\20 hindsight.
Better than 80%\$120 peak down to less than $20.
Good bear rally on TQQQ today/ actually about the time you noted MSFT winner today. Good call
Fear can be a good thing\ i would not try to swing trade TQQQ for 20 days like you could\ back in the bull market days
The bad news[killer flood, front page WSJ] is already priced in on VALE;
just dont give up all your profits. It can take days or years for lower ore price[ or more rednecks selling TX- Mex bean cans/LOL] to get priced into a mine stock