ok I googled it:think or swim
How do you value vol?
- Thread starter .sigma
- Start date
go to the exchange[say NYSE] web site and check what was the volume given there and then see if it is the same in think or swim.
edit or check on any other broker platform
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I like this, imma steal it.
This is a post I found in a very old thread... thought I’d post it here as it sort of answers my question.
“I do have one more comment regarding the practical applications of GARCH
First, in my opinion once a person understands how to use GARCH and can fit a model to existing returns, it is then possible to forecast volatility. This can be done with a number of stat packages. The one I have used most often is S+Plus. The forecast you obtain with the package is referred to by skilled users as the term structure of volatility and it reflects a non-gaussian distribution.
I assume now that I have lost some folks. What I am saying is that once you know how to manipulate the model (GARCH in a statistical package) you can get a more accurate reading of what the true value of an instrument (like an option) is, not only in the present but in the future. Presumably if you see an option whose price is way out of line with your model, it is because somebody either
A.) knows something you don't
or
B.) They have made a mistake in pricing the option
For anyone interested S+Garch Toolkit is a data analysis product from MathSoft in Seattle WA. Using that toolkit you can check Derivatives pricing, Volatility forecasts, and Value-at-Risk management for a portfolio of instruments. The toolkit is an object oriented software implementation, so it can be learned pretty quickly”
“I do have one more comment regarding the practical applications of GARCH
First, in my opinion once a person understands how to use GARCH and can fit a model to existing returns, it is then possible to forecast volatility. This can be done with a number of stat packages. The one I have used most often is S+Plus. The forecast you obtain with the package is referred to by skilled users as the term structure of volatility and it reflects a non-gaussian distribution.
I assume now that I have lost some folks. What I am saying is that once you know how to manipulate the model (GARCH in a statistical package) you can get a more accurate reading of what the true value of an instrument (like an option) is, not only in the present but in the future. Presumably if you see an option whose price is way out of line with your model, it is because somebody either
A.) knows something you don't
or
B.) They have made a mistake in pricing the option
For anyone interested S+Garch Toolkit is a data analysis product from MathSoft in Seattle WA. Using that toolkit you can check Derivatives pricing, Volatility forecasts, and Value-at-Risk management for a portfolio of instruments. The toolkit is an object oriented software implementation, so it can be learned pretty quickly”
you are talking about options?
wish I knew that.
I would not have wasted my time .
anyway I had time to waste
volatility is how different the price change like 5% is the max the index should change overnight. in stocks it can be as high as 50% in options its 50% etc. is the change in price or trading range...currencies barely change in price in terms of percentages
the delta , vega. or something. options always value the options based on volatility. or the VIX
the market even would halt if 'volatility' and liquidity 's too HIGH or low. no bidders they shut down the exchange and nobody can sell. you put a market order and no bid just not enough cash to even settle the trades at end of day
the delta , vega. or something. options always value the options based on volatility. or the VIX
the market even would halt if 'volatility' and liquidity 's too HIGH or low. no bidders they shut down the exchange and nobody can sell. you put a market order and no bid just not enough cash to even settle the trades at end of day
IMHO: It seems wise to first consider what you really want to accomplish. While TOS plays "loose with" volatility values (Implied Volatility), it is likely close enough for most folks, except when they have bugs introduced by their "new update", which occurs less frequently in the last few years. (I no longer use it, so assuming it has not gotten more buggy). You may find it enlightening to focus on what the IV IS, rather than what someone or some model "guesses" it will be in the future. I find the ATM IV to be a useful metric in making decisions, as it more closely relates to the underlying price volatility. -- Below ATM_IV of SPX chains <1 Year term taken a couple minutes ago.
I don't.
Nearly 100% useless... odds are very high that any consideration of volume will hurt your performance. Volume considerations are worse than just useless.. they are HARMFUL. (I know, that goes against conventional wisdom and is "trading heresy"... true, none-the-less.)
