how far could the market go down?
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he wasnt anonymous... he said he was the pilot
and who said i was advocating?
All i was doing was making the same argument in all the posts
that the response to this is out of proportion to the actual danger expressed
and that people are making it worse by capitalizing on fear to make their earnings
this in turn is causing more fear and more negative responses which is going to drive the market down more.
i worked for 15 years with a biosafety officer of a famous hospital, we would discuss such things as this. does it make me an expert? no. nor did i say i was or make any such claim.
my only claim is what i said above, the rest about cutting off heads, and other things was not from my arguments. about all i did in my points were try to show alternatives where the public has a poor grasp of risk, and these are actually well known examples (i didnt invent them)
you can google it and find tons of articles on the point of fear of flying being disproportionate to the danger... and fear of driving being disproportionate as safe
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/how-safe-is-flying-here-s-what-the-statistics-say
the main psych component that makes them different is whether the person who fears is under control... (thats also well known)
sorry i bothered... and your write, it was by anonymous authority, i just removed the anonymous because he was claiming authority by being the pilot.
enjoy the weekend..
P.S. the gish gallop was not the point.. ie. i didnt post those things for him in response to his straw arguments or such... i was posting it to the thread for the other people to read, there was no reaching that person as they were already running all over the place with strange arguments including killing people as an example and cursing
oh, and the key to gish gallop
The Gish gallop is a technique used during debating that focuses on overwhelming an opponent with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the arguments.
given that your a pilot which makes you an expert, my copying the CDC is certainly invalid argument and same with the other points!! would you want references for them? your claiming that i am overwhelming you with invalid data would suppose you first prove its invalid..
the source of the image is: The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020. China CDC Weekly, 2020, 2(8): 113-122.
african resistanceL "Black people aren't more resistant to novel coronavirus". AFP Fact Check. 12 February 2020. Archived from the original on 16 February 2020. Retrieved 16 February 2020
the alleged leak of death toll
COVID-19 MISINFORMATION AS EPIDEMIC SPREADS". New Bloom Magazine.
the information was not false.. nor was it from the creationists either
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Kind of niche thing; I grew up in a fundamentalist christian household. Duane Gish was a prominent creationist who would debate scientists back in the 70s when I was growing up, and reading/watching him was part of the brain washing we were subjected too. I was a bit too inquisitive for the cult, so I was subjected to more of it than most with the idea that he was some kind of intellectual and I wouldn't be able to question him like I could the rest of the adults around me, most of whom had struggled with high school and therefore weren't in a position to answer hard questions with anything more than something along the lines of "God works in mysterious ways....stop questioning him or you'll end up in hell". The guy was basically a kind of flim flam artist who threw out 50 arguments, most of which were either only tangentially related or wholly unrelated to the subject at hand in an effort to make it seem as if he was "winning" by sheer volume. He helped break me out of the cult, ironically enough, when I realized that if he was the best they had then they pretty much had nothing.
You are an absolute moron. I was AGREEING WITH YOU that flying is safer than driving on a per mile basis, and telling you there was no need for you to condescendingly "educate" me on that because I in fact spent a good deal of time as a professional pilot! How that's a logical fallacy is beyond anyone who actually understands what logical fallacies are rather than copying a list after googling it like you clearly did!
Regardless, since you've admitted you have no point except to argue for the sake of arguing, we all bow down to your vastly superior knowledge (and ability to type voluminous tomes about how right you are) about how you've determined everyone else should be responding to this particular virus. Since your analysis, right, wrong, or indifferent, is absolutely pointless mental masturbation absent any concrete steps you're advocating for, I'll let you get on with that as well. I will remind you that most consider that an activity best done in private though.
well, maybe if you didnt curse and talk about killing people for examples and such you would be clearer to understand.. for some reason, when someone starts their comments with "You are an absolute moron." the person reading it really has no reason to keep reading in detail or care much...
SIG, you have some antisocial disorder... and i dont need to experience you any more..
your way too negative, bloviating, and insulting to really listen to much..
i was never condescending... you were, as you project a whole lot.
"Regardless, since you've admitted you have no point except to argue for the sake of arguing"
who said that? you are the one arguing... your the one putting words in others mouths then argying aginst things they never said... i was just answering the threads point.. .
how far could the market go down... or did you forget the point of the conversation while you were cursing, bloviating, accusing, calling people names, inventing straw arguments and more?
as i said.. you have some mental disorder... i worked for mount sinai hospital doing data and research for 15 years... all i was pointing out is that as long as there is a PANIC the market can go down... and given that the people are taking this out of proportion (even more so when you actually look at the data itself, which i download from Kaggle... ) its going to continue to react negatively...
your point was.... well.. no one really knows your point... your too busy making up arguments with yourself and blaming someone else as you curse and call them names in some antisocial tirade... sorry i dont fear such bs... so i dont back down from such bs... but i do eventually decide your mental disorder is wayyy to much to deal with politely, and there is nothing to be gained by dealing with you at your level and calling you names...
Name calling is a form of verbal abuse in which insulting or demeaning labels are directed at an individual or group. This phenomenon is studied by a variety of academic disciplines such as anthropology, child psychology, and political science. It is also studied by rhetoricians, and a variety of other disciplines that study propaganda techniques and their causes and effects. The technique is most frequently employed within political discourse and school systems, in an attempt to negatively impact their opponent.
however, i am ignoring you... i was once on the bronx sci debate team..
you wouldnt have lasted three seconds given your "style"
Bronx Science is proud to be home to one of the most dominant high school speech and debate programs in the history of the United States. It is also one of the very largest. In the present season, approximately three hundred students are members of the Speech & Debate Team. / In garnering many honors, the team has a reputation for excellence at the highest levels of competition. However, it is the team's philosophy that the program be open to any interested member. There are no tryouts, and there are no cuts. All are welcome.
have a nice life... if you can (with that mouth)...
if anyone wants to go through actual data themselves go here
https://www.kaggle.com/imdevskp/corona-virus-report
its a database updated every 24 hours of the actual cases...
as i said i was in healthcare data for 15 years and i am playing with the actual data
its what us morons who do machine learning AI and went to bronx science do..
[nice place Bronx science... 8 noble prizes for a high school - where all the morons go!!]
another great location for us morons who want to know real data... unlike genius pilots
go here.. they are taking the databases and converting them into maps that illustrate
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rumments/detail/recent-activity/
SIG, you have some antisocial disorder... and i dont need to experience you any more..
your way too negative, bloviating, and insulting to really listen to much..
i was never condescending... you were, as you project a whole lot.
"Regardless, since you've admitted you have no point except to argue for the sake of arguing"
who said that? you are the one arguing... your the one putting words in others mouths then argying aginst things they never said... i was just answering the threads point.. .
how far could the market go down... or did you forget the point of the conversation while you were cursing, bloviating, accusing, calling people names, inventing straw arguments and more?
as i said.. you have some mental disorder... i worked for mount sinai hospital doing data and research for 15 years... all i was pointing out is that as long as there is a PANIC the market can go down... and given that the people are taking this out of proportion (even more so when you actually look at the data itself, which i download from Kaggle... ) its going to continue to react negatively...
your point was.... well.. no one really knows your point... your too busy making up arguments with yourself and blaming someone else as you curse and call them names in some antisocial tirade... sorry i dont fear such bs... so i dont back down from such bs... but i do eventually decide your mental disorder is wayyy to much to deal with politely, and there is nothing to be gained by dealing with you at your level and calling you names...
Name calling is a form of verbal abuse in which insulting or demeaning labels are directed at an individual or group. This phenomenon is studied by a variety of academic disciplines such as anthropology, child psychology, and political science. It is also studied by rhetoricians, and a variety of other disciplines that study propaganda techniques and their causes and effects. The technique is most frequently employed within political discourse and school systems, in an attempt to negatively impact their opponent.
however, i am ignoring you... i was once on the bronx sci debate team..
you wouldnt have lasted three seconds given your "style"
Bronx Science is proud to be home to one of the most dominant high school speech and debate programs in the history of the United States. It is also one of the very largest. In the present season, approximately three hundred students are members of the Speech & Debate Team. / In garnering many honors, the team has a reputation for excellence at the highest levels of competition. However, it is the team's philosophy that the program be open to any interested member. There are no tryouts, and there are no cuts. All are welcome.
have a nice life... if you can (with that mouth)...
if anyone wants to go through actual data themselves go here
https://www.kaggle.com/imdevskp/corona-virus-report
its a database updated every 24 hours of the actual cases...
as i said i was in healthcare data for 15 years and i am playing with the actual data
its what us morons who do machine learning AI and went to bronx science do..
[nice place Bronx science... 8 noble prizes for a high school - where all the morons go!!]
another great location for us morons who want to know real data... unlike genius pilots
go here.. they are taking the databases and converting them into maps that illustrate
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rumments/detail/recent-activity/
Bird flu then, but bat flu now. A big difference.
NOT a prediction. I like bats, they are yummy.
https://observers.france24.com/en/2...-bat-soup-debunk-videos-viral-palau-indonesia
Just kidding.
Forget about the sickness for a second and simply concentrate on the economic impact of the countermeasures. Various economists are projecting the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy from 5 to 8% of GDP.
Best case scenario (and we are past that stage) is no other country does anything else and we are left with China alone. China is 20ish percent of the global GDP, so we are talking about 1% to 1.5% reduction in global growth. This is super-optimistic, assumes no knock-on effects etc and it pulls the global growth down 50%. With knock-on effects like the disruption of the supply chains, reduction in travel etc., we are probably talking about a mild global recession. Worst case scenario is that every country is forced to take countermeasures, we have wide economic disruption and are dealing with a global recession of 5%+. Even the best case scenario deserves the markets taking 15-20% hit as they have done historically. Worst case scenario would probably effect the markets in a way similar to the GFC.
If the high school diploma from Bronx Science is the proudest achievement of your career, you must be doing something wrong.
no... its not my proudest... but it would be quite un-humble to say much more, and not very useful anyway... no one should be swayed by the school or other things in terms of listening to a decent point...
with that said.. your point is quite well put forth..
i have been scanning the databases (having a hard time as none of them pool the data on each case much... one will be locations.. others are time series... still others may have small indications of patient data in terms of age, vs smoking, etc.. )
the most interesting database is the one i linked to and another which is time series
the time series i find more useful as it lets you chart cases over time over location
i do not think china is actually going to reduce... the people are not exactly free to do so
as stated before, i think the fear and the response is outsized, and over emphasized given the nature of the beast and its numbers (a pandemic more like spanish flu would be incredibly more serious and virulent... its death numbers were over 25% among the young, not the old like corona).
as to my education and career... is it really all that relevant? the point of science was just that i been studying heavily since way before high school and still do... i do things like machine lerning for fun, and study for fun... most people shy away from such after they are done with their schooling.. my career in data engineering started before there were desktop machines, and has continued at the cutting edge since... makes it hard to find new work (yeah, counterintuitive), given salary and so forth...
i share what i know... always have...
i read and comb through tons of stuff, and am happy to share what i learned workign with the biosafety office and have chip designs and more... but that stuff is quite meaningless... all that matters to me is a decent cogent argument... that can come from anyone actually... and doesnt have to be wrapped in curses, or other things... the strength of the point is the point... no?
have a great weekend... whats left of it..
and a better week..
and we will pray that this reaction that is out of proportion to the danger
doesnt minimize a later reaction that IS more dangerous, akin to the boy who cried wolf.
with that said.. your point is quite well put forth..
i have been scanning the databases (having a hard time as none of them pool the data on each case much... one will be locations.. others are time series... still others may have small indications of patient data in terms of age, vs smoking, etc.. )
the most interesting database is the one i linked to and another which is time series
the time series i find more useful as it lets you chart cases over time over location
i do not think china is actually going to reduce... the people are not exactly free to do so
as stated before, i think the fear and the response is outsized, and over emphasized given the nature of the beast and its numbers (a pandemic more like spanish flu would be incredibly more serious and virulent... its death numbers were over 25% among the young, not the old like corona).
as to my education and career... is it really all that relevant? the point of science was just that i been studying heavily since way before high school and still do... i do things like machine lerning for fun, and study for fun... most people shy away from such after they are done with their schooling.. my career in data engineering started before there were desktop machines, and has continued at the cutting edge since... makes it hard to find new work (yeah, counterintuitive), given salary and so forth...
i share what i know... always have...
i read and comb through tons of stuff, and am happy to share what i learned workign with the biosafety office and have chip designs and more... but that stuff is quite meaningless... all that matters to me is a decent cogent argument... that can come from anyone actually... and doesnt have to be wrapped in curses, or other things... the strength of the point is the point... no?
have a great weekend... whats left of it..
and a better week..
and we will pray that this reaction that is out of proportion to the danger
doesnt minimize a later reaction that IS more dangerous, akin to the boy who cried wolf.
Couldn't be happier with my life, thanks for your concern. Now I'm going to go continue to live it. You enjoy yourself with whatever this is that you're engaged in. Sorry to have set you off, for your sake.well, maybe if you didnt curse and talk about killing people for examples and such you would be clearer to understand.. for some reason, when someone starts their comments with "You are an absolute moron." the person reading it really has no reason to keep reading in detail or care much...
SIG, you have some antisocial disorder... and i dont need to experience you any more..
your way too negative, bloviating, and insulting to really listen to much..
i was never condescending... you were, as you project a whole lot.
"Regardless, since you've admitted you have no point except to argue for the sake of arguing"
who said that? you are the one arguing... your the one putting words in others mouths then argying aginst things they never said... i was just answering the threads point.. .
how far could the market go down... or did you forget the point of the conversation while you were cursing, bloviating, accusing, calling people names, inventing straw arguments and more?
as i said.. you have some mental disorder... i worked for mount sinai hospital doing data and research for 15 years... all i was pointing out is that as long as there is a PANIC the market can go down... and given that the people are taking this out of proportion (even more so when you actually look at the data itself, which i download from Kaggle... ) its going to continue to react negatively...
your point was.... well.. no one really knows your point... your too busy making up arguments with yourself and blaming someone else as you curse and call them names in some antisocial tirade... sorry i dont fear such bs... so i dont back down from such bs... but i do eventually decide your mental disorder is wayyy to much to deal with politely, and there is nothing to be gained by dealing with you at your level and calling you names...
Name calling is a form of verbal abuse in which insulting or demeaning labels are directed at an individual or group. This phenomenon is studied by a variety of academic disciplines such as anthropology, child psychology, and political science. It is also studied by rhetoricians, and a variety of other disciplines that study propaganda techniques and their causes and effects. The technique is most frequently employed within political discourse and school systems, in an attempt to negatively impact their opponent.
however, i am ignoring you... i was once on the bronx sci debate team..
you wouldnt have lasted three seconds given your "style"
Bronx Science is proud to be home to one of the most dominant high school speech and debate programs in the history of the United States. It is also one of the very largest. In the present season, approximately three hundred students are members of the Speech & Debate Team. / In garnering many honors, the team has a reputation for excellence at the highest levels of competition. However, it is the team's philosophy that the program be open to any interested member. There are no tryouts, and there are no cuts. All are welcome.
have a nice life... if you can (with that mouth)...
if anyone wants to go through actual data themselves go here
https://www.kaggle.com/imdevskp/corona-virus-report
its a database updated every 24 hours of the actual cases...
as i said i was in healthcare data for 15 years and i am playing with the actual data
its what us morons who do machine learning AI and went to bronx science do..
[nice place Bronx science... 8 noble prizes for a high school - where all the morons go!!]
another great location for us morons who want to know real data... unlike genius pilots
go here.. they are taking the databases and converting them into maps that illustrate
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rumments/detail/recent-activity/