How Do We Nail the Bottom?

Quote from gkishot:

Netedge, what is your estimate of the market's "fair value"?
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Now that I have given my opinion, here is a much more thorough discussion of the current "value" of the S&P put into a historical perspective. This is one of the best articles I have read on the potential of this downturn to be the "bottom" by John Hussman.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081027.htm
 
If the period is comparable to 1964-1982 (and I think it may be), the starting year certainly isn't now. It's probably 1998, when the indices were higher than today. That means we're already 10 years into a sideways market.

Also, the fact remains that the Dow and S&P are working off higher highs (2000 to 2007) and higher lows (10/10/02 to 10/10/08...a coincidence???). That means a long-term bullish trend is still intact, even if it's a weak one that's mostly moving sideways. Good ol' Dow Theory.

Quote from IShopAtPublix:

Exactly right. Base is essential here. You don't just bounce like a ping pong ball. It is also VERY telling that in 2002-2007 bull markets SP only slightly topped its previous all time high and NASDAQ was nowhere near its high. I say the next decade will be spent "wasting people's time" ala what happened from 1964-1982 I think.
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Good stuff. Hussman is the man. His stock fund has soundly beaten the S&P and almost all other mutual funds and hedge funds for the last 7 years. His views carry a lot more weight than almost anyone at ET, because they're backed by a plethora of research and data. He's also both a PhD economist and real world investor/trader.

Quote from netedge:

Now that I have given my opinion, here is a much more thorough discussion of the current "value" of the S&P put into a historical perspective. This is one of the best articles I have read on the potential of this downturn to be the "bottom" by John Hussman.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081027.htm
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Yay futures surging yet again

this market knows only one direction: up

just like 2005: buy all the dips. 100% up room

all econ and earnings data better than expected

Dow 14,000 in 15 months

12K end of year
 
Instead of hijacking this thread, can't you start your own? The subject matter is determining if a market bottom is in place based on historical patterns. It's not a place to predict today's closing price.

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Another 200 point rally today or even 500 points
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Quote from stock_trad3r:

Yay futures surging yet again

this market knows only one direction: up

all econ and earnings data better than expected
More...

Ok, which one of those came true today? Futures, 9400 to low as 9275. Market has been going down and sideways today. ISM econ data was over 6% lower than expected.
 
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