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How does the Martingale betting progression
- Thread starter Ricter
- Start date
Martingale works when you have:
Unlimited bankroll
Unlimited betting limits
Unlimited bankroll
Unlimited betting limits
if u have positive expectancy you don't even need martingale.
Positive Expectancy means your (Win Size x Win%) - (Lose Size - Lose%) is positive.
This number means with every trade, over a large number of trades (100+) you WILL win a certain amount.
Armed with that i don't see why u need martingale which can and will blow out your account.
Positive Expectancy means your (Win Size x Win%) - (Lose Size - Lose%) is positive.
This number means with every trade, over a large number of trades (100+) you WILL win a certain amount.
Armed with that i don't see why u need martingale which can and will blow out your account.
I was trying to type what Remiraz has said pretty much. The 2nd part of my message was lost somehow.
Anyway, if consistently win 60%, and you're point up/point down. All you have to do is trade all those opportunties and compound profits.
Anyway, if consistently win 60%, and you're point up/point down. All you have to do is trade all those opportunties and compound profits.
Hehe, please pardon me for even posting this. Got into the sauce a bit overmuch last night.
The way I see it, if you have a better than even chance of winning, then in this case the important thing is that you're a bit less likely to see a ruinous string of losses.
Am I correct here, the odds for a string of 5 straight losses?
Even odds
.5 ^ 5 = .0031
60% favored
.4 ^ 5 = .0010
The way I see it, if you have a better than even chance of winning, then in this case the important thing is that you're a bit less likely to see a ruinous string of losses.
Am I correct here, the odds for a string of 5 straight losses?
Even odds
.5 ^ 5 = .0031
60% favored
.4 ^ 5 = .0010
Quote from Ricter:
Hehe, please pardon me for even posting this. Got into the sauce a bit overmuch last night.
The way I see it, if you have a better than even chance of winning, then in this case the important thing is that you're a bit less likely to see a ruinous string of losses.
Am I correct here, the odds for a string of 5 straight losses?
Even odds
.5 ^ 5 = .0031
60% favored
.4 ^ 5 = .0010
I once wrote a Roulette RED/BLACK betting simulator to test Martingale on it.
Probability of winning (minus the house edge of 2.7%) is 48.65% (0.4865) and 51.35% (0.5135) of losing.
0.5135 ^ 6 = 0.01833
1.833 percentage chance of having 6 or more losers in a row. Guess what, 10-12 string of losers is common! :eek:
The problem of martingale is not how often u win or how many ur string of losses are. The big big BIG problem is the eventual long chain that will wipe out ur account.
Watch Rogue Trader starring Ewen MaGregor. Nick Leeson was worshipped like a trading superstar because his martingale raked in big bucks. But one long chain took him out.