Yeah, my hindsight book is doing pretty well too. However, making that call in real time was not as certain. Would you say that being short equities was/is an easy call now too?
How can this oil hedge fund giant lose so much when October was an easy short trade?
- Thread starter learner88
- Start date
You can only say oil was an easy short from October on because it's well after the fact oil has dropped from $73 to $50 a barrel....no one saw this coming....less than 1% of traders would have predicted a bear market for oil in 2018....now let's take a guess from here, is oil going to $40 or $60 first....I would bet more than half would predict $40 first before $60....
is this a linear regression chart? if so then, like most other indicators, Lin Reg only works 80% of the times i.e. 20% of times prices keep on moving in one direction despite being at extreme levels already.
Can you elaborate further on this chart and the basis of analysis.
Have you or anyone else calling this move easy/predictable got trade statements the past month to back up the claims that the short was obvious ?
Well spotted learner88. I don't know what this performance means long-term for this particular fund - oil is just one commodity in one month in one year - but the short-term outcome highlights the divide between fund managers and private retail traders.
More than a few times I have been criticised on forums for suggesting that what money managers are doing or would do or have achieved or what-have-you, is basically nothing much to do with what we're doing and how we do it. Now here's a case where what the manager did is either catastrophic or at best irrelevant. But if a private retail trader came out of October with no loss on oil, let alone no profit, that would be a pretty shabby result, maybe grounds for giving up and getting a proper job.
More than a few times I have been criticised on forums for suggesting that what money managers are doing or would do or have achieved or what-have-you, is basically nothing much to do with what we're doing and how we do it. Now here's a case where what the manager did is either catastrophic or at best irrelevant. But if a private retail trader came out of October with no loss on oil, let alone no profit, that would be a pretty shabby result, maybe grounds for giving up and getting a proper job.
The thing is, investors (and I would think that in the Andurand Commodties Fund, most of them are institutions) invest in this fund because they want exposure to oil. The manager's job (and of course he gets paid handsomely for this) is to provide this exposire to oil. When he is short oil, or in cash, he is not doing his job.
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Because most cant beat the benchmark SPY//S&P 5oo over 3 years or 10 years..... PS ;one month does not mean much, in 10 years, nor does one week.[Even in 1987 or 1999 , one month could mean much LOL!
]And with him UP[AP] more than 555.5 %% since 2008; 20 %Mo loss is not much@ all-even though thats steep for stocks. NOT a prediction, not bank insured............................................................................................................''Easy trade, on crude??''Try that for 3 years or 10 years + see if you call it easy+ then add to com-plexity every body will know your gain of loss!! Good question; i've wondered why average stock hedge fund cant even bear SPY benchmark, over 10 years!!
If OPEC goes through with production cuts at their next meeting, go for $60 per barrel. If Trump goes nuts and decides enough is enough sue to sudden-onset dementia and nukes the entire Middle East, go for $90 per barrel.
If some man named Jed goes shooting for some food in the upper plateau of Canada and pokes a hole in a hither-to-fore unknown reserve of 6 trillion barrels of oil under his house, go for $30 per barrel (AGAIN), but in a couple of years.
If some man named Jed goes shooting for some food in the upper plateau of Canada and pokes a hole in a hither-to-fore unknown reserve of 6 trillion barrels of oil under his house, go for $30 per barrel (AGAIN), but in a couple of years.