How do famous swing traders like Dan Zanger size up so fast?

[Rams Fan]

I'm sorta talking to myself here I guess, but this isn't strictly true. I'm linking to my earlier post that shows with pretty reasonable assumptions and totally conservative draw down, you can 100x in a year or 2.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/5893196/

I suspect very few reading your post understand the mathematics of trading. Most here seem to me to trade emotionally.

 

[ironchef]

So here's a set of returns simulated to to have a .22 expectancy ratio, 1.46 profit factor, 1.31 win rate and 52% positive returns. Starting with $10K capital, trade size 5% of total capital with 50:1 leverage, over 578 trades. I did 100K simulations like this.

This plot is a wealth curve of one iteration with total ending capital $1,463,110 and max drawdown of -$94.86 (never below $9900 total capital). The top quantiles are the total percent returns for all simulations. None below 11x, and the 95th percentile is 385x. The bottom quantiles are the min percent drawdown for all simulations. 5th percentile is -.11.

So do that one more time, and you've got $100M+. View attachment 327924 View attachment 327925

Can you explain your spreadsheet?

 

[tomkat22]

Sizing up should be directly proportionate to the confidence you have in your strategy. And only time will tell if your confidence is warranted. Otherwise you're just an idiot who's going to lose every dime he owns.

 

[Zwaen]

So here's a set of returns simulated to to have a .22 expectancy ratio, 1.46 profit factor, 1.31 win rate and 52% positive returns. Starting with $10K capital, trade size 5% of total capital with 50:1 leverage, over 578 trades. I did 100K simulations like this.

This plot is a wealth curve of one iteration with total ending capital $1,463,110 and max drawdown of -$94.86 (never below $9900 total capital). The top quantiles are the total percent returns for all simulations. None below 11x, and the 95th percentile is 385x. The bottom quantiles are the min percent drawdown for all simulations. 5th percentile is -.11.

So do that one more time, and you've got $100M+. View attachment 327924 View attachment 327925

That's R (or looks like it). Did same things in past but always asked myself what if your losses will encompass autocorrelation?
Guess only way to find out is do and pull the plug in time. Diversification will also help

 

[Rams Fan]

Maybe I'll start a thread to track these guys progress.

I am interested to see if anyone emerges with something approaching a 3 month positive equity curve. Right now it seems like it is probably more shooting from the hip than anything.

Keep in mind that they are now almost two complete months into this trading competition.

Valentini went from down +35.3% to +16.6%
Hsieh went down from +20% to +18.3%
Dressel went down from +17.2% to +11.6%
Stauffer went up +12.6% to +17.4%
Bober stayed even at +8.6%

 

[PPC]

I have tried to follow how all these (Kristian Kullamaggie is another) massive traders took sub $10k accounts to $1mm+ all while keeping good R:R?

Zanger (and his protégé Rangy Opper) enter swing trades from patterns on intraday timeframes which allows him to have very tight stop and very high R/R (>5R). Also, Zanger has the skill to trade any type of market, he’s very good technician and can read the market. He also trades false breakouts and screw bars, and such trades when traders get trapped provide very high R/R.

On the other hand, Kullamaggie seems to be a one trick pony and a gunslinger. He doesn’t seem to be a good a technical trader, it seems like he can only trade breakouts when the market is strong, and when the market changes he seems to fall apart.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I consider Kullamaggie to be just an average trader, he just risks a lot (that's all there is to it), and he talks a lot.

PS:
Large returns (and drawdowns) are reflection of position sizing, so judging trader’s skill / performance based on percentage returns is somewhat meaningless, yet for some reason retail traders get fixated on returns in percentages or in dollars.

If you take the same set of trades and risk 1%, you'll get different returns (and drawdowns) than if you'd risk 2% or 5% on the same set of trades.

Therefore, the distribution of ‘Risk-multiples’ (risk units) is what reveals the trader’s TRUE performance because it removes any distortions caused by (conservative or gunslinging) position sizing.

 

[hilmy83]

View attachment 328309

Maybe I'll start a thread to track these guys progress.

I am interested to see if anyone emerges with something approaching a 3 month positive equity curve. Right now it seems like it is probably more shooting from the hip than anything.

Keep in mind that they are now almost two complete months into this trading competition.

Valentini went from down +35.3% to +16.6%
Hsieh went down from +20% to +18.3%
Dressel went down from +17.2% to +11.6%
Stauffer went up +12.6% to +17.4%
Bober stayed even at +8.6%

Quarterly futures competition is min $2500. Might as well be demo account. You think this is representative of real professionals or just degenerates swinging for the fences?

 

[hilmy83]

And can someobdy point me to one legit press coverage for world cup??

I do like that you get a "trophy" lol

meanwhile,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-states-investing-championship-first-121500170.html
https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...tes-Investing-Championship-Nine-Month-Results
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-r...ting-championship-nine-month-results-1cee1c6f
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-rel...-investing-championship-first-quarter-results

 

[Rams Fan]

Quarterly futures competition is min $2500. Might as well be demo account. You think this is representative of real professionals or just degenerates swinging for the fences?

I doubt they view themselves as degenerates lol but I also do not think the results are those that a professional would typically generate.

The day trade competition is strictly day trade - no overnight positions allowed.

As the standings are measured by % return, it makes sense to start with the minimum and try to run it up from there.

I spoke with the broker who holds the accounts for the day trade division, and he said there were over 50 entrants and that most were negative for the contest period. Anyone with a positive return will be listed on the leaderboard, even if it is just +.01%

I do know it is not a demo account and the results are not self reported, i.e. it is real production accounts and the daily p/l is delivered by the broker directly to the Robbins people.

 

[Rams Fan]

And can someobdy point me to one legit press coverage for world cup??

The "value" to the Robbins cup over the USIC is simply that with Robbins, the results are real results from live accounts that are not self reported and not the result of photo-shopped statements.

I do not know what measures Norm may take at the end of the year, if any, to be certain that the statements submitted by the participants are legitimate trading results or, as @destriero implied, it is simply a contest for "Best Photoshopped Trading Statement."