It is interesting how many posts we read complaining that news reports of Trump's tweets make markets harder to trade.
Yet news doesn't affect markets?
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How can you even claim that technicals matter?
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Yet news doesn't affect markets?
Nice house, but I wouldn't call it a mansion.
Speaking of Dropbox though, it was a great short on T/A.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/dropbox-dbx.326845/
Nice house, but I wouldn't call it a mansion.
Speaking of Dropbox though, it was a great short on T/A.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/dropbox-dbx.326845/
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TA? The thread mentioned earnings reports. That's FA.
I looked and Dropbox has never made a profit. Definitely not something I would want to own.
I'm all about fundamentals. That's why I wrote that post. But the breech of that neckline was a pure T/A indicator that played out perfectly.
Fundamentals always win in the long run, but you have to understand there exists huge amounts of dollar volume moving around daily that use technicals as an intricate part of their algorithms. These build on each other as certain points are established and in a way become self-fulfilling prophesies. I've seen it play out a 100 times. Ultimately they overshoot either up or down, and the stock then reverses.
So all that said, one would be silly to ignore T/A completely, unless you are strictly buy and hold and identify companies as such. Or short and hold like Ackman does occasionally. I guess it depends what your game is and what you are trying to accomplish.
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See what I think many don't understand is that a chart is a manifestation of what people think about a stock. That's due to a stock's fundamentals. T/A however builds upon that by using tried and proven methodology to predict its next move. Look at a chart of CMG right now. Its in a consolidation phase. People are taking profits and new buyers are coming in as the story remains strong. All things being equal, stocks tend to break upward after a consolidation phase. Now... can T/A be wrong? Sure. CMG remains one lettuce leaf away from another food scare that will tank the stock. T/A can't predict stuff like that.
But it can predict (for the retail trader) what the big money players are thinking and doing with their money in advance of a major company event like an earnings report. This kind of money has access to research and leaks that you or I don't have, so in that regard, T/A is very worthwhile. I suspect it will predict the end of this Coronavirus scare in advance of anything you or I will hear on the news and that will be manifested in a strong reversal of our indexes. That's the kind of research I'm talking about.
But whatever... I wouldn't disregard major T/A levels be it a stock or and index. Or F/A. You have to blend the two. Its a fine art. If you figure out a better way let me know.
yes sure and that is why i said that you are able to make your odds more than 50%. There are things that make trading different from roulette. Trends, support/resistance, technical analysys ?and so on.
If you buy or sell randomly some number of lots(stocks) , your odds are the same when you play roullete of course. Imo
ps. though ..came to my mind to try it. May be it works )
I do not find volume useful. If you look at long term trends, what does it matter how much volume there was on any particular day? The only useful thing about it is to determine if there is enough liquidity for your size (provided you have such a problem to begin with).
Also the volume data can be unreliable or missing for some markets.
I tend to agree just from personal experience, I think this is particularly true for futures markets(that it doesn't help). I didn't use volume when I use to trade stocks either, but I know someone that's a decent trader who say it does help them on stocks. So, won't completely poo-poo it, but it never gave me an edge.
You must figure out what institutions are doing. Its their job that you lose. That is why trading is hard and that is how its supposed to be.