how do you guys pick tops and bottoms

Quote from dazed101:

hi, can you guys kindly share how to pick tops and bottoms fairly accurately using technical analysis? thanks
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You can't.
Use S/R & Volume. Throw away your MACD/ Stoch's etc.
Or...

1. Find uptrend
2. Buy dip

Good luck!
 
Quote from dazed101:

hi, can you guys kindly share how to pick tops and bottoms fairly accurately using technical analysis? thanks
More...
I believe you can pick tops and bottoms with consistency using a system that capitalizes on extremes in sentiment. Here are some examples.

On 4/24/06, I stated that the stock market was due for a correction of 5% or more within two months. Within two weeks of my Call, the S&P 500 reached a top of 1325.76 on 5/5/06. Within 2 months of my Call on 4/24/06, the S&P 500 corrected over 5%. See the link below for my call for a S&P 500 correction on 4/24/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1702

On 5/10/06, I stated that Gold would go down and the US Dollar Index would go up within 8 weeks. Two days after my Call, Gold (London PM Fix) topped out at $725 on 5/12/06 and declined over 20% within the next 8 weeks. See the link below for my call for a gold decline on 5/10/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1772

On 7/17/06, I stated that the S&P 500 would rally to at least 1265 or more within 8 weeks. On 7/17/06, the S&P 500 closed at 1234.49. Nearly 1 week later on 7/25/06, the S&P 500 closed at 1268.88, reaching my target of 1265 within 8 weeks of my Call on 7/17/06. See the link below for my call for a S&P 500 rally on 7/17/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2072

On 8/14/06, I stated that the XAL (Airline Index) would rally to at least 47 or more from its close of 44.65 on 8/11/06. I stated that the rally would occur within 4 weeks. 2 days after my Call on 8/14/06, the XAL reached my target of 47 by closing at 47.98 on 8/16/06. See the link below for my call for a XAL rally on 8/14/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2198

On 8/28/06, I stated that the XOI Index was due for a 5% correction or more from its closing high of 1219.21 on 8/9/06. I stated that the correction would occur within 4 weeks. One week later on 9/5/06, the XOI index closed at 1155.49 which was a 5% correction from its closing high of 1219.21 on 8/9/06. See the link below for my call for a decline in the XOI Index on 8/28/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2286
 
Quote from YIELDSAFE:

I believe you can pick tops and bottoms with consistency using a system that capitalizes on extremes in sentiment. Here are some examples.

On 4/24/06, I stated that the stock market was due for a correction of 5% or more within two months. Within two weeks of my Call, the S&P 500 reached a top of 1325.76 on 5/5/06. Within 2 months of my Call on 4/24/06, the S&P 500 corrected over 5%. See the link below for my call for a S&P 500 correction on 4/24/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1702

On 5/10/06, I stated that Gold would go down and the US Dollar Index would go up within 8 weeks. Two days after my Call, Gold (London PM Fix) topped out at $725 on 5/12/06 and declined over 20% within the next 8 weeks. See the link below for my call for a gold decline on 5/10/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1772

On 7/17/06, I stated that the S&P 500 would rally to at least 1265 or more within 8 weeks. On 7/17/06, the S&P 500 closed at 1234.49. Nearly 1 week later on 7/25/06, the S&P 500 closed at 1268.88, reaching my target of 1265 within 8 weeks of my Call on 7/17/06. See the link below for my call for a S&P 500 rally on 7/17/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2072

On 8/14/06, I stated that the XAL (Airline Index) would rally to at least 47 or more from its close of 44.65 on 8/11/06. I stated that the rally would occur within 4 weeks. 2 days after my Call on 8/14/06, the XAL reached my target of 47 by closing at 47.98 on 8/16/06. See the link below for my call for a XAL rally on 8/14/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2198

On 8/28/06, I stated that the XOI Index was due for a 5% correction or more from its closing high of 1219.21 on 8/9/06. I stated that the correction would occur within 4 weeks. One week later on 9/5/06, the XOI index closed at 1155.49 which was a 5% correction from its closing high of 1219.21 on 8/9/06. See the link below for my call for a decline in the XOI Index on 8/28/06.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2286
More...
BullShit
 
Quote from dazed101:

lol, well, I asked HOW do you pick tops and bottoms, not did you pick tops and bottoms. I want to know a strategy.
More...

You can see a formation of top/bottom, you will never be able to pinpoint them consistently though. Firstly, you need to know certain formations that are present at times of most tops/bottoms. I can advise looking into divergences together with a failure swing pattern. Here is a chart posted by Buy1Sell2 of 1987 weekly S&P500 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1217570

On it you can observe how the price was going higher, when:

1. MACD has created a double top - bearish divergence;
2. Histogram shows a lower 2nd peak - bearish divergence;
3. RSI shows a lower 2nd peak - failure swing/divergence;

Occasionally you will nail them spot on, but most times you won't. There are different methods of trading these patterns, you'll have to find your own way. At the moment I am short S&P500 (ES) based on the presence of a bearish divergence in the daily chart, also bought SPY call options as insurance. That's just an example of how one can trade a possible top, not knowing exactly at which point it will happen if it will happen at all.
 
dazed, think about it my friend. Picking top and bottoms with accuracy means you can make all the money you want. Why don't you start a thread with the title, "Wanted: World's most successful traders to show me their secrets to making a fortune" cos that's what you're asking.

You'll do better if you state what you know and what experience you have and asking for suggestions to help you take the next step - but starting off with a request to go the winners podium - hmm, not clever.

I'm all on for giving a guy a leg up - but giving him my edge that I've slaved and bled over to develop - that's taking the piss, even if it's unintentional.
 
Quote from romik:

You can see a formation of top/bottom, you will never be able to pinpoint them consistently though. Firstly, you need to know certain formations that are present at times of most tops/bottoms. I can advise looking into divergences together with a failure swing pattern. Here is a chart posted by Buy1Sell2 of 1987 weekly S&P500 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1217570

On it you can observe how the price was going higher, when:

1. MACD has created a double top - bearish divergence;
2. Histogram shows a lower 2nd peak - bearish divergence;
3. RSI shows a lower 2nd peak - failure swing/divergence;

Occasionally you will nail them spot on, but most times you won't. There are different methods of trading these patterns, you'll have to find your own way. At the moment I am short S&P500 (ES) based on the presence of a bearish divergence in the daily chart, also bought SPY call options as insurance. That's just an example of how one can trade a possible top, not knowing exactly at which point it will happen if it will happen at all.
More...

Here is Silver chart, where you can see that pattern/s present every time.
 

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