How can you even claim that technicals matter?
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Sure, but if you see market moving in a direction continuously because of a reason you understand you can make a bet where the amount gained if correct is vastly larger than the amount lost, which at 50% win rate translates to very good gains.
I.e. what's random on the daily time frame is predictable on the minute time frame and the reverse. Still, intraday is not "easy" and there's a reason most people on this site are not millionaires. (Because it's still mostly noise, it's rare with corona virus like news.)
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Wrong..!! Your chances on roulette are around 47% to win if you bet either red or black because casinos add the green 0 and green 00 to the table which is the Edge that they have over the long run to make money..!! In trading is not 50/50 either when you enter a trade,,,, due to spread , slippage and commission.
Ultimately you misunderstand technicals AND trading. Bear with me, because this isn't putting you or anyone down.
There is no crystal ball for trading. There is absolutely no "holy grail" that will tell you definitively which direction the market is going to go. Period.
Trading is all about probabilities of which way the market is MOST likely going to go. But it is not a guaranty.
However, when it comes to technicals, they absolutely can reveal to you specific areas where a market is most likely going to stall or reverse.
A long term successful trader is an artist that blends some fundamentals with a lot of technical trading. I don't have to pay much attention to the news (the exceptions are scheduled reports such as interest rate decisions and the votes; NFP; GDP; etc. etc.)
I personally close all trades just before those scheduled reports because surprises can and do happen and you can have a massive jump one direction or another. But, you also have events that happen that no one can forecast. The Twin Towers on September 11th; a Country defaulting on its loans; a plague; etc. etc. That's life and major events can happen out of nowhere.
However, you can't trade successfully long-term without technicals. It's like trying to play American Football without yard lines. If you do, you are just running around with absolutely no clue where you are or where your destination is.
Hopefully, that makes sense.
People have been saying overbought for a long time now. Yet corporate earnings still keep surprising.
Corona virus did not move the market. Neither did Iran, or fires, or any other news event. Markets move as a result of people buying and selling - nothing else. You'd be wise to stop reading news, altogether. News FOLLOWS the markets; it does not lead.
Food has no taste, it's all chemicals.
As for news, it depends how fast you get it vs the rest of market participants. Of course, in today's HFT dominated markets that leaves discretionary traders quite far back in line. You do have an advantage in small size because the big guys just can't sell everything at once regardless of fast they get the news.
People reacted to the news. The order of events went...
1. The news (coronavirus, in this case)
2. Investors selling due to fear
3. Prices drop
How can you even argue with that?