How do I figure out consumer confidence and spending for 4Q?

M

mizhael

HI all,

I am trying to estimate the prospects of AMAZON in the 4Q.

Could anybody give me some advice/suggestions about what proxy variables I should look at in order to estimate the sales and gross margin of AMAZON for the 4Q and for the midterm and long term future?

I am thinking of consumer confidence and consumer spending reports. Are these good indicator variables? Where do I find Internet usage reports? And how do I estimate the growth of the whole e-commerce business?

And another problem is that I didn't find the consumer confidence for Sept. Are they available yet?

Yet another problem is that these numbers are not forward looking... where to find forward looking numbers for 4Q?

Moreover, I looked at the consumer confidence for July and August, the index was actually rising... but the consumer sales/retail was falling... maybe I was not getting a reliable data time series?

Please give me some advice/suggestions... if anybody is interested in such time series analysis, we could definitely discuss ...

Thanks!
 
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