How Do We Nail the Bottom?

Quote from frank grimes:

He's getting closer. He did basically admit that he has no money invested in the market by say the credit crisis has not affected him. Stock, do you even have a job? Ask your parents if the economy has changed over the last year, they can tell you it has. Why should the dow be at 13k? If you hadn't noticed earnings have been hammered pretty good here. Please tell all on et why you are right and everyone else is wrong.
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Well, I might just take stocky off ignore... I wasn't going to trade today until after a LOD breach, but I just closed an ES short for $1,720 as a fade to his post about Dow 8500. Thanks guy, as long as I run you through an inverter, you might be worth something. :cool:
 
Thanks Matt. Somebody's putting out some faulty data today. ThinkorSwim, Prophet and Yahoo say 96.40. TradeStation says otherwise. I would tend to believe Tradestation as 96.40 is outrageous.

CBOE agrees with Tradestation and says the high today was ONLY 79.43. Looks like the 3 Amigos above must all use the same source for their incorrect data today.
 
To netedge,

To get the "downtrend over"signal, we first have a "downtrend" established, then a "naturally rally" established, and finally a retest of of the bottom in the downtrend and a bounce from the bottom by a significant amount X. If the subsequent moves penetrate the bottom by the same significant amount X, the downtrend resumes and the signal is invalid. So far,
the signal is still valid. You can get the details from the book by Livermore.
 
Quote from HKIB:

To netedge,

To get the "downtrend over"signal, we first have a "downtrend" established, then a "naturally rally" established, and finally a retest of of the bottom in the downtrend and a bounce from the bottom by a significant amount X. If the subsequent moves penetrate the bottom by the same significant amount X, the downtrend resumes and the signal is invalid. So far,
the signal is still valid. You can get the details from the book by Livermore.
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Thanks HKIB. I have read a book about Livermore's life that discusses some of his strategy and it would appear to be very valid even today.

As for the markets today, you had a near double bottom today on the ES (Emini S&P futures) at 9:30am. Today's low was 840.25 and the low on 10/10 was 837. The Dow and NASD did not get close to their 10/10 lows however. If we're going to penetrate the S&P lows it will likely happen later today or Monday. That should be a good indicator of how this sideways channel will resolve.
 
We´re only at yesterdays lows. not a big deal, really. no good reason for selling

people need to stop selling. that would help alot. aso need more bailouts. shorts should be forced to cover.
 
Worth noting - the VIX is up to 81 which is even higher than 10/10 high of 79. Layoffs are beginning to be announced right and left. This will ultimately lead to a reduction in consumer spending.

So as I have stated earlier I want to see the VIX move under 50 and stay there for a couple of weeks. AND I want to see the market quit worrying about the downward guidance being announced by all the public corporations.

We are about to see every national and international public company in existence lower guidance. For some reason that seems to still be rocking the markets right now :confused:

When the markets finally begin shrugging their shoulders at the never-ending procession of lowered guidance - we'll know it's all finally baked into the market prices and it's safe for us to get back in. Until then the roller coaster ride will be in full force...
 
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