Quote from sirziggy:
To address some. I've been trading almost 20 years. I use a multitude of trading strategies and this happens to be one of them. However, I am simply offering up my .2 on the pro's and con's.
Good. That's the purpose of this forum.
1.. I said, in case of a 20% market move, you aren't going to go broke as many seem to assume.
If the move is to the downside and the puts are naked, then the major loss does NOT come from the 20% move. It comes from the huge spike in implied volatility.
That's the part the poster simply does not get. He thinks that rolling will solve his problem.
2. What do you mean I assume you carry the trade to exp?...
Just based on your saying that sale represented a gain of 10% on each leg. I assumed that meant holding to the end.
If the trade goes against you, you can roll it all the way up to expiration and close the other leg.
The fact that you realize that the other leg must be closed tells me you know what you are talking about and there is no need for any disagreements between us. But, I know that rolling is not always an attractive choice and that sometimes losses must be accepted. I don't see that recognition by the poster.
3. ... Isn't that why most have lost so much in the past 12 months? The pray and hope strategy?
Sure. It's an absurd strategy. But the truth is, they have no idea what alternatives are available to them - except to sell and walk away. Sad.
4. To address this. I'm assuming in a 20% market he just BTC the position and take the 10-15% hit. Obviously, I would have to agree to disagree that on something as liquid as the spy or q's, you couldn't roll you way out, what goes up ALWAYS come down and what goes down, ALWAYS goes up. Aside from bankruptcy or something. But the spy or q's won't go to zero.
It does n't have to go to zero. Or anywhere close. All that has to happen is for there to be a large enough loss to hurt along with an IV spike that kills. If our guy is cash secured on the put side, he would never be forced to liquidate. But there is no such thing as cash-secured on the call side.
The markets may ALWAYS reverse direction in your opinion, but if that comes after your positions are liquidated due to your account moving into deficit, that's not going to be very helpful.
I don't believe they always reverse. It's true they have always done so in the past, but is that enoug to risk bankruptcy?
. I agree on with you on this. If you don't roll or reduce risk or do something, you will be screwed every time.
OK.
7. Please expand on 2008?
Big moves, big IV increase. Option values surged. Naked short option positions bankrupted many.
8. I agree it's good for accumulating stock, but I for one, don't mind buying SPY or QQQ's at a discount. It is what it is.
The writing naked puts on these is an ok method for you.
10. Overconfidence and greed are killers. People lose because they stray from a system or thing they can outplay the big boys. Keep with what you know and don't stray from the original strategy. We all know, you should know your exits before you ever enter a trade. So my advice, know what you're going to do in a bad situation before putting on the trade.
Good advice.
Mark