How do you Avoid Chop without missing the break (intraday)?
- Thread starter zghorner
- Start date
As I said close of candle#10. The prior 9 candles were stagnating/hesitating/whatnot. Of course price could have broken to the upside, but probabilities were on the side of the shorts at that point. But IMO waiting for bar# 10 low to be taken out is to use your expression ... giving up too much meat.
7,8,9 formed a reversal pattern that is very high probability.
be warned volume from my experience of 30 years is a very fickle indicator, volume increasing but bars not moving strongly is churning and it often leads to reversal .
Thank you man I've always appreciated your help. I use the daily chart to help determine directional bias at the start of the day. I will set trendlines, support/resistance off long term charts also as I believe they hold some predictive value..."support broken turns into resistance" and vice versa etc...
Sticking to pretty basic stuff. I don't have as much faith in patterns as many ET members though.
I am going to test some of the ones mentioned in this thread on 15min and daily charts in my specific market & trading hours. Maybe something will show significant odds idk.
I will say this though...finding significant odds seems like the name of the game and I don't think it's as easy as people let on...on top of that -> you have the human element and execution that has to be pretty refined as well.
Come Christmas I could very easily be posting from an Obama phone using Wendy's wifi from a cardboard box mansion behind the dumpster.
I'm having to buy too many lessons still so just reaching out for some information. I feel like there is little to no room for error or the market will eat me. Like a dragon gobling up all the suckers gold while the traders ride it in complete comfort.
The prime brokers are trying to drive the trading as far away from VWAP as possible. This is because they are obligated to deliver VWAP. Therefore, they have an incentive to keep overdone trends alive, and make sure the bulk of their volume gets done at prices favorable to VWAP.
My advice is to always be aware of where VWAP is and keep an eye out for where the size trading could best manipulate it. I use a machine learning function on prices but VWAP is always the real story. Look up guaranteed VWAP for more info. The real size is getting done by banks and the execution price is guaranteed before VWAP is even known. Let that sink in.
My advice is to always be aware of where VWAP is and keep an eye out for where the size trading could best manipulate it. I use a machine learning function on prices but VWAP is always the real story. Look up guaranteed VWAP for more info. The real size is getting done by banks and the execution price is guaranteed before VWAP is even known. Let that sink in.
Like weather patterns, no two charts or PA are the same. I wrote down @padutrader's, @schizo's instructions on a piece of paper and tried to trade with it in real time.
Mostly I couldn't recognize the patterns and mostly don't behave like they said. Need more practice I guess.
Minite lol. Minute*
Mynoodle haha
The ability to tell real breakouts is a true edge. Even so it’s not 100%, just a higher probability than randomness depending on how big the edge is. Obviously, more experience and time in the market will improve any edge.
If you are patient enough you’ll see it clearly, though often too late. But in trading it’s almost always better to be late than too early. If late but not too late you have a very high probability of winning, like the recent heated discussions about 2nd entry on this forum.
If you are patient enough you’ll see it clearly, though often too late. But in trading it’s almost always better to be late than too early. If late but not too late you have a very high probability of winning, like the recent heated discussions about 2nd entry on this forum.
Man, you need to provide more context than mere 15 or so candles (as in the chart below). That's not enough to get a complete picture. For example, where is the previous S/R? Does it connect to previous major trendline? Was this a continuation of the previous selloff or is it a reversal from a rally? Your chart doesn't tell me any of that.
My bad, its not much context as I just plucked the first choppy movement I saw to show a quick example and didn't analyze it beyond that either.Man, you need to provide more context than mere 15 or so candles (as in the chart below). That's not enough to get a complete picture. For example, where is the previous S/R? Does it connect to previous major trendline? Was this a continuation of the previous selloff or is it a reversal from a rally? Your chart doesn't tell me any of that.
Things like the Red Gravestone doji right before the drop look like textbook easy stuff...especially considering the chop high was another gravestone...but is that actual edge? I guess you'd just have to test for probabilities and go from there.