Hanhao, it's <b>mass psychology</b>- not mechanical engineering or quantum physics.
In the markets, fear and greed always trump ones and zeros.
In the markets, fear and greed always trump ones and zeros.
how do you do your fundamental analysis and get fair value?
- Thread starter hanhao
- Start date
If millions of people... including 12 year olds... and every analyst on the Street...
Are calculating and staring at the same simple ratios...
Exactly why would this be uselful for trading?
If the ratios look low or high...
Something fundamental is happening to price the company that way.
Use GOOG as an example... PE 81.
You cannot say 81 is "too high" or "too low".
14,000,000 shares/day says 81 is correct.
The average person is not buying this $400 stock...
It is being driven up by very sophisticated venture capitalist or hedge fund types...
All of whom are software engineers or have a few on payroll.
You MUST be a Computer Professional to understand what GOOG is doing...
It cannot be explained to a layman...
Any more than the fine points of brain surgery can be explained to a layman.
That's what I see here...
People staring at charts and ratios...
Who do not have the foggiest idea about the paradigm shift GOOG trying to create.
GOOG is not a "search company".
rm+
We encourage a full analysis of our "children" stocks (which we trade day in and day out)...and their "peers" for RS purposes and intraday movement...and even for "opening only" orders.
When I get filled on HD on the opening, short for example, and the market is going up...I immediately check LOW to see where it is trading...and I know the basics ...I can make a better decision for my exits.
Growth vs. Strong basics...etc.
Don
When I get filled on HD on the opening, short for example, and the market is going up...I immediately check LOW to see where it is trading...and I know the basics ...I can make a better decision for my exits.
Growth vs. Strong basics...etc.
Don
WallStGolfer31
Guest
Forecast revenues, then expenses, from this you can find earnings. After that forecast a growth rate, and find a corosponding PE for the industry that matches that growth rate the company has. Plug in the earnings estimates into your PE equation and derive a price!
This is your estimated "fair" value.
This is your estimated "fair" value.
"If millions of people... including 12 year olds... and every analyst on the Street...
Are calculating and staring at the same simple ratios...
Exactly why would this be uselful for trading?
"If the ratios look low or high...
Something fundamental is happening to price the company that way.
Use GOOG as an example... PE 81.
You cannot say 81 is "too high" or "too low".
14,000,000 shares/day says 81 is correct.
The average person is not buying this $400 stock...
It is being driven up by very sophisticated venture capitalist or hedge fund types...
All of whom are software engineers or have a few on payroll."
if your implication is that "sophisticated" (lol) people necessarily make better investors, i suggest two servings of peter lynch, and a side order of ben graham
"You MUST be a Computer Professional to understand what GOOG is doing...
It cannot be explained to a layman...
Any more than the fine points of brain surgery can be explained to a layman"
it doesn't mean an intelligent, focused investor who 'buys what he knows" can't and isn't able to recognize value LOoooooong before wall street.
heck, even friggin cramer was laffed at when he said GOOG 250 not THAT long ago
i got the same naysayers when i bot the UARM ipo or HANS @ 20.
i bot what i knew. and i did the fundamental analysis. which is NOT just about #'s on a balance sheet.
but i do agree, that since anybody can type the EDGAR url into their browser and read, the #'s don't themselves offer an edge.
insightful analysis and incorporating those #'s into the bigger picture - DOES
Are calculating and staring at the same simple ratios...
Exactly why would this be uselful for trading?
"If the ratios look low or high...
Something fundamental is happening to price the company that way.
Use GOOG as an example... PE 81.
You cannot say 81 is "too high" or "too low".
14,000,000 shares/day says 81 is correct.
The average person is not buying this $400 stock...
It is being driven up by very sophisticated venture capitalist or hedge fund types...
All of whom are software engineers or have a few on payroll."
if your implication is that "sophisticated" (lol) people necessarily make better investors, i suggest two servings of peter lynch, and a side order of ben graham
"You MUST be a Computer Professional to understand what GOOG is doing...
It cannot be explained to a layman...
Any more than the fine points of brain surgery can be explained to a layman"
it doesn't mean an intelligent, focused investor who 'buys what he knows" can't and isn't able to recognize value LOoooooong before wall street.
heck, even friggin cramer was laffed at when he said GOOG 250 not THAT long ago
i got the same naysayers when i bot the UARM ipo or HANS @ 20.
i bot what i knew. and i did the fundamental analysis. which is NOT just about #'s on a balance sheet.
but i do agree, that since anybody can type the EDGAR url into their browser and read, the #'s don't themselves offer an edge.
insightful analysis and incorporating those #'s into the bigger picture - DOES