How do famous swing traders like Dan Zanger size up so fast?

[Rams Fan]

Please refrain from commenting that the gains possibly weren't audited, that CANSLIM/momo swing trading doesnt work,that your trading system is far better blah blah blah.

lol and yet what you asked not to happen is exactly what did happen. It is what must happen, apparently, here at ET, where the name is "elitetrader" and yet there is no real discussion of trading anywhere to be found except more than a decade ago in the cobwebs.

My question is, is it more likely that guys like him are far exceeding 1% and going closer to a kelly,half kelly,optimal f etc. to attain these gains? Anything im missing?

In Momentum Masters, Zanger said he usually limits exposure per position to 10% of his equity and uses a 2-3% stop on each position. However, he bases his position size on the market (is it a strong bull or average?) and the strength of the stock in terms of price action as well as sales and earnings growth. On a strong stock he says he might have as much as 20% of his equity invested. When Google was first issued and broke out of its first base, he had 50% of his trading capital invested in that one stock.

I'm not sure Zanger is a Kelly guy in terms of be aware of and using the formula. He does, however, seem to have an intuitive sense of optimal position sizing based on stock selection and other criteria he uses.

 

[tomkat22]

Kris' break-out strategy is obviously only one of many strategies out there. And admittedly it works much better in a bull market. It's an invaluable tool to have in one's toolbox though. If someone endeavors to learn it I would suggest they lock themselves in room for a month and watch every youtube video he's made,there's probably several hundred of them.

 

[Rams Fan]

When I decided to enter, I thought about World Cup, but because they force you to go with the sponsored brokers, I decided to go with US Investing. Just not willing to switch brokers and having to pay 30% more in commission (Ironbeam vs AMP).

Plus like @Darc days, USIC is way more promoted than World Cup (business insider, bloomberg, yahoo finance, forbes, etc.). Plus previous market wizards participated in the same competition. It's been going on since the 80s!

If anything, you're paying few hundred for the publicity at least lol.

If publicity, raising capital, etc. were the goal, then self-interest would probably point you toward Zadeh's competition.

But if I were to square off head to head with someone for bragging rights or beers, I'd want us to use Robbins as it is updated every night and the update comes directly from the broker.

Yes, the commission is crazy high compared to AMP or Ninjatrader or well, just about anywhere.

Robbins now has a quarterly day trading competition, and the broker is Global Futures introducing to Dorman.

World Cup Trading Championship Standings | World Cup Trading Championships (worldcupchampionships.com)

Here is the day trading leaderboard for the current quarter through tonight:

I've been watching this since early last week. Carl Dressel has been on it every day, I belive. But it is a volatile board. The other three traders are on the board by virtue of their gains from today, as none of them were on the leaderboard as of Friday's close, if I remember correctly. I think on Friday it was just Carl and one other guy and that other guy I think is gone.

I spoke with the broker who handles the accounts for this competition. Over 50 traders have entered and the leader board shows all those who have a positive return. Assume 50 traders started, 46 are currently net negative since the October 1, 2023 start date.

This is the platform I would suggest for an ET trading contest. Maybe some of these day trading sharp shooters will sign up and we can have a Robbins Cup ET thread for Q1, 2024.

 

[M.W.]

Why? To ESTABLISH a track record. Omg, what have we all discussed over 20 pages. Have you been sleeping? A reliably audited track record that speaks in favor of one's trading acumen brings in tons of new clients and removes every last inch of doubt. As @longandshort pointed out returns are not enough, the source of the returns matters and the distribution of returns

Not only to raise capital but for paid subscriptions, views, the chance to step up into the professional arena,...

If one does not care about the above why open the pile hole and let the whole world know how one is performing in the first place.

This is getting stupid, I can't possibly provide a more logically coherent argument than this.

Yes, I see the new standard now is a track recorded audited by Ernst & Young. And if such would be provided, it would probably be explained away as sheer luck or using insane risk anyway.

So what's the use? Why should anyone go through that kind of trouble to prove what exactly and to whom?

Would only make sense if someone were trying to raise external capital. Certainly not to convince non-believers on ET. LOL.

 

[M.W.]

Don't be a lame duck and change topic and make it about me. So, you can't provide any track records and clearly take those guys' word for it. I find that naive and borderline idiotic, but to each his own.

You're really starting to sound ridiculous at this point, so don't waste your breath.

I bet you're just grumpy that you missed this latest rally in US equities.

 

[M.W.]

Can't agree more, I thought that was common knowledge by anyone who read a book or two. It's shocking that this has to still be explained to some who have been here for years...

You guys are a bit too gullible. Yes there are plenty of ways to make money investing and trading. However, there's a distinction between luck and skill. To know whether someone is skillful, you would need to not just audit their performance but also conduct an attribution analysis. This is a widely followed process in the institutional space (you don't think sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and other institutional investors are looking for pnl?!).

Let me explain why this is important. If I take 10k and buy some calls on a basket of 10 stocks, I may "get lucky" with 1 stock that takes my 10k to Xmm+. Skill means having a process that is repeatable and can be used to find opportunities.

I have no doubt that the traders named previously have made money. Where I am skeptical is in whether they are actually skillful (as opposed to lucky). If they are lucky, then they are not a good source to learn from. If they are skillful, then they are.

Evidence of skill would be: hit rate above 50-55%, attribution of pnl coming from lots of sources (and not just a small handful of mega trades), proof in the performance of some underlying factor.

Another illustration to evidence skill vs. luck -- how applicable are the skills they teach vs. hedge fund jobs? Wouldn't a successful retail trader be able to "grow" into a hedge fund role? Yes if they are skillful, no if they are lucky (because you can see right through the luck vs. skill argument based upon attribution details).

For you retail traders -- keep up the hope and learn to build a style that suits you.

 

[M.W.]

...to ramp up views ;-)

Kris' break-out strategy is obviously only one of many strategies out there. And admittedly it works much better in a bull market. It's an invaluable tool to have in one's toolbox though. If someone endeavors to learn it I would suggest they lock themselves in room for a month and watch every youtube video he's made,there's probably several hundred of them.

 

[tomkat22]

...to ramp up views ;-)

I seriously doubt if Kris gives shit about youtube views. All those videos on youtube are just recordings of his Twitch live stream.

 

[Darc]

Quallamaggie has other people do the Moderating and Youtube chit.

Seriously, trading is a lonely business. Why do we all come here? Coz we are all looking at Computer screen or some Book etc. Why else would we all put up with each other if Trading and Learning and Testing wasn't such a lonely business. You're all kunts! (said nicely).

Maybe Quallamaggie should do a Ken and buy some Sex Dolls, then he wouldn't feel the need to "socialize".

 

[running_bare]

LOL

1/ Listen to the the ex- and institutional & fundie wannabe fktards COPING

"He took too much risk" they said
"He didn't do this or that metric"

Translation: "He made $100 MM the wrong way!"

LMAO...there's no wrong way to make $100 MM

There are no "rules".
Maybe in "your book" there is

The only thing that matters with others IRL is that you did it (in this case, 9 figures).
He did it.
Not how you did it

Y'all sound like whiny little beetches COPING hard because he didn't do it "your way".
No one cares about your fancy market-neutral, statistical arbitrage model. Whoop de do.

Fking autistic nerds must be a riot at parties.
You know the the types.
Within the first 30 sec of meeting them they're spitting out their resume, achievements & work experience. Insecure fktards. Bwhahaha


2/ What was the actual maximum money at risk?

$50,000 or w/e initial stake
The grub stake. That's it

So how TF did he "take too much risk"?
It was $50,000 (or w/e) he was prepared to lose.
Whether he was up $20 MM or not, the max stake at risk he could lose was still $50,000.
His account couldn't go debit (contingent liabilities), he wasn't trading electricity.
He was trading stocks

He is responsible & accountable to himself only.
He was trading his own money.
He wasn't trading OPM or your money.
He doesn't have to answer to some boss or anyone.
He doesn't want to go institutional with a "track record"

So who gives a shit that his risk tolerance doesn't agree with yours


3/ Elsewhere in business, accumulating $100 MM from a tiny stake $50,000 (or w/e) is admired

But NOT in trading...if they didn't do it "your way". LOL

No one ever says about entrepreneurs who make $100 MM starting from a tiny $50,000, "he took too much risk!"

(Translation: "He made $100 MM the wrong way!")

It's admired, the proverbial rags to riches story

(for said entrepreneur, the max at-risk capital to lose is say $50,000 the initial stake, same initial stake as the trader)


Same reward ($100MM) & risk ($50,000) for both entrepreneur & trader

Yet IYI (intelligent yet idiots) treat it differently & irrationally

Clearly they have a agenda

LOL