We could still see final 200 point push in the final 10 minutes.
The volume in the Dow is really picking up now
The volume in the Dow is really picking up now
How Do We Nail the Bottom?
- Thread starter netedge
- Start date
Friday and today's close represent the first penetrations and holds of the VIX beneath it's 20day Moving Average since September 8th. It has been holding as support for the VIX for the last 2 weeks and is finally no longer holding. I find this to be significant as I see the markets beginning to stabilize. This will lead to a market that will eventually develop an equilibrium based once again on value rather than panic.
Meanwhile, per my earlier posts here are today's rosy headlines:
Viacom profit drops
Treasurys could get beaten down
Banks hold cash, limit lending
Marvell lowers outlook
Mastercard reports quarterly net loss of $194 million
Pepco third-quarter net income slides to 59 cents a share
Circuit City to shut 155 stores to preserve cash and stay afloat
GM, Ford post big October sales drops, so does Toyota
Citi say credit card losses may hit record levels in 2009
And that was the GOOD news. The rest was really bad! So the markets must have really plummeted on this plethora of bad news - right???? WRONG - Dow down 5 today and S&P down 2, NASD up 5. As I have been saying, the market KNOWS this bad news is coming and has baked it in well in advance.
Moral to the story - when markets don't go down on bad news, that's a bullish sign. Those that think the ongoing recession will kill the markets is confusing the news with the projections being made by the markets. When you think your wife is going to slap you and she simply sneers at you that's a positive surprise - right??
Meanwhile, per my earlier posts here are today's rosy headlines:
Viacom profit drops
Treasurys could get beaten down
Banks hold cash, limit lending
Marvell lowers outlook
Mastercard reports quarterly net loss of $194 million
Pepco third-quarter net income slides to 59 cents a share
Circuit City to shut 155 stores to preserve cash and stay afloat
GM, Ford post big October sales drops, so does Toyota
Citi say credit card losses may hit record levels in 2009
And that was the GOOD news. The rest was really bad! So the markets must have really plummeted on this plethora of bad news - right???? WRONG - Dow down 5 today and S&P down 2, NASD up 5. As I have been saying, the market KNOWS this bad news is coming and has baked it in well in advance.
Moral to the story - when markets don't go down on bad news, that's a bullish sign. Those that think the ongoing recession will kill the markets is confusing the news with the projections being made by the markets. When you think your wife is going to slap you and she simply sneers at you that's a positive surprise - right??
So my projection of S&P 1075 (50% retracement of August highs to the bottom) seems very approachable at this point. First we would need to break the recent high of 1044 set on Oct. 14th before we made the big final drop.
Next stop from there would likely be S&P 1200 which represents at least 3 key convergence areas:
-50% retracement from the market high in fall '07
-major market low pivot location from July '08
-23.6% fib retracement from August 11th pivot high
These are projections - not predictions. They can, however, form a basis for developing trade ideas.
Good trading!!
Next stop from there would likely be S&P 1200 which represents at least 3 key convergence areas:
-50% retracement from the market high in fall '07
-major market low pivot location from July '08
-23.6% fib retracement from August 11th pivot high
These are projections - not predictions. They can, however, form a basis for developing trade ideas.
Good trading!!
Yes, the VIX fell today on a "non-rising" market because the market was very orderly and "normal" today in what has recently been a very abnormal world. The markets are looking for stabilization and appear to be getting it the past few days.
Anything that brings order to the markets will reduce the VIX from panic levels to more normal levels. It should also give us reason to be more confident in our trades that they will follow the more orderly patterns we grew accustomed to in the past (ie the ability to use tighter stop losses and uptrends last longer than 1 hour).
)Here is this morning's financial headline - sound familiar?
32 a.m. EST Nov. 4, 2008Comments: 113LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures pointed higher Tuesday as voters headed to the polls to choose a new president and as some analysts say much of the bad news around the economy and corporate profits are already priced into stocks.
Anybody feeling just slightly bullish yet
32 a.m. EST Nov. 4, 2008Comments: 113LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures pointed higher Tuesday as voters headed to the polls to choose a new president and as some analysts say much of the bad news around the economy and corporate profits are already priced into stocks.
Anybody feeling just slightly bullish yet
The major market indices and many sector ETFs are all in the natural rally phase. Dow will be in the uptrend phase if it close at 9800 or higher today. It is interesting to note that, in this round of market bounce, DOW leads, SP500 seconds, then Nasdaq, N225, emerging markets, and finally sector funds follow.