How can you even claim that technicals matter?

[Sekiyo]

If my take-profits are 2x what my stop-loss is...

Then it is 2x as likely to hit the stop-loss first.

Thus, it breaks even.

That's how I see it.

I see it this way.
But you can get an edge.
A tiny difference that make it profitable.

If you have no edge and 1Risk / 1Reward,
The odds are 50/50 but you can make it 45/55.

Then you bet % according to kelly criterion.
You adjust your risk dynamically.

However costs can kill any apriori edge.

 

[wrbtrader]

I was here several weeks ago, and I decided that there is no way that I currently know to reliably make a profit with trading. I have deleted all of my apps. I was just thinking about it today when I was looking at how recent news is what is moving markets. Not moving averages or RSI Etc.

If I could find any way to even get a slight edge above 50%, then I could form a strategy around that and find a leveraged way to trade that strategy.

Just stick to long term trades and investing. I wouldn't worry about trying to find an edge in daytrading nor engage in debates with traders about why trading to you is a roulette...it will just result in becoming a distraction to you from your long term trades / investing.

Key market events (KMEs) move the markets and I believe most retail daytraders know that but don't really know how to exploit that so they then try to use chart analysis, order flow, DOM info, technical indicators or whatever to time their way in and out of those key market events. Most won't be able to do it because they don't realize when not to trade.

If someone doesn't understand what's driving the markets, best to just step aside and leave it alone to minimize risk of ruin. Your job is to protect your financial well being and let others worry about their own financial well being.

P.S. Too many people at this forum focus on what doesn't work for them instead of focusing on what does work for them or spend too much time trying to convince others that are anonymous what should/should not work for them.

wrbtrader

 

[farmerjohn1324]

because if you play roulette your odds are < 50% and you can not change it. If you trade you are able to make your odds more than 50%. Even 51 % in your favour may be enough to succed

How can you make them greater than 50%?

 

[themickey]

How can you make them greater than 50%?

How do you drive a car and not have an accident?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

How do you drive a car and not have an accident?

You're not answering the question. You're diverting the conversation to nonsense.

 

[Sekiyo]

How can you make them greater than 50%?

You either bet on mean reversion or trend continuation.

Assess the bias and upside / downside risk.

There is some path dependence over time.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You either bet on mean reversion or trend continuation.

Assess the bias and upside / downside risk.

And this all sounds like technicals. Correct?

 

[Sekiyo]

And this all sounds like technicals. Correct?

I only use technical.
But no indicators. Just extrapolation.
Also Volume profile, DoM and tape reading.

I have a journal. I post trade but no explanation.

 

[themickey]

You're not answering the question. You're diverting the conversation to nonsense.

You're asking nonsense questions.
It's very obvious to me you are luke warm serious about trading and require spoon feeding constantly.
There is no diversion in my reply, you asked a simpleton question, you received the reply.
We already covered the ground you don't need to predict, 50% win rate is adequate for trading.

 

[wrbtrader]

You're not answering the question. You're diverting the conversation to nonsense.

Trading is not suitable for most and based upon your prior message posts...you've come to the conclusion its not suitable for you.

Its ok and just let it go...concentrate on your long term trading / investing because you're not going to find any answers here to what's bothering you about trading nor is it worth it.

Seriously, it's starting to look like you fell down the rabbit hole.

Take a deep breadth and just walk away.

wrbtrader