Dow 14,000 soon. Nothing changed economically between Jne 2007 and now. This fake financial crisis and mental recession has had virtually no menasurable impact on the economy. Consumer spending still huge. Tons of consumerism, spendism, web 2.0, and paymentism. No negative GDP. The boo hoo hoo media is already calling it a deep recession when none of the economic numbers are indicitive of one. werd
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How Do We Nail the Bottom?
- Thread starter netedge
- Start date
Quote from netedge:
This should provide some additional good insight as to what is typical in a severe correction.
Worst 20 Weekly
===============
Date PctChange
10/10/2008 -18.195%
This is neither a correction nor recession. A correction would have occurred without governmental tampering. No more. A recession is measured by economic quarters of negative growth. This is an 1873-style dropoff to a long depression.
Also, you could aptly title October 08 as the worst 17 consecutive trading days in the market's history for investors. Traders cleaned up if their systems exploited the fall, but buy-and-hold 401k people received a new asshole. My friend tells me her 401k was worth more 10 years ago than today.
You are correct that October is not over yet. My bet remains on DOW 7000, but I hope I'm wrong, and have placed no puts to that bet. If more tampering occurs, 6000. If a terrorist attack comes in the meantime, 4000. Call me a fatalist, I won't be hurting either way.
The bottom is in. The funds won't let the market fall much more. There is too much value and too much growth in too many sectors.
The bottom in 2002 on the SPX was 768 and occurred on October 10, 2002. The high on the VIX that day was 50.48. The VIX went steadily down from there and we have not seen that level on the VIX until this current month we are in.
FYI that VIX number was NOT the highest in that bear market. It got over 56 twice earlier in that down market. The VIX experienced a double top in Sept. '01 and July '02 prior to putting in the bottom in Oct. This double top of 56 in the VIX was never breached so you could consider it a leading divergence to price thus signalling an early indicator of the bottom.
The VIX tested the 40 level 3 times in the next 5 months after the price low in Oct. '02 but could never hold it (ie hammer style candlesticks) and went down considerably from there. It was that 5th month (March/03) when the market began its long term upward surge that lasted until Oct. 2007. This was the very same month that was the last (failed) test of the VIX 40 level and it was a bull market from there.
I have heard some informed people say we need the VIX to settle at lower levels before we can be comfortable that the bottom has been put into place. I have told people I'd like to see the VIX settle in under 40 to be comfortable although I had not done this research until today.
Take it for what it's worth....
FYI that VIX number was NOT the highest in that bear market. It got over 56 twice earlier in that down market. The VIX experienced a double top in Sept. '01 and July '02 prior to putting in the bottom in Oct. This double top of 56 in the VIX was never breached so you could consider it a leading divergence to price thus signalling an early indicator of the bottom.
The VIX tested the 40 level 3 times in the next 5 months after the price low in Oct. '02 but could never hold it (ie hammer style candlesticks) and went down considerably from there. It was that 5th month (March/03) when the market began its long term upward surge that lasted until Oct. 2007. This was the very same month that was the last (failed) test of the VIX 40 level and it was a bull market from there.
I have heard some informed people say we need the VIX to settle at lower levels before we can be comfortable that the bottom has been put into place. I have told people I'd like to see the VIX settle in under 40 to be comfortable although I had not done this research until today.
Take it for what it's worth....
Quote from netedge:
I have heard some informed people say we need the VIX to settle at lower levels before we can be comfortable that the bottom has been put into place. I have told people I'd like to see the VIX settle in under 40 to be comfortable although I had not done this research until today.
Under 30 would work for my standard system. I have a system to exploit this new price action, but I just don't like it as much as with a lower VIX.
The huge volume on october 10th indicated a bottom.
Markets keep surging..another huge rally after a bigger one last Thursday.
+500 points -120 points +330 points =700 points in just three days
And still four more days of pain this week shorts. The week ain't over.
The era of reaganomics and supply side which began on August 1982 is NOT coming to an end. Nope no way.
We need more stimulus and more bailouts. Need more liquidity injections. more free trade and cheaper labor. less govt. regulation.
No more downside.
the huge funds aren't selling. Bing funds loading up on tech, energy, commodities
I am almost always right. The rest of 2008 is gonna be huge buying and so will 2009. Next year is gonna be the mother of all rallies. Don't sell anything for the next 15 months. Dow 14K soon.
This is not Japan. This is not Germany. In America all recoveries are 'v' shaped.
+500 points -120 points +330 points =700 points in just three days
And still four more days of pain this week shorts. The week ain't over.
The era of reaganomics and supply side which began on August 1982 is NOT coming to an end. Nope no way.
We need more stimulus and more bailouts. Need more liquidity injections. more free trade and cheaper labor. less govt. regulation.
No more downside.
the huge funds aren't selling. Bing funds loading up on tech, energy, commodities
I am almost always right. The rest of 2008 is gonna be huge buying and so will 2009. Next year is gonna be the mother of all rallies. Don't sell anything for the next 15 months. Dow 14K soon.
This is not Japan. This is not Germany. In America all recoveries are 'v' shaped.