How Do We Nail the Bottom?

[netedge]

Quote from 1flyfisher:

s&p made new closing lows by a small amount.

It is a new closing low which some might call a double bottom but I go by the intraday low - especially considering the doji on the 10th. In this case I don't think today's close was that significant aside from the way it held above the trendline of the recent lows.

I believe the interim direction will be determined by what happens tomorrow - particularly if we close above the trendline of the recent highs tomorrow at around 970.

 

[Bear Plunger]

Quote from 1flyfisher:

the 11% rally was a bear market rally otherwise called a bear trap suckers rally to lure in idiots such as yourself.

Exactly...most people still haven't accepted the fact that we could possibly be in a bear market, so they actually believe that these rallies are signs that it's all over and 'they got in at the bottom'.

Think of all those suckers that bought into the close that day. You know what's going to happen if we pierce the lows very soon - all those bulls are going to sell out....or watch their accounts dwindle and hit the sell button.

 

[coolweb]

a phase of a bottom would look like this

[bottom ] [jump up ] [back down ] [consolidation] [jump up ] [enter]


just measuer where we are at on the bottom, sure doesn't happen in a day.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Dow still 800 points above the Oct 10th lows. It's gonna take something really dire to break the support.

 

[MaxxHeatt]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Dow still 800 points above the Oct 10th lows. It's gonna take something really dire to break the support.

You're joking, right???

 

[ammo]

how about a global collapse in currencies, dire?

 

[dumpandbasher]

Quote from MaxxHeatt:

You're joking, right???

Of course, but so many people here take the bait.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from MaxxHeatt:

You're joking, right???

not at all

Looks like the futures are surging

Dow 8,620.00 63.00 0.74
S&P 500 908.10 5.30 0.59
NASDAQ 1,249.50 1.50 0.12

Spooz up 5.3 points and dow up 63..and its only 6:00 PM

This is the so called 'futures creep' that leads to 4-6% rallies the next day after sharp selloffs

Good read:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10443810/2/market-x-rays-all-the-symptoms-of-nearing-a-bottom.html

The pros are loading up

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from coolweb:

a phase of a bottom would look like this

[bottom ] [jump up ] [back down ] [consolidation] [jump up ] [enter]


just measuer where we are at on the bottom, sure doesn't happen in a day.

====================
Exactly,cool.
And neat thing about a bear market;
lower lows[ repeat lower lows] ,lower highs,lower closes...........................

Bottoms may be called every day;
but bear trends tend to persist, not as long as bull trends,
but both usually go more than exspected.

Dont see any reason not to retest /exceed 10 year lows;
not a prediction, nor calling that the bottom.

Cool

 

[netedge]

Quote from coolweb:

a phase of a bottom would look like this

[bottom ] [jump up ] [back down ] [consolidation] [jump up ] [enter]


A consolidation off a low is typical. As is a retest before the change in direction. I don't believe we will reach the 10 year low of 768 but if we do expect to see some major buying come in at that level.

Meanwhile, with the daily VIX ranging from 50 to 80 I think we are in the range of what will be the ultimate low of this bear market. Otherwise I guess we'll all need to get used to seeing a VIX of 100 or greater.