How do you trade Natural Gas?

victorycountry · Oct 29, 2016

Spectre2007 said:
counter trend failed... stops at lower level at risk.View attachment 167653

What's counter trend here...anyway, on the monthly chart, the bear trend appears to be finished. On the weekly chart, there is no strong trend. It looks like it's going through some congestion and waiting for a new trend to start. On the daily chart, the current upmove has gone through a transition from a uptrend to upmove pullback. In conclusion, there is no trend with natural gas at the moment, it's simply going through some congestion now.

Spectre2007 · Oct 30, 2016

if you believe a market is in congestion mode, ideal thing would be to play a breakout.

syswizard · Oct 30, 2016

One scenario may be this market could be setting-up for a double-bottom.
If it hits 2.5 or 2.6, that might be the point to place a buy stop right above that.

Maverick74 · Oct 30, 2016

syswizard said:
One scenario may be this market could be setting-up for a double-bottom.
If it hits 2.5 or 2.6, that might be the point to place a buy stop right above that.

On which contract? This is the point I keep making. Each month in natural gas is like its own unique market. It's very unlikely Dec is going to 2.50.

victorycountry · Oct 30, 2016

syswizard said:
One scenario may be this market could be setting-up for a double-bottom.
If it hits 2.5 or 2.6, that might be the point to place a buy stop right above that.

Yep, on the weekly chart it looks like it could fall again since the current upmove is a pullback rather than a continuation of the uptrend after it crossed 2.7 and currently it's staying around the resistance level at 3.2.

victorycountry · Oct 30, 2016

Spectre2007 said:
if you believe a market is in congestion mode, ideal thing would be to play a breakout.

Yes, a good point. I will wait until the short , intermediate and long term volatility measure show a strong deviation at the same time.

Valuestrats920 · Nov 20, 2016

My question to any one that is trading their own account is, are you guys trading based off mostly free information like EIA and weather models? I ask because I know guys like EDF Trading, BP, and a ton of other huge shops pretty much have every data service out there that costs a lot of money and also has a ton of market moving information that are not available on free websites. Do you guys think you can still compete with such a huge disadvantage in resources?

Maverick74 · Nov 20, 2016

Valuestrats920 said:
My question to any one that is trading their own account is, are you guys trading based off mostly free information like EIA and weather models? I ask because I know guys like EDF Trading, BP, and a ton of other huge shops pretty much have every data service out there that costs a lot of money and also has a ton of market moving information that are not available on free websites. Do you guys think you can still compete with such a huge disadvantage in resources?

I'll put my energy models up against EDF and BP any day.

victorycountry · Nov 20, 2016

Valuestrats920 said:
I ask because I know guys like EDF Trading, BP, and a ton of other huge shops pretty much have every data service out there that costs a lot of money and also has a ton of market moving information that are not available on free websites. Do you guys think you can still compete with such a huge disadvantage in resources?

Yes, there is a ton of evidence that commercial traders (hedgers)'s overall position is negative. Not just negative but significantly negative. They don't have skilled traders and trading is not their core business

Valuestrats920 · Nov 21, 2016

What is your basis for saying that their overall position is negative? I know lots of EDF Traders and I would not say they are not skilled or that it is not their core business.