how do you make sense of seasonal market trends?
- Thread starter mute9003
- Start date
54 trades so far in 2021; Holding 7 positions today; 30% in cash; went to cash in Mar 2020 so don't have anything that's 2 years old.
Do you understand the magic of compounding. After 5 years you have 192K; hardly pointless.
Nothing works all the time. If you got your double (105%) by betting everything on each trade I'm afraid you are doomed.
what's your sharpe ratio? only 7 positions out of the entire index meets your criteria? they have survived the past week?
I have no idea how to compute a sharpe ratio.
All seven positions have survived or I wouldn't be holding them.
I risk less than 1% of my portfolio per trade. I rarely get over 7 or 8 positions before I run out of capital.
Win rate this year so far is 61% (That's better than most years
Average winner is 3.2 times greater than the average loser.
Largest Gain was 5 times bigger than the largest loss.
Return to date is around 30%
I think I've said this before, but you are pretty much just long momentum stocks. There's nothing particularly impressive about that, and how you go from ~X in your universe to the 7-8 you hold includes a lot of intermediary steps...if I list all the stocks that meet your criteria ("ath, rising volume", etc.) there are hundreds.
Hundreds? On any one day? Don't think I've ever had hundreds. There are days I don't find any and days I'm fully invested and don't need to look. I also filter for minimum price and volume.
There is no information I need that is not shown on a chart. I don't disagree that I'm long momentum, I'm just saying that I don't need to know any other information than what is shown on a chart. Most of the time, unless it's well known I couldn't tell you what the company does. It's not something I need to know in order to trade the stock.
On a day I need replace one stock and I have a bunch show up on my scan, I take, wait for it, the best looking chart. (stocks making new highs, after being in a consolidation with the daily range and volume decreasing then breaking out with above average volume)
So going back to original topic
what im asking is for just a basic reference on what to expect throughout the year in market
like for example not knowing that this week is usually a big End of year tax selloff would have saved me alot of headache
i dont know these things and most sources dont cover these specifics unless you actually keyword search which means you already know about it.
Or that end of summer is very slow and low volatility time because most trading firms are gone to vacation...
Im basically finding out as it unfolds when its too late
watched dozens of "new trader" videos and none of them cover what trends to actually expect throughout the year week by week
what im asking is for just a basic reference on what to expect throughout the year in market
like for example not knowing that this week is usually a big End of year tax selloff would have saved me alot of headache
i dont know these things and most sources dont cover these specifics unless you actually keyword search which means you already know about it.
Or that end of summer is very slow and low volatility time because most trading firms are gone to vacation...
Im basically finding out as it unfolds when its too late
watched dozens of "new trader" videos and none of them cover what trends to actually expect throughout the year week by week