Not a hundred but definitely multiple tens of people who retired from the industry and are managing their own money. Some are truly “trading” (ie turnover is relatively high) and some are closer to investing, but they are making a reasonable retirement income. Myself I am still employed in the industry but if I had to retire right now there would be plenty of higher return strategies for me to engage in. All this while people here are discussing Eliot waves for swing trading.Not sure by just saying not true and a lot is quite enough to unequivocally say I am incorrect in the broader scale. That's just your experience. I mean if by a lot you're saying like 100's of people then ok. I may need to reconsider. If by a lot you mean like 3-10, doesn't do much to convince me. As I've seen a lot of people in the same situation that could not do that.
A lot of low capacity alpha around I agree with that. That's what I am trying to explain to poopy that despite their being disadvantages there's a lot of advantages to what I am doing like flexibility. I guess his argument is more that I am just too stupid to find it, fair enough.
Lastly the second part being obvious was part of my point. You are aware that just because something is obvious, doesn't necessarily take away from a point correct?
My main point is that extracting alpha is hard. Not everyone can do it, it requires education, knowledge and skills that most people don’t have. If you refuse to accept the fact that most things don’t work and the markets are the ultimate source of humility, you’re an idiot. Even given advantages of better technology, better data and analysis, multiple institutions and traders fail. So no, if you take a random ETer and put him in front of my datasets and execution systems, he would not be able to do my job. Hell, there are days when I think that I can’t do my job - and I have fairly good education, two decades of institutional experience and plenty of established strategies. THIS SHIT IS HARD.