You people have no idea what commies are capable of! Anyone thinking that they are not significantly cooking their books should prepare for a big surprise down the road. China is not the US or EU! Communism is rotten down to the roots and China is no exception. People in the west have no clue -> they are only interested in making money and that plays well into the hands of the leadership there. But even with all what I have said I still believe that China will come out ahead of everybody in this century (that is if they manage to transform their political system to something better than dictatorship).
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How China Cooks Its Books & The Growing Risk of a Chinese Economic Implosion
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
You are wasting your time with this guy, I assure you. What those guys are forgetting is that China underwent a cultural revolution that has stifled its economy, innovative spirit, cultural values...without this black spot in history I would be hard pressed to even guess how far ahead of other leading powerhouses China may be today. But thats all speculation. Fact is there still are a billion or so citizens who are hungry to participate in a higher living standard and they are willing to do anything to get there. Its some way to go but the rate of improvement in all aspect of life in China is simply mind blowing.
Manufactoring in China is already decreasing in certain sectors, e.g., fabric manufacturing is moving to the next cheaper locations outside of the country. But it looks like China has all the potential to build itself into a major service hub and that includes finance, R&D.
Manufactoring in China is already decreasing in certain sectors, e.g., fabric manufacturing is moving to the next cheaper locations outside of the country. But it looks like China has all the potential to build itself into a major service hub and that includes finance, R&D.
Quote from truehawk:
Lets see. Silk, movable type, first Iron, first iron castings (that we know of),first gunpowder, first mathematical system with a zero that could handle division, probably first circumnavigation of the globe. The Chinese peaked in discovery and innovation a couple of thousand years ago. Scary when you think about how much they have lost, and why they lost so much.
With Wall Street sending our manufacturing to China, China will be an innovation powerhouse in 20 years. Most inovation builds on current practice and is about observing the happy accident and capturing what just happened to make further improvements.
Since we moved manufacturing the Chinese are going to be the ones doing the observing.
then you did not read my posts accurately. I pointed out many of my best friends are Americans. I among pretty much the rest of the world, including your next door neighbors, despise the American individual who thinks he is better than the rest of the globe and if he is clearly proven to the contrary starts to piss on everyone.
Quote from tradestrong:
The irony there is that while you're accusing somebody else of being a "China hater", all of your posts seem to reek of being nothing but American hating.
commies? How many years/decades do you live behind the rest. If you ever have a chance to go to Shanghai then you will come back and look at New York as being run by a socialist bunch. The leadership in China is very keen on getting to a full market economy WITHOUT losing face and without introducing the stink and filth that we suffer from in Europe and the US. Guess what is going to happen to China without one-child policy, without strict enforcement of keeping the country together, without internet censure. You cant keep people under the blanket for 50 years and suddenly expect them to function like someone independent and with a free will and full sense of responsibility. Look at East Germany. People there still seem to have issues with the concept of self-reliance and independence and that more than a decade after the re-unification.
Having said that the changes China is implementing are drastic and all point in the right direction. The direction of the trend is what counts not where we stood years ago or even now. And this makes me very hopeful about China and very worrysome about the U.S.
Having said that the changes China is implementing are drastic and all point in the right direction. The direction of the trend is what counts not where we stood years ago or even now. And this makes me very hopeful about China and very worrysome about the U.S.
Quote from Banff01:
You people have no idea what commies are capable of! Anyone thinking that they are not significantly cooking their books should prepare for a big surprise down the road. China is not the US or EU! Communism is rotten down to the roots and China is no exception. People in the west have no clue -> they are only interested in making money and that plays well into the hands of the leadership there. But even with all what I have said I still believe that China will come out ahead of everybody in this century (that is if they manage to transform their political system to something better than dictatorship).
Quote from asiaprop:
commies? How many years/decades do you live behind the rest. If you ever have a chance to go to Shanghai then you will come back and look at New York as being run by a socialist bunch. The leadership in China is very keen on getting to a full market economy WITHOUT losing face and without introducing the stink and filth that we suffer from in Europe and the US. Guess what is going to happen to China without one-child policy, without strict enforcement of keeping the country together, without internet censure. You cant keep people under the blanket for 50 years and suddenly expect them to function like someone independent and with a free will and full sense of responsibility. Look at East Germany. People there still seem to have issues with the concept of self-reliance and independence and that more than a decade after the re-unification.
Having said that the changes China is implementing are drastic and all point in the right direction. The direction of the trend is what counts not where we stood years ago or even now. And this makes me very hopeful about China and very worrysome about the U.S.
You might add that the leadership in China is keenly interested in remaining the leadership in China and that will remain their top priority regardless
So over the next 50 years it will be real interesting to see if a large economy can essentially be 'directed' by a very small number of decision makers.
To date, that has never worked - even if they are very very smart guys --
My money is on a major fuck-up over there in the next 50 years - and they won't recover because the leadership will put its desire to remain in power above all else
over here we fuck up regularly, but when we do - we throw the bums out and new guys get to take a turn
Try that in China Komrade!
Quote from asiaprop:
then you did not read my posts accurately. I pointed out many of my best friends are Americans. I among pretty much the rest of the world, including your next door neighbors, despise the American individual who thinks he is better than the rest of the globe and if he is clearly proven to the contrary starts to piss on everyone.
That's a 2 way street there though. I personally never insult any other culture and make it a point not to and to respect everybody. But I've been treated like shit by people around the world who think "they are better" than me because "I'm a dirty American", so many Americans have negative perceptions of people from other countries as well.
So whose perception is correct? Yours or mine? You see my point here? We are all in the same boat and everybody acts identical regardless of where you're from. Some people choose to propagate stereotypes and look for examples to reinforce those stereotypes while being naive to the fact that by their behavior of how they react to those stereotypes feeds conversely into the stereotype of the other person.
It's a vicious cycle that everybody participates regardless of admitting to it or not.
China was growing rapidly, and its high savings rate is proof of that: savings correlates not so much to income as to growth in income, because if someone's income is growing rapidly, they will save more proportionately than someone who's income is high but stagnant, since the latter person is used to having that amount of money and therefore has expenses that will eat up most of that income. Which explains the disparity in savings between the US and China.
Whether it still is growing rapidly is the question as far as how much China's stats are manipulated. Best way to figure it out is indirectly, through China's demand for raw materials from the rest of the world, be it energy, copper, iron ore. By that measure China does seem to still have a strong economy. Only time will tell us for sure whether what we observe indirectly is for real.
Japan already answered the question of whether a centrally planned but privately operated economy can keep up the pace. It can't. But my impression, maybe mistaken, maybe not, is that China is actually less of a centrally planned economy than is Japan's. Remember, until just now, the Liberal Democratic Party ruled pretty much uncontested in Japan, so even though they had elections, it was for all practical purposes a one-party state, kinda like NYC before Giuliani. So Japan having a more planned economy than China since Deng reformed the place is not nearly as crazy as it at first sounds.
Which leaves the question of whether the political system in China can truly withstand the cycles of a private economy. It'll be interesting to see how that works.
And then there's the demographic time bomb, a result of their one child policy. It's almost a commonplace by now to observe that China is in danger of getting old before it gets rich. Another interesting thing to watch...
Whether it still is growing rapidly is the question as far as how much China's stats are manipulated. Best way to figure it out is indirectly, through China's demand for raw materials from the rest of the world, be it energy, copper, iron ore. By that measure China does seem to still have a strong economy. Only time will tell us for sure whether what we observe indirectly is for real.
Japan already answered the question of whether a centrally planned but privately operated economy can keep up the pace. It can't. But my impression, maybe mistaken, maybe not, is that China is actually less of a centrally planned economy than is Japan's. Remember, until just now, the Liberal Democratic Party ruled pretty much uncontested in Japan, so even though they had elections, it was for all practical purposes a one-party state, kinda like NYC before Giuliani. So Japan having a more planned economy than China since Deng reformed the place is not nearly as crazy as it at first sounds.
Which leaves the question of whether the political system in China can truly withstand the cycles of a private economy. It'll be interesting to see how that works.
And then there's the demographic time bomb, a result of their one child policy. It's almost a commonplace by now to observe that China is in danger of getting old before it gets rich. Another interesting thing to watch...
I fullheartedly agree with you. You are pretty much right I think. Only thing to add is that when you get "burned" just a couple times too much most people lose the energy to look at each person at face value but find it most convenient to categorize. That seems the perception you have about how others saw you and that is how some others look at Americans, I guess.
When you read some real garbage day in day out by the same person talking about China and GS and showing he does not know anything about neither topics but only copies retarded internet blogs then you have two choices: Ignore the bastard or attempt to bring up counter arguments. But really its hard to argue with someone who has never been to China (possibly not even Asia) and clearly does not understand economics and also who talks about GS, yet has never worked for a broker or institutional financial firm. I chose to argue because some others may look at GS or China from a different perspective. I really dont care what an ass some others think I am. At least I believe I offer a fresh perspective other than " All Chinese are commies and all their books are cooked" or "GS is the root of all evil". I could not care less whether the OP minds or gets the message. I just offer an alternative view.
When you read some real garbage day in day out by the same person talking about China and GS and showing he does not know anything about neither topics but only copies retarded internet blogs then you have two choices: Ignore the bastard or attempt to bring up counter arguments. But really its hard to argue with someone who has never been to China (possibly not even Asia) and clearly does not understand economics and also who talks about GS, yet has never worked for a broker or institutional financial firm. I chose to argue because some others may look at GS or China from a different perspective. I really dont care what an ass some others think I am. At least I believe I offer a fresh perspective other than " All Chinese are commies and all their books are cooked" or "GS is the root of all evil". I could not care less whether the OP minds or gets the message. I just offer an alternative view.
Quote from tradestrong:
That's a 2 way street there though. I personally never insult any other culture and make it a point not to and to respect everybody. But I've been treated like shit by people around the world who think "they are better" than me because "I'm a dirty American", so many Americans have negative perceptions of people from other countries as well.
So whose perception is correct? Yours or mine? You see my point here? We are all in the same boat and everybody acts identical regardless of where you're from. Some people choose to propagate stereotypes and look for examples to reinforce those stereotypes while being naive to the fact that by their behavior of how they react to those stereotypes feeds conversely into the stereotype of the other person.
It's a vicious cycle that everybody participates regardless of admitting to it or not.
i would not be too worried of an aging society in China such as in Japan. Life expectancy is significantly lower than in Japan plus couples in China are much more willing AND able to have children than in Japan. China has attempted (and in most part succeeded) in fully intregrating women into the workforce, providing career opportunities, yet also offering child care and the environment is relatively friendly to raising children while both parents work. This is not the case at all in Japan.
Quote from trefoil:
China was growing rapidly, and its high savings rate is proof of that: savings correlates not so much to income as to growth in income, because if someone's income is growing rapidly, they will save more proportionately than someone who's income is high but stagnant, since the latter person is used to having that amount of money and therefore has expenses that will eat up most of that income. Which explains the disparity in savings between the US and China.
Whether it still is growing rapidly is the question as far as how much China's stats are manipulated. Best way to figure it out is indirectly, through China's demand for raw materials from the rest of the world, be it energy, copper, iron ore. By that measure China does seem to still have a strong economy. Only time will tell us for sure whether what we observe indirectly is for real.
Japan already answered the question of whether a centrally planned but privately operated economy can keep up the pace. It can't. But my impression, maybe mistaken, maybe not, is that China is actually less of a centrally planned economy than is Japan's. Remember, until just now, the Liberal Democratic Party ruled pretty much uncontested in Japan, so even though they had elections, it was for all practical purposes a one-party state, kinda like NYC before Giuliani. So Japan having a more planned economy than China since Deng reformed the place is not nearly as crazy as it at first sounds.
Which leaves the question of whether the political system in China can truly withstand the cycles of a private economy. It'll be interesting to see how that works.
And then there's the demographic time bomb, a result of their one child policy. It's almost a commonplace by now to observe that China is in danger of getting old before it gets rich. Another interesting thing to watch...
Quote from tradestrong:
That's a 2 way street there though. I personally never insult any other culture and make it a point not to and to respect everybody. But I've been treated like shit by people around the world who think "they are better" than me because "I'm a dirty American", so many Americans have negative perceptions of people from other countries as well.
So whose perception is correct? Yours or mine? You see my point here? We are all in the same boat and everybody acts identical regardless of where you're from. Some people choose to propagate stereotypes and look for examples to reinforce those stereotypes while being naive to the fact that by their behavior of how they react to those stereotypes feeds conversely into the stereotype of the other person.
It's a vicious cycle that everybody participates regardless of admitting to it or not.
Great post.