How do you know whether volatility will rise or fall in the future?
- Thread starter nxt7
- Start date
In finance, volatility clustering refers to the observation, as noted as Mandelbrot(1963), that "large changes tend to be followed by large changes, of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes."[1] A quantitative manifestation of this fact is that, while returns themselves are uncorrelated, absolute returns
or their squares display a positive, significant and slowly decaying autocorrelation function: corr(|rt|, |rt+τ |) > 0 for τ ranging from a few minutes to several weeks.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_clustering
I imply the current volatility.
Personally not a contrarian.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_clustering
I imply the current volatility.
Personally not a contrarian.
No one knows the future;
The best you can hope for is to develop your skill/intuition/luck/prayer/divine intervention/trade management.
I always see volatility as the "surprise factor" of the direction.
I mean: the markets start to move more if the move surprises people. The unexpexted move forces people to quickly change or close their position. The bigger the panic the higher the volatility because the panic will trigger new orders that will reinforce the unexpected move.
If something happens that nobody would ever expect to happen, the volatility will raise like crazy. Because at that moment the surprise is overwhelming and everybody starts to panic.
Watch the chart of Ironchef and let the quotes be the number of people that can escape every minute thru the small exit. The smaller the number, the higher the panic (volatility). Each time when a bigger number of people can escape the panic (volatility) goes lower. The number of people that can escape is the factor that influences the panic (volatility).
Last edited:
When selling options of the European Style (ie. exercise/assignment possible only at expiration date),
does then the development of the volatility during the life time of the option play any role for the option seller?
For the option buyer it obviously plays a role, but IMO not for the option seller. Right?
(Take this fact as a valuable hot trading tip provided by botpro...
)
does then the development of the volatility during the life time of the option play any role for the option seller?
For the option buyer it obviously plays a role, but IMO not for the option seller. Right?
(Take this fact as a valuable hot trading tip provided by botpro...
)
Last edited:
You really should stop saying silly things...When selling options of the European Style (ie. exercise/assignment possible only at expiration date),
does then the development of the volatility during the life time of the option play any role for the option seller?
For the option buyer it obviously plays a role, but IMO not for the option seller. Right?
(Take this fact as a valuable hot trading tip provided by botpro...
Are you also mentally capable to explain what exactly you find wrong in my statement?
Because otherwise I won't know or understand my error, if any.
Well, let me ask you a couple of leading questions then... Do you care about mark-to-mkt, drawdown, that sort of thing? Does it make sense to you that a particular factor matters to the buyer of an option and not to the seller, given that these two mkt positions are reciprocal?
Drawdown I know very well, but mark-to-mkt I would need to lookup first...
So, what is your point?
Mark-to-market accounting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark-to-market_accounting
"
Mark-to-market or fair value accounting refers to accounting for the "fair value" of an asset or liability based on the current market price, or for similar assets and liabilities, or based on another objectively assessed "fair" value.[1] Fair value accounting has been a part of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in the United States since the early 1990s, and is now regarded as the "gold standard" in some circles.[2]
Mark-to-market accounting can change values on the balance sheet as market conditions change. In contrast, historical cost accounting, based on the past transactions, is simpler, more stable, and easier to perform, but does not represent current market value. It summarizes past transactions instead. Mark-to-market accounting can become volatile if market prices fluctuate greatly or change unpredictably. Buyers and sellers may claim a number of specific instances when this is the case, including inability to value the future income and expenses both accurately and collectively, often due to unreliable information, or over-optimistic or over-pessimistic expectations of cash flow and earnings.
"
So, then allow me this basic question: how does this relate to my posting?
Last edited: