A lot of statements you made. This is my opinion:
Certainty or uncertainty are linked with the people that are trading, they are the market. Traders should try to understand the markets. It is all about knowledge. 100 years ago weather men were not able to predict the weather for the next week. Lots of uncertainties. Nowadays they can with fairly high accuracy (at least were I live). Did the weather change? No, the knowledge of the weather men changed. They recognize now patterns that can be used. The same applies to traders.
It is strange that you speak about certainty while you use things that 70-80% of the time don’t work??? If you want certainty why do you use things that with almost certainty will never make money for over 50% of times (your 70-80%) ? To me that’s contradicting behavior. Makes me think about self destructing behavior.
We work indeed with probabilities. But there is a huge difference between a probability of 25% and one of 85%. They are both called probability but they are completely different. I am only interested in high probability. If you can find something with high probability you can box it in as a good signal. If you need certainty you should immediately stop trading because the only certainty we have is death. Trends are alike as they always go thru the same different phases. Only the range is different, but should be calculated and this will increase again the probability. A good trader is somebody who can manage the uncertainty very well with high probability. I started to trade in th early 90’s and in the first year wiped out (in less than 24 hours) and got also 1 margin call. Since then I NEVER got any margin call again. I learned how to manage the uncertainty very well with high probability. Over the years my losses became smaller and smaller. Now, my losses (money that I give back after first making it) represent less than 10% of the profits made in my winning trades over any 1 year continuous period for the last 10 years.
I don’t use P.A. nor B.O. so your statement is in best case only important for a (small?) group of people. This leads to the fact that your conclusions might also only be valid for a (small?) group of people. I say "might" because it is even not sure.
You don’t have to eliminate uncertainty, you have to reduce it to the minimum. And the edge will not slightly but can even HUGELY increase. I know this from personal experience and see the confirmation on an almost daily basis, over and over again. BTW good signals don't exist, there are only signals. You have to take all of them even if they will end in a loss. They are part of the game.
That’s for 100% true, but irrelevant. If you want a system that is 100% sure you should stop trading as I mentioned before. You should do all you can to increase the probability and push it as close as possible to certainty. I make losses, so that confirms to me that nothing works all the time. But that is not necessary at all. The "system" should always work.
Certainty or uncertainty are linked with the people that are trading, they are the market. Traders should try to understand the markets. It is all about knowledge. 100 years ago weather men were not able to predict the weather for the next week. Lots of uncertainties. Nowadays they can with fairly high accuracy (at least were I live). Did the weather change? No, the knowledge of the weather men changed. They recognize now patterns that can be used. The same applies to traders.
It is strange that you speak about certainty while you use things that 70-80% of the time don’t work??? If you want certainty why do you use things that with almost certainty will never make money for over 50% of times (your 70-80%) ? To me that’s contradicting behavior. Makes me think about self destructing behavior.
We work indeed with probabilities. But there is a huge difference between a probability of 25% and one of 85%. They are both called probability but they are completely different. I am only interested in high probability. If you can find something with high probability you can box it in as a good signal. If you need certainty you should immediately stop trading because the only certainty we have is death. Trends are alike as they always go thru the same different phases. Only the range is different, but should be calculated and this will increase again the probability. A good trader is somebody who can manage the uncertainty very well with high probability. I started to trade in th early 90’s and in the first year wiped out (in less than 24 hours) and got also 1 margin call. Since then I NEVER got any margin call again. I learned how to manage the uncertainty very well with high probability. Over the years my losses became smaller and smaller. Now, my losses (money that I give back after first making it) represent less than 10% of the profits made in my winning trades over any 1 year continuous period for the last 10 years.
I don’t use P.A. nor B.O. so your statement is in best case only important for a (small?) group of people. This leads to the fact that your conclusions might also only be valid for a (small?) group of people. I say "might" because it is even not sure.
You don’t have to eliminate uncertainty, you have to reduce it to the minimum. And the edge will not slightly but can even HUGELY increase. I know this from personal experience and see the confirmation on an almost daily basis, over and over again. BTW good signals don't exist, there are only signals. You have to take all of them even if they will end in a loss. They are part of the game.
That’s for 100% true, but irrelevant. If you want a system that is 100% sure you should stop trading as I mentioned before. You should do all you can to increase the probability and push it as close as possible to certainty. I make losses, so that confirms to me that nothing works all the time. But that is not necessary at all. The "system" should always work.
