how far could the market go down?

[Overnight]

You damn fear mongers!

Not really, considering the 200 point rise from the 8300 level in the last hour on Friday was just that VIX squeeze. So if that did not happen, the close would have been around 8300, and so lose another 100 points on the open. Bring it to 8200. With the extra bump to 8500, bringing it to 8200 is 300 points.

 

[S2007S]

Shit just got real here in nyc. 113 confirmed cases. Ppl are stocking up like there is no tomorrow in my local grocery Asian stores. Empty shelf at my local cvs stores. Let see what future will bring when it open in less than an hour.

Calm down...no need to panic. This is what is causing the problem, the media.
Every single few minutes they are reporting cases around the world..

 

[KCalhoun]

Those etfs are good but one slight positive out of the market and these will sell quicker than they rose. TVIX could easily sell off $50 in a single day. With volatility getting to extreme it usually doesn't last long especially a vix above 50 for longer than a set amount of days is usually nonexistent so you have to trade accordingly.

Absolutely right, up at these levels I'll likely just day trade TVIX 10 shares at a time with tight stops. My faves for swings are currently SQQQ UVXY VXX SOXS DWT, usually start small with $800 max per trade, eg just 20-30 shares of $20-$30/share etfs like these, then martingale in for wins and small under $100 stops for losers.

Neat advantage to starting small is you can use wider stops initially, eg 2 points on 30 shares of a $20 stock is just $60 stop, THEN tighten stops as you add size, since you're playing with the house's money. Scaling is critical for trading success. See VanTharp's books for more.

It'll be an exciting week.

 

[schizo]

Not really, considering the 200 point rise from the 8300 level in the last hour on Friday was just that VIX squeeze. So if that did not happen, the close would have been around 8300, and so lose another 100 points on the open. Bring it to 8200. With the extra bump to 8500, bringing it to 8200 is 300 points.

When is the next earnings season? I feel we'll just go up and down, up and down, until then. Of course, the earnings will be horrible due to corona and the market will swoon again. We shall see.

 

[Cuddles]

You damn fear mongers!

BTFD

 

[Artfldgr]

Everything at this point is based on many unknowns to baseline assumptions. The closest hard data is from China with 100k cases. Are people seeing China going into a recession? Did you also account for a 1% decrease in interest rate in your assumption? Reality is that at this point, no one could tell 100% how wide spread and bad CV will be in the US. It's too early to have any indication.

Maybe this might help get a view of things..
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

there are a lot more cases that no one knows about as per my friends still working at the local medical centers deep in the thick of it... IF someone is sick with it, and its not serious enough to go to a hospital, and if the hospital does not have the tests to test... they will not end up on the stats sheet...

Given the stats on the ages affected... most of the younger people contracting it are not getting treatment nor do they even know they have it vs a bad cold... the people going to get treatment or being checked are mostly older, and with health problems.

This is not the spanish flu... at some point the panic will subside and people will start ignoring it as they do so many other things that are more common and more dangerous. its just how people are. the current rates are based on only those who are very sick and tested, and there is absolutely no way yet to know how many in the population have it and are not sick enough to be tested. last i heard nyc had only the capacity of 2000 tests a day.

take a look at the map application at the link above. it gives a great idea of things
and note that the locations (as far as i can tell) are where they are being treated

currently there isnt enough data to do a good analysis. I have been trying to get that data to do just that for my friend who is a biosafety officer. he is kind of upset that mostly we just have a few datapoints.. the location, the confirmation, death, and cured... thats pretty much it... however there is other information that is yet to be accessible like age, smoking, sex, height, weight (together indicate obesity), whether respitory issues existed prior, do they have compromised immune system... from what little is available its hitting the very old the worst.

thats all i have at this moment...
been downloading various medical databases to find more and run through a tabular AI network... but so far, i can get that for SARS but not covid

forgot to add this link too
the johns hopkins resource on corona
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

 

[vincentnyc]

Absolutely right, up at these levels I'll likely just day trade TVIX 10 shares at a time with tight stops. My faves for swings are currently SQQQ UVXY VXX SOXS DWT, usually start small with $800 max per trade, eg just 20-30 shares of $20-$30/share etfs like these, then martingale in for wins and small under $100 stops for losers.

Neat advantage to starting small is you can use wider stops initially, eg 2 points on 30 shares of a $20 stock is just $60 stop, THEN tighten stops as you add size, since you're playing with the house's money. Scaling is critical for trading success. See VanTharp's books for more.

It'll be an exciting week.

i have been doing tvix trade with about 40 shares at a time last week. hold it for 1 min or 2. then switch to spxl when it goes the other direction. my sizing it too big. i may dial it down a little bit or wait patiently. there is big directional move either in the morning or around 11 am est or 2 or 3 pm est. let see what monday will bring.

 

[vincentnyc]

Calm down...no need to panic. This is what is causing the problem, the media.
Every single few minutes they are reporting cases around the world..

i'm calm even thought i'm preparing for the worst. my company is preparing all the traders to work from home. and sending out email restricting non-essential business travel. yeah this shit is about to hit the fan.

 

[KCalhoun]

i have been doing tvix trade with about 40 shares at a time last week. hold it for 1 min or 2. then switch to spxl when it goes the other direction. my sizing it too big. i may dial it down a little bit or wait patiently. there is big directional move either in the morning or around 11 am est or 2 or 3 pm est. let see what monday will bring.

Smart! I trade TVIX vs TQQQ for flips, spxl also good. I like ur post, ur correct. TVIX is my favorite thing to trade, hope they split it back down to 30ish, it'll easily get back to 800 if it doesn't implode like XIV

Ive done thousands of tvix trades, it's usually been false breakout open by 10am, sells down under lod which on bounce is when to buy, then sell into 11am high.. and right re afternoon 2-3pm pivot...cost me a lot to learn that

Bonus tip: very often there's a strong consistent bounce up (or drop like Friday) and of day 3:30 - 4pm that's easy money

 

[schizo]

View attachment 221478
BTFD

My point is you folks are too late to the game. When folks like me and others cried wolf when the market was trading near the ATH, you scoffed. Now that the market fell off the cliff, you cry and whine as if the world's coming to an end. Cry babies.

FYI this isn't specifically directed at you personally.