What do you think it will do today? And what's your prediction based on?
How can you even claim that technicals matter?
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
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What do you think it will do today? And what's your prediction based on?
Mind you, depending on what TA tool a person uses, it is not always possible to predict with high probability the day's action. But when the stars align...
Looks further weakness for Tesla, since the market futures are up but Tesla is down 30 bucks premarket. Probably another 80-100 bucks drop.
The prediction is based on the usual collapse of a stock after it has gone vertical. The collapse is symmetrical to the raise, it drops just as fast as it went up. Again, for comparison you can use Bitcoin's action between 2017 October-2018 February. Longer time frame, but same shape of the chart. (By the way I predicted Bitcoin's drop too back then.)
Or another similar chart is Volkswagen's short squeeze. The stock went up from 200 to 1000 and back in 4-5 days, IRCC.
Looks further weakness for Tesla, since the market futures are up but Tesla is down 30 bucks premarket. Probably another 80-100 bucks drop.
The prediction is based on the usual collapse of a stock after it has gone vertical. The collapse is symmetrical to the raise, it drops just as fast as it went up. Again, for comparison you can use Bitcoin's action between 2017 October-2018 February. Longer time frame, but same shape of the chart. (By the way I predicted Bitcoin's drop too back then.)
Or another similar chart is Volkswagen's short squeeze. The stock went up from 200 to 1000 and back in 4-5 days, IRCC.
Please name one strategy that requires someone to watch charts all day ?
Obviously, your just exaggerating to allow you to believe in this illusion of the all day chart reader.
Seriously, I'm sure you're not talking about 24 hrs each day. Thus, lets assume you're talking about 5 hours each day for an active trader and a few hours per day for someone trading part-time.
Yet, I will say I've met a few retail traders that are fanatics about their charts...they will be watch charts from 8 to 5 and then review charts about an hour each night. Also, I've seen people that are not trading but actively learning about the financial markets & trading probably put in the same amount of time such as University students/traders. Yet, they obviously have other activities and other classes.
The only people that may put in more time with less interruptions during the trading day are professional traders (e.g. floor traders, institutional traders and such). They're typically done for the day when regular market hours close and its not common they get home to boot up the charts again unless someone from the office calls them about an issue that will prompt them to look at some charts.
My point, the fact that everybody sleeps, many have families or relationships along with other activities that one would need to live...nobody is able to watch charts all day.
Most likely you're just consumed or were consumed with thinking about the markets most of your waking hours during the day. I've been there too 2010 - 2014 and its not good for your mental health nor good for your physical health if you do not know how release the stress from such so that you're not consumed with thinking (not watching charts) about the markets all day.
P.S. Since the beginning of the new year...most days I've been at winter activities and medical/health appointments during the trading day...associated with a surgery October last year.
I actively trade a 1 - 3 hours per day (not allowed to go beyond 3 hours) for most of those trading days although my computer is on all day to record what I missed when I'm not home.
Its just a guess, I may actively watch charts about 3 hrs each day Monday thru Friday while trading...rarely do I go beyond 1 - 2 hours of studying charts on the weekend and my schedule is primarily controlled by my children & girlfriend after 5pm.
wrbtrader
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So every time it touches the bottom line (I'm guessing that the 90wma), you buy? In this case, what's the point of your other signals?
Care to elaborate? I'm still open to back testing if I can find something that's significantly different than last one I tested.
"every time" is not a concept for a trader. The point of the post is that the 90WMA often provides support in a trend so it is a place to watch. We build trade plans on tendencies not absolutes.
Do you agree that major Fundamental events (major news release, major jobs report surprise, major company earnings surprise, etc.) make all technicals irrelevant in the immediate aftermath? These major Fundamental events are simply greater forces?
For example, if they shockingly voted to convict Trump today or something like that? Or the unemployment rate suddenly rises to 5%, etc.?
I don't pay attention to news. The only nod I give to it is I will not hold a position into a FED announcement. As a day trader, I can't be figuring out the meaning of life every time I consider a trade. I have a valid technical signal or I don't.
I bet if you're in the middle of a trade and the SWAT team showed up at the house next door to you...you'll either quickly close your trade position and be consumed for the remainder of the day about the shoot out next door.
My point, we all pay attention to the news beyond a FED event.
I remember when I first lived on the west coast...an earthquake hit...the first week I moved into my condo. First time I ever experienced an earthquake. By the time I could figure out what was going on, I was suddenly down 3 points on a 25 contract position and then got disconnected.
Many years later, I was in a chat room with several users located in New York and I was in Quebec living in a condo...getting comfortable in my new trading chair while my new house was being constructed at the ski resort. In fact, I was schedule to fly out the next day back to Chicago.
One of the users in the chat room that often wrote he had one of the best views in New York...on that particular trading day he wrote something different.
That day he wrote something hit our building. He thought it was an explosion. It looked like to him that debris was falling out of the sky (from above). I turned on to CNBC and Bloomberg radio...lots of confusing news about a plane just hit one of the towers.
Sadly, never heard from that user again in the chat room after his explosion comment. Strangely, a few more users logged into the chat room...they usually open trade positions one hour before the open. They start asking if anyone knew what's going on ?
I was so glued to the TV watching CNBC and Bloomberg...the rest of the trading day became an blur/ugly history in America and the world.
The chat room was called #IndexFutures on the FinancialChat IRC server.
Unfortunately, news does matter to a daytrader and ever since 911...I don't trade without a financial news channel on in the background (TV or radio). Another reminder is here at ET too...I remember a handful of active members at this forum recently were complaining about President Trump tweets about China / Tariffs during the trading day.
Most common complaint by them (traders that don't believe in news events that impact the markets) here at ET was about the impact those tweets were having on their trade positions.
My point, I hate ugly surprises while I'm trading especially when I see some crazy volatility spike out of nowhere. Good traders react to the news...they don't anticipate the news nor trade the news.
I've seen some crazy shit during the trading day that has severely impacted the price action by some key market event...you gotta be blind and deaf to ignore the news.
Don't misunderstand, I'm not talking about trading the news...I'm talking about news that rocks you...shakes your soul...makes you question what the hell is going on before you put on the next trade. News that makes you think about life...makes you go to your kids school to pick them up instead of letting them take the bus home.
While I'm talking about key market events...things not just fundamentals...were you in any trades before the Opening bell, earlier in the morning on September 11, 2001 ?
I was.
Something else to not misunderstand, there's other news or key events that occurs to you personally that many do not disclose to others during their trading day (e.g. news about death of a family member, phone call from the nurse at your child school that he broke his leg, wife calls you from the mall to say her water broke and she's in labor, headon car collision in front of your house in which one of the cars catches on fire in your front yard, roof repair guy falls off the roof and suffers a head injury, school calls you from a school outing in another city to tell you your 9 year old son is missing/lost, WTO riots outside your home / your auto set on fire)...
A lot of weird stuff can happen during the trading day that can easily impact your trading day because there's a lot more stuff happening beyond fundamental news especially stuff we can't control but it still is news and it does impact our trading day. It just may shake up your soul although its not fundamental news.
P.S. School found my kid...three hours later in a bathroom at the museum (he had gastro/vomiting). Actually, a teacher from another school group found him...lots of different schools that day at the museum.
wrbtrader
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